OS is weary, and so happy to be looking across his coffee cup at the sainted Mrs. OS, who has decided to tolerate him one more day, bless her.
OS knows a local newspaper writer, working for one of the county-seat papers. His county's experience paralleled ours. He reports that people are disgusted, and that they aimed their displeasure at the incumbents, many of whom have sat on their collective tooshies while their counties unwound around them. It may be a harbinger for November. In any case, OS breathes a bit easier in his county, with a new sheriff elected, replacing the one who more resembled the old Dixie model of a criminal with his own badge and police cruiser.
Over coffee, OS ran across this.
It's a thoughtful discussion of why the true unemployment rate may well be north of 20%, instead of south of 10%. Those figures actually correspond with OS's instincts and daily experience. The problem of the 'uncounted unemployed' has been with us a long-long time, and we may have reached an inflection point, where it is impossible to ignore.
OS, for his part, although far from rich, is so very grateful for the life he has been given. His spending habits, due to repair of flood damage from May, and necessary house and car repairs, have amounted to a one-man stimulus package for the local economy...
Saturday, August 7, 2010
The Oil Spill Cleanup: David Jones Of Daily Mail Visits The Gulf Coast
An extended article by David Jones of the Daily Mail, detailing his recent visit to the Gulf Coast to view the damage caused by the BP oil spill.
He makes two or three cogent points:
1. It could have been much much worse.
2. BP (and Heyward in particular) blundered at the beginning, and thus made themselves the target for Obama and company's cynical scapegoating.
3. Even at that, BP emerges with its reputation much more intact than Obama and company.
OS will keep repeating--BP has been around a lot longer than the clowns in the White House and Congress, and have been successful, if not saintly. They'll still be around long after this particular clown show leaves town.
And, for the record, OS is accumulating BP stock, while it is still cheap. Gonna make him some money, honey, on the back of The One's ignorant venality.
He makes two or three cogent points:
1. It could have been much much worse.
2. BP (and Heyward in particular) blundered at the beginning, and thus made themselves the target for Obama and company's cynical scapegoating.
3. Even at that, BP emerges with its reputation much more intact than Obama and company.
OS will keep repeating--BP has been around a lot longer than the clowns in the White House and Congress, and have been successful, if not saintly. They'll still be around long after this particular clown show leaves town.
And, for the record, OS is accumulating BP stock, while it is still cheap. Gonna make him some money, honey, on the back of The One's ignorant venality.
Isn't It Great To Take A Vacation! Just Ask Mrs. Obama
The UK Daily Mail gives us the breathless coverage.
Michelle Obama today faced a fresh wave of attacks over her lavish break in Spain with 40 friends, which could easily cost U.S. taxpayers a staggering £50,000 a day.
The First Lady has been lambasted for her extravagance at a time when the economy is still struggling. One blogger went so far as to brand her a modern-day Marie Antoinette.
And her critics will be further annoyed when they learn that the president's wife had a Spanish beach closed off today so that she, her daughter and their entourage could go for a swim.
Spanish police cleared off a stretch of beach at the Villa Padierna Hotel in Marbella after the Obamas had finished a busy day of sightseeing.
Hey, girlfriend! A girl's gotta have girlfriends! Ya'll just trippin', gettin' all upset 'bout this. It's cool, really ya'll. After all, it's hard work being the wife of The Winner of the 2010 Nobel Peace Prize. Just chill, and let her do the same, ya'll.
The private sector of the US economy created 71,000 jobs last month. 120,000 people enter the workforce every month, due to the demographic math of Birth-minus-Death-plus-Immigration.
No worries, ya'll.
Michelle Obama today faced a fresh wave of attacks over her lavish break in Spain with 40 friends, which could easily cost U.S. taxpayers a staggering £50,000 a day.
The First Lady has been lambasted for her extravagance at a time when the economy is still struggling. One blogger went so far as to brand her a modern-day Marie Antoinette.
And her critics will be further annoyed when they learn that the president's wife had a Spanish beach closed off today so that she, her daughter and their entourage could go for a swim.
