The culture shapes the economy long before the economy shapes the culture. Where should we devote our energies?
Saturday, January 9, 2010
The Good News Imbedded In The Bleak News
This man knows his math, his history, and knows how to make a chart that demonstrates both math and history.
Recently, he shared his reasoning that there is no real economic recovery. He lays out his reasoning here. And his chart.
He tells us that until The Consumer begins to spend again, we're not in for much of a recovery, and he's probably right on that point. The Consumer is not out buying stuff. He's busily paying down debt as fast as he can. An 18% year-over-year drop in consumer credit. That's some 14 billion dollars gone away from last year, i.e. money not spent on goods or services.
That's not good news for anyone looking for things to turn around quickly, out here in the real world, on-the-ground economy.
But it really is good news, because as families dump their debt, (hopefully to zero), they will begin to buy again, with cash. Their lack of fear of the future just might bring some sense of confidence back, cuz people who aren't deeply in debt can face the world knowing that they need never be hostages again.
They will also develop a lack of tolerance for their elected representatives, who think that restraint of spending is for losers.
And that could be the really good news!
'Scuze Me, But We Seem To Have Misplaced...
The US government sold a whole boatload of debt last year, and inquiring minds looked on in some real amazement as each auction went off without a hitch.
So they kept on inquiring, and noticed something worthy of inquiry in the 2009 auctions:
No one seems to know who bought some 520 billion dollars worth of government debt.
It wasn't foreign interests. They bought the biggest block, nearly 700 billion dollars worth.
Then there is The Fed, who bought some 286 billion.
Then there is the amorphous 'Household Sector', who account for some 528 billion dollars.
But, it's not clearly defined who the 'Household Sector' actually is, and that's what inquiring minds want to know. $528 billion is still a lot of money, even here in the Land of Hope and Change.
So, if you trip across it, make sure you let the proper folks know. They might be missing their 528 billion in T-Bills. I know I sure would.
Friday, January 8, 2010
OldSouth's Disclaimer
OldSouth is gratified to see that readers from far-flung places are checking in to read his ramblings.
Since we live in an age of too many lawyers, and too many idiots who are their potential clients, I've posted the following disclaimer at the bottom of the page, and here for the record, just in case someone might claim they missed it.
Here we go:
Since he tends to rant at times about things economic, OldSouth wishes to remind you that he is the last person on earth you should look to for economic advice, and he sure as shootin' is not handing any out, in any form, directly or indirectly. He's doing well to keep his own enterprise together, and has no wisdom to offer about yours.
If you read something here, and are inspired to buy or sell something, or launch a new business, or get married or divorced, or whatever, and things don't work out well, I'm not the person to blame. You probably are; but sometimes, things just don't work out like we plan. Don't ask me how I know this.
If you are inspired to do something because of something you read here, and something happy results, feel free to tell your friends and neighbors.
If you can't understand this plain language, you need to be doing something else with your time anyway, like earning your GED.
[end of disclaimer]
God bless us everyone, and may He always preserve and bless the State of Tennessee, and the United States of America.
The Unanticipated Obvious Question
In May, Randy Painter and his nine siblings were taken aback to learn their 65-year-old family business—two Chrysler Group LLC dealerships in Nephi and St. George, Utah—would be terminated as part of the auto maker's restructuring. The dealerships, opened by their grandfather and father, respectively, were historically profitable and had long been an integral part of their small communities. Since June, they have struggled to convert their stores into used-car dealerships—and, like many rejected dealers, they still question the logic behind Chrysler's decision.
Let's remember Spring 2009: President Hopey-Changey and company rammed a pre-packaged 'bankruptcy', which violated much of the federal code, through the court of a willing judge, and what remained of Chrysler was handed to Fiat, in a no-cash transaction. The bondholders, who held bonds that told them in black-letter type they were first in line in the event of a bankruptcy, were shoved to the end of the line, behind the UAW. Many of the dealers, the ones tasked with selling the vehicles, were told that their franchises were being revoked arbitrarily, and in some cases, handed arbitrarily to other dealers; in one case, the franchise was handed to a dealership ACROSS THE ***!!!*** STREET from the former dealership.
Without notice. Without compensation. They were simply told to take a hike. Hope and Change have spoken.
Many of these dealers were multi-generation family businesses in smaller cities around the country. You know, the people who for eighty years had provided jobs, funded the local charities and churches, sponsored the softball teams, etc. etc.
All gone. You guys go away, even if you were making good money. Hope and Change have arrived, and your services are no longer needed. TV screens across the land were filled with the images of devastated family business owners standing in front of their empty dealerships sporting Chrysler signs, some of them freshly purchased a few months before, at the insistence of Chrysler Corporation.
Then comes Cash-for-Clunkers. Toyota wins, Ford wins, even GM sells some, and Chrysler sales barely move. Then things got worse.
Even the press release hacks at Chrysler had to admit the truth at the bottom of the page after several paragraphs of optimistic verbiage.
Did anyone, anywhere in President Hopey-Changey's staff ever anticipate the potential car buyer's obvious question:
Ruh-Roh, Timmy! Even the East Coast MSM Types Are Calling Four Your Scalp!
You know it's going to be a bad day at the office when...followed by a list of funny scenarios, such as Mike Wallace and his Sixty Minutes crew showing up at your door. (OldSouth is indeed, not young...).
So, Timmy: You know it's going to be a bad day at the office when...the Atlantic Magazine, that bastion of East-Coast-Old-Boy-WeAllWentToHarvardBrownOrYale-Liberal-Thought decides that your scurvy ass is a liability, and you are to be voted off the island!