Spanish police cleared off a stretch of beach at the Villa Padierna Hotel in Marbella after the Obamas had finished a busy day of sightseeing.
Hey, girlfriend! A girl's gotta have girlfriends! Ya'll just trippin', gettin' all upset 'bout this. It's cool, really ya'll. After all, it's hard work being the wife of The Winner of the 2010 Nobel Peace Prize. Just chill, and let her do the same, ya'll.
The private sector of the US economy created 71,000 jobs last month. 120,000 people enter the workforce every month, due to the demographic math of Birth-minus-Death-plus-Immigration.
No worries, ya'll.
Friday, August 6, 2010
Incumbency Was A Disadvantage In Tonight's Elections, Part Deux
OS woke up to the early news on the local stations, to check the weather for today's long drive north.
Eight county mayoral seats in the middle counties of Tennessee turned over. Incumbents were booted. In Tennessee, many of these folks serve for decades, transforming each county into a personal plantation.
In the governor's GOP primary race, Zach Wamp, Congressman from Chattanooga, enjoying the support of much of the Religious Right, lost by a wiiiiide margin after almost two years of campaigning. Voters remembered that he voted for TARP, after he was swamped by his constituents begging him to vote against it. That sort of stuff comes back to haunt. People have memories, after all, and waited for the opportunity to register their displeasure.
Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey, a GOP institution in the legislature, came in a distant third. OS met Mr. Ramsey a few weeks ago as he came through town politikin'. He was, well, creepy, not anyone who should be allowed to actually run anything large.
Bill Haslam, mayor of Knoxville, who actually has successfully managed budgets, won the GOP primary. In his case, the public experience worked in his favor.
OS thinks the serfs may be irritated, that the natives may be getting restless.
Here's hoping.
Eight county mayoral seats in the middle counties of Tennessee turned over. Incumbents were booted. In Tennessee, many of these folks serve for decades, transforming each county into a personal plantation.
In the governor's GOP primary race, Zach Wamp, Congressman from Chattanooga, enjoying the support of much of the Religious Right, lost by a wiiiiide margin after almost two years of campaigning. Voters remembered that he voted for TARP, after he was swamped by his constituents begging him to vote against it. That sort of stuff comes back to haunt. People have memories, after all, and waited for the opportunity to register their displeasure.
Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey, a GOP institution in the legislature, came in a distant third. OS met Mr. Ramsey a few weeks ago as he came through town politikin'. He was, well, creepy, not anyone who should be allowed to actually run anything large.
Bill Haslam, mayor of Knoxville, who actually has successfully managed budgets, won the GOP primary. In his case, the public experience worked in his favor.
OS thinks the serfs may be irritated, that the natives may be getting restless.
Here's hoping.
Incumbency Was A Disadvantage In Tonight's Elections
OS lives in a little county west of Nashville, which has stumbled along for years. It's a beautiful and utterly frustrating place to live.
The frustration boiled over today at the polls, as almost every incumbent had his or her head presented on a silver charger.
It wasn't even close, ya'll.
Meanwhile, Steve Fincher handily won the TN 8th District GOP Congressional primary.
Roy Herron won the Democrat nomination. Fincher's primary total far outstripped the entirety of the Democrat vote in their race. The three top GOP contenders together really swamped the Dem's numbers.
Here's hoping Mr. Fincher knows how to be a gentleman, and that if he's elected, he'll mature in office. In the end, OS just couldn't put the 'X' by the man's name, and no, t'ain't your business to know who he voted for.
The frustration boiled over today at the polls, as almost every incumbent had his or her head presented on a silver charger.
It wasn't even close, ya'll.
Meanwhile, Steve Fincher handily won the TN 8th District GOP Congressional primary.
Roy Herron won the Democrat nomination. Fincher's primary total far outstripped the entirety of the Democrat vote in their race. The three top GOP contenders together really swamped the Dem's numbers.
Here's hoping Mr. Fincher knows how to be a gentleman, and that if he's elected, he'll mature in office. In the end, OS just couldn't put the 'X' by the man's name, and no, t'ain't your business to know who he voted for.
Dean Dad: Enrollment At Community College
Dean Dad reports a new phenomenon in his institution, a community college he heads.
This Fall, with just a few weeks to go before the start of classes, we’re seeing a weird bifurcation. Applications for enrollment, and applications for financial aid, are both up significantly even when compared to last year. But students who have actually registered are significantly down. Put differently, the number of students who started trying to attend and then vanished is dramatically higher than it has been in past years.
The folks in Admissions have done follow-up calls to the folks who’ve applied and taken their placement tests but not registered, to see what happened. I was hoping to hear that the most common reason was something like “you were my safety school, but my first choice school came through with a great offer.” Instead, the most common answer was “my unemployment ran out.”
This is where the “education as private good” idea has real social costs. If you have a significant population that just can’t find work because the economy is in the tank, and that population would like to go to college but doesn’t have the income for living expenses -- financial aid is great for tuition and such, but doesn’t do much for living expenses -- then what would you have that population do?
There is discussion that ThePeopleInChargeOfSuchThings have decided to define a 10% unemployment rate as 'The New Normal'. With a 10% 'official' rate translating to an actual 15%-16% rate--well, ya'll, that's a prescription for cultural disaster.
We don't want to go there, and we sure as shootin' don't want to define what we now experience as 'normal'. Stroll through a rural WalMart on a Friday evening, and then tell yourself this is what you can accept as The New Normal.
This Fall, with just a few weeks to go before the start of classes, we’re seeing a weird bifurcation. Applications for enrollment, and applications for financial aid, are both up significantly even when compared to last year. But students who have actually registered are significantly down. Put differently, the number of students who started trying to attend and then vanished is dramatically higher than it has been in past years.
The folks in Admissions have done follow-up calls to the folks who’ve applied and taken their placement tests but not registered, to see what happened. I was hoping to hear that the most common reason was something like “you were my safety school, but my first choice school came through with a great offer.” Instead, the most common answer was “my unemployment ran out.”
This is where the “education as private good” idea has real social costs. If you have a significant population that just can’t find work because the economy is in the tank, and that population would like to go to college but doesn’t have the income for living expenses -- financial aid is great for tuition and such, but doesn’t do much for living expenses -- then what would you have that population do?
There is discussion that ThePeopleInChargeOfSuchThings have decided to define a 10% unemployment rate as 'The New Normal'. With a 10% 'official' rate translating to an actual 15%-16% rate--well, ya'll, that's a prescription for cultural disaster.
We don't want to go there, and we sure as shootin' don't want to define what we now experience as 'normal'. Stroll through a rural WalMart on a Friday evening, and then tell yourself this is what you can accept as The New Normal.
Thursday, August 5, 2010
Jesse, Bless Him, Shares A Tale You Must Read
Just when OS suspects he might be able to assemble a few memorable words in sequence, along comes the urbane Jesse, dashing his hopes yet again.
Jesse introduces a wonderful essay in his own wonderful way.
Read this bit first.
Then read the whole essay he references.
Wonderful stuff, in the Hunter Thompson tradition.
Jesse introduces a wonderful essay in his own wonderful way.
Read this bit first.
Then read the whole essay he references.
Wonderful stuff, in the Hunter Thompson tradition.
Wednesday, August 4, 2010
Whoops!: Katie Couric As Katie Couric (So Much For Feminist Sisterhood, Ya'll)
Somebody at CBS, beginning with Ms. Couric, gots a whole-lotta-'splainin'-to-do, Lucy.
At the same time, OS is most grateful no cameras were running at the worst moments of his last ten years or so.
Play nice out there, ya'll. It's better for everybody.
A Conversation With Steve Fincher: TN District 8 GOP Congressional Primary Candidate
OS enjoyed lunch today at the diner in his small town. He especially enjoyed the company of Mrs. OS across the table, ever amazed that she still tolerates him after all these years. It must be love. No other explanation fits.
Along strolls an enthusiastic gent, handing out a candidate flyer for Steve Fincher, candidate for Congress. OS barely looked up from his plate, until he noticed that the enthusiastic gent was Mr. Fincher himself, who graciously sat down and allowed himself to be questioned.
He's thirty-seven, with three kids, a farmer, gospel music singer and Methodist from a small town in the center of the district. He's been well-coached, perhaps over-coached, and Heaven knows the man must be weary of talking to strangers who interrogate him.
We tried to convey a couple of ideas to him, and it's not certain we were successful.
1. The 1994 GOP Freshman Class of House members absolutely blew it. They simply muscled the Dems away from the trough and began their own feeding frenzy. Our disdain for George Bush the Younger was unmistakable. We were hostile in tone when speaking of this. He agreed, and agreed, and agreed, but we're not sure he understood the import of what he was hearing. OS asked him point blank if he was willing to look that horse's-patooty John Boehner in the eye and say 'NO'. He said he would.
2. Mrs. OS posed a more crucial question (she's a lot wiser than her husband). When push comes to shove, and you have to prioritize between your social conservatism and your fiscal conservatism, which way will you go? What's the more crucial question in your mind? He began to talk about his core conservative values, 100% pro-life, etc. Again, he's really been coached. She was attempting to find out if this nice man has been so captured by the Religious Right that he doesn't see the Bigger Moral Question, that the government is in danger of collapsing the culture itself, making other arguments moot. The Religious Right types are a biiiiig part of the problem, with real tin-foil-hat wing-nuts scattered liberally throughout their ranks. They tolerate no differences of opinion, and take no prisoners. He did say that he was running because he thinks the country is about to burn down, and that he is concerned about his children's futures. He is sincere and earnest, but we were looking for a more measured quality of mind. Perhaps in time, he'll develop that.
3. We asked him his age (37), and where he plans to be at age 50. He plans to be home by that time, no more than six terms, if memory serves correctly.
This primary is a very close call, and OS will likely vote for this gent. John Tanner is thankfully departing, a member of the YellowDog Democrat crowd that has treated this part of the world like a plantation. Mr. Fincher has some real appeal, because with young children and a family business to run, he still has some true existential and emotional skin in the game. He also would have enough energy to juggle all those conflicting responsibilities. His opponents create much, much more serious misgivings in OS's mind. But it will not be an enthusiastic vote.
OS hopes someday to talk with him again, post-primary. Fincher didn't adequately answer the culture-forms-economy questions, and perhaps OS needs to phrase them more clearly.
Roy Herron, his likely Democrat opponent, is someone OS has known in the past. He is a thoughtful man of real character, but sadly has hitched his wagon to the wrong team of horses, like AlGore, Clinton, Obama, and company. OS would be very aggrieved to witness ad hominem attacks upon the man, because it would be more indicative of the GOP candidate's character than Mr. Herron's. OS can't vote for Roy, but doesn't think he ever deserves to be trashed. It is likely that the typical RNC down-and-dirty approach would doom the GOP candidate.
Ya'll play nice out there.
By the way, OS's comment board is still open for the OS Candidate Challenge, TN 8 GOP Primary:
50 words or less from each candidate, explaining positively why he would serve the district best, and no circular firing squads allowed. No attacks, no name-calling, no nothing like that. If you do, your post will stay up, be memorialized, and OS will personally throw verbal rotten eggs at the candidate.
Along strolls an enthusiastic gent, handing out a candidate flyer for Steve Fincher, candidate for Congress. OS barely looked up from his plate, until he noticed that the enthusiastic gent was Mr. Fincher himself, who graciously sat down and allowed himself to be questioned.
He's thirty-seven, with three kids, a farmer, gospel music singer and Methodist from a small town in the center of the district. He's been well-coached, perhaps over-coached, and Heaven knows the man must be weary of talking to strangers who interrogate him.
We tried to convey a couple of ideas to him, and it's not certain we were successful.
1. The 1994 GOP Freshman Class of House members absolutely blew it. They simply muscled the Dems away from the trough and began their own feeding frenzy. Our disdain for George Bush the Younger was unmistakable. We were hostile in tone when speaking of this. He agreed, and agreed, and agreed, but we're not sure he understood the import of what he was hearing. OS asked him point blank if he was willing to look that horse's-patooty John Boehner in the eye and say 'NO'. He said he would.
2. Mrs. OS posed a more crucial question (she's a lot wiser than her husband). When push comes to shove, and you have to prioritize between your social conservatism and your fiscal conservatism, which way will you go? What's the more crucial question in your mind? He began to talk about his core conservative values, 100% pro-life, etc. Again, he's really been coached. She was attempting to find out if this nice man has been so captured by the Religious Right that he doesn't see the Bigger Moral Question, that the government is in danger of collapsing the culture itself, making other arguments moot. The Religious Right types are a biiiiig part of the problem, with real tin-foil-hat wing-nuts scattered liberally throughout their ranks. They tolerate no differences of opinion, and take no prisoners. He did say that he was running because he thinks the country is about to burn down, and that he is concerned about his children's futures. He is sincere and earnest, but we were looking for a more measured quality of mind. Perhaps in time, he'll develop that.
3. We asked him his age (37), and where he plans to be at age 50. He plans to be home by that time, no more than six terms, if memory serves correctly.
This primary is a very close call, and OS will likely vote for this gent. John Tanner is thankfully departing, a member of the YellowDog Democrat crowd that has treated this part of the world like a plantation. Mr. Fincher has some real appeal, because with young children and a family business to run, he still has some true existential and emotional skin in the game. He also would have enough energy to juggle all those conflicting responsibilities. His opponents create much, much more serious misgivings in OS's mind. But it will not be an enthusiastic vote.
OS hopes someday to talk with him again, post-primary. Fincher didn't adequately answer the culture-forms-economy questions, and perhaps OS needs to phrase them more clearly.
Roy Herron, his likely Democrat opponent, is someone OS has known in the past. He is a thoughtful man of real character, but sadly has hitched his wagon to the wrong team of horses, like AlGore, Clinton, Obama, and company. OS would be very aggrieved to witness ad hominem attacks upon the man, because it would be more indicative of the GOP candidate's character than Mr. Herron's. OS can't vote for Roy, but doesn't think he ever deserves to be trashed. It is likely that the typical RNC down-and-dirty approach would doom the GOP candidate.
Ya'll play nice out there.
By the way, OS's comment board is still open for the OS Candidate Challenge, TN 8 GOP Primary:
50 words or less from each candidate, explaining positively why he would serve the district best, and no circular firing squads allowed. No attacks, no name-calling, no nothing like that. If you do, your post will stay up, be memorialized, and OS will personally throw verbal rotten eggs at the candidate.
OS Is A Fan Of Michael Schrage: Two Recent Essays To Consider
So much economic writing makes the readers' eyes glaze over, as so many writers labor to appear even-handed and fair. Rather like the hamsters on the Kia ad: 'You could give this, or you could give her that!.' Ennui soon sets in.
Michael Schrage, in his musings on the Harvard Biz Review site, does not fall for that stuff. He actually has a point of view, and seeks to make sense, instead of impressing the reader with his erudition and ability to fabricate charts. OS, simple mind that he is, appreciates that approach.
So, two recent posts to share, and hopefully this will encourage the vast and swelling hordes of OS's loyal posse to read more Michael Schrage.
First: Higher Education Is Overrated; Skills Aren't
Thanks, Mr. Schrage, for stating the obvious, pithily.
We have a huge branding issue. Pundits and policy-makers jabber about the need to educate people to compete in knowledge-intensive industries. But knowledge doesn't represent even half the intensity of this industrial challenge. What really matters are skills. The grievously undervalued human capital issue here isn't quality education in school but quality of skills in markets. Establishing correlations, let alone causality, between them is hard. (Michael Polanyi's classic "Personal Knowledge" brilliantly articulates this.) A computer science PhD doesn't make one a good programmer. There is a world of difference between getting an "A" in robotics class and winning a "bot" competition. MIT's motto isn't Mens et Manus (Latin for Mind and Hand) by accident. Great knowledge is not the same as great skill. Worse yet, decent knowledge doesn't guarantee even decent skills. Unfortunately, educrats and eduzealots behave as if college English degrees mean their recipients can write and that philosophy degrees mean their holders can rigorously think. That's not true.
Second: The Hireless Recovery
Pick any recovery-shaped letter you like. Economic policymakers would still be wondering: Where did the jobs go?
Alas, that's exactly the wrong question. The better question: Where did the employers go?
America doesn't have a jobless recovery; it has a hireless recovery. Don't confuse them. After all, you first have to get hired to have a job. Organizations may be desperate to grow, but they overwhelmingly lack the desire to hire. Fewer people are working longer, harder and (presumably) smarter hours. So many firms have proven so productive even after several rounds of layoffs, that serious economists wonder if, in fact, large slices of the workforce actually offer ZMP — Zero Marginal Productivity — to their enterprise. In other words, the Great Recession reveals many employees not just to be worth less but economically worthless. Ouch.
[he continues....]
For most organizations, people are a means and medium to an end. They're not hiring employees, they're hiring value creation. If they can get that value — or most of it — from contingency workers, outsourcing, automation, innovative processes or capital investment, why wouldn't they? If tweaking a process or program empowers three people to do the work of five, then tweakonomics is the way to go. The profound difference between today and 2005 is that good hires looked like better investments than great tweaks back then. In 2010, good tweaks look like better bets than even great hires.
He tells us stuff we don't gladly hear. But, it's stuff we need to hear.
HT Mr. Schrage.
Michael Schrage, in his musings on the Harvard Biz Review site, does not fall for that stuff. He actually has a point of view, and seeks to make sense, instead of impressing the reader with his erudition and ability to fabricate charts. OS, simple mind that he is, appreciates that approach.
So, two recent posts to share, and hopefully this will encourage the vast and swelling hordes of OS's loyal posse to read more Michael Schrage.
First: Higher Education Is Overrated; Skills Aren't
Thanks, Mr. Schrage, for stating the obvious, pithily.
We have a huge branding issue. Pundits and policy-makers jabber about the need to educate people to compete in knowledge-intensive industries. But knowledge doesn't represent even half the intensity of this industrial challenge. What really matters are skills. The grievously undervalued human capital issue here isn't quality education in school but quality of skills in markets. Establishing correlations, let alone causality, between them is hard. (Michael Polanyi's classic "Personal Knowledge" brilliantly articulates this.) A computer science PhD doesn't make one a good programmer. There is a world of difference between getting an "A" in robotics class and winning a "bot" competition. MIT's motto isn't Mens et Manus (Latin for Mind and Hand) by accident. Great knowledge is not the same as great skill. Worse yet, decent knowledge doesn't guarantee even decent skills. Unfortunately, educrats and eduzealots behave as if college English degrees mean their recipients can write and that philosophy degrees mean their holders can rigorously think. That's not true.
Second: The Hireless Recovery
Pick any recovery-shaped letter you like. Economic policymakers would still be wondering: Where did the jobs go?
Alas, that's exactly the wrong question. The better question: Where did the employers go?
America doesn't have a jobless recovery; it has a hireless recovery. Don't confuse them. After all, you first have to get hired to have a job. Organizations may be desperate to grow, but they overwhelmingly lack the desire to hire. Fewer people are working longer, harder and (presumably) smarter hours. So many firms have proven so productive even after several rounds of layoffs, that serious economists wonder if, in fact, large slices of the workforce actually offer ZMP — Zero Marginal Productivity — to their enterprise. In other words, the Great Recession reveals many employees not just to be worth less but economically worthless. Ouch.
[he continues....]
For most organizations, people are a means and medium to an end. They're not hiring employees, they're hiring value creation. If they can get that value — or most of it — from contingency workers, outsourcing, automation, innovative processes or capital investment, why wouldn't they? If tweaking a process or program empowers three people to do the work of five, then tweakonomics is the way to go. The profound difference between today and 2005 is that good hires looked like better investments than great tweaks back then. In 2010, good tweaks look like better bets than even great hires.
He tells us stuff we don't gladly hear. But, it's stuff we need to hear.
HT Mr. Schrage.
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