Turns out that no one, and I mean not one member in this club, is amused by the news that you used the AIG rescue as a means of bailing out your bankster buddies while chair of the New York Fed.
Timmy, your mistake was that you over-reached. As long as the scams were relatively small, private, and no one in the club got hurt, it was ok. I mean, those poor schlubs in Flyover Country can be fleeced at will with blow-up mortgages and credit card scams. They vote Republican, if they vote at all, so they don't matter. But this mess lowered the net worth of the membership, not to mention the endowments of the Ivy League schools, where they donate heavily to reserve spots for their under-achieving fourth-generation legacy offspring.
You messed with the wrong people's money, and you are definitely off the invitation list, Timmy.
It is now only a matter of time, and the timing of the announcement. Timmy's toast, he just hasn't left the building yet.
Better get that book deal in place while you can, Mr. Secretary, assuming any New York publisher will return your calls.
The Theology Of The Great Bubble
OldSouth has always always believed that culture shapes economy; and that behind culture stands theology, even if it's the anti-theology of atheism. OldSouth also thinks that heresy is no laughing matter, that it destroys lives and cultures.
Rosin refers to Jackson Lears, author of Something for Nothing. This paragraph states the problem succinctly:
...Jackson Lears describes two starkly different manifestations of the American dream, each intertwined with religious faith. The traditional Protestant hero is a self-made man. He is disciplined and hardworking, and believes that his “success comes through careful cultivation of (implicitly Protestant) virtues in cooperation with a Providential plan.” The hero of the second American narrative is a kind of gambling man—a “speculative confidence man,” Lears calls him, who prefers “risky ventures in real estate,” and a more “fluid, mobile democracy.” The self-made man imagines a coherent universe where earthly rewards match merits. The confidence man lives in a culture of chance, with “grace as a kind of spiritual luck, a free gift from God.” The Gilded Age launched the myth of the self-made man, as the Rockefellers and other powerful men in the pews connected their wealth to their own virtue. In these boom-and-crash years, the more reckless alter ego dominates.
The 'second American narrative' is soooo seductive, and has become ubiquitous in American church life. Like the original serpent, the message is often subtle: God loves you better than that pagan down the street. Step out on faith, and He'll be there to catch you! They purposefully ignore the entire Wisdom tradition of the Old Testament, the very tradition that gave birth to Christianity. Some of the purveyors of the heresy even blatantly connect donations to their ministry to the rewards of earthly wealth for the faithful donor.
It's a far cry from that crucial moment of history when that certain rabbi from Nazareth sweat blood and prayed, 'Not my will, but thine, be done.'
Culture forms economy. Our view of God and mankind form culture.
Let's be careful out there. That same rabbi also issued warnings about wolves among the flock, and wheat and tares, and trees that bear good and bad fruit...
Thursday, January 7, 2010
The Woman Who Would Succeed Ted Kennedy
And she reminds us that one of its worst actors was Martha Coakley, the Democrat nominee for the seat left vacant by the demise of Ted Kennedy. The tale is long and chilling, and worth considering.
Gerald Amirault had been imprisoned for fifteen years for crimes that never occurred. Martha Coakley, as a district attorney, had every reason to know this was the case, and yet lobbied against his clemency petition in order to make her feminist prosecutorial 'bones'.
The man languished in prison for three years more.
Imagine this woman in the Senate...
Frozen Gore: Art As Theatre In Fairbanks
'Frozen Gore' has returned for a second year, thanks to two businessmen in Fairbanks, Alaska.
Yes, the Inventor Of The Internet, who believes the earth's core to be millions of degrees hot; who managed to give the impression that he had graduated both the law and divinity schools of Vanderbilt University(when he has, in reality, not); the Presidential candidate who brought us the 'hanging chad'; who darkly warned us of the disappearance of the polar bear(whose population is actually growing handily, thank-you); Bill Clinton's apologist and lap-dog; the Guru of Copenhagen; the winner of the Nobel Peace Prize; and the inspiration for the tens of thousands of 'Gore-Free Tennessee' signs that blanketed his home state in the fall of 2000--this very Al Gore has once again been memorialized in a large ice sculpture.
This year's sculpture features an avant-garde 'live-theatre' element: When the owners hook the exhaust of their pickup truck to the sculpture, AlGore blows smoke! Sort of a realistic touch, don't-cha-know!
Now, 'scuse me, the snow's about to begin here in Tennessee, in the coldest winter since the late 1970's. Need to put on some more hot cider, and check the pot of chili.
Don't think this is what AlGore exactly predicted for 2010...
Wednesday, January 6, 2010
The True Unsung Hero
Think on that one for a moment! Think about how we love our kids, advocate for them, wish to see them always prosper and never come to harm.
What if it were my son, for instance, that decided that the KKK and Aryan Nation held the 'secret to life', and that he felt obligated to target blacks, Jews and Catholics for violent elimination from society? Even after a comfortable, even privileged background and education? Would I have the cojones to call the FBI and let them know? I hope so.
I would also hope that the FBI would have the common sense to listen and make certain the word got out before someone was harmed, beginning with my son. That's where things broke down, on our end, our people, our intelligence service, our law enforcement, our White House living in denial that there really are dangerous followers of The Prophet out there, too busy feeding the banksters to notice.
But, another general breakdown has taken place in the parts of the world where Islam prevails:
Finding people with the courage to confront that breakdown — the one identified by the father, the one that lures young Muslims away from the mainstream into a willingness to commit suicide against innocent civilians as part of some jihadist power fantasy — is what matters most right now.
Yes, we need to fix our intelligence. Yes, we absolutely must live up to our own ideals, as President Obama is trying to do in banning torture and closing Guantánamo Bay. We can’t let this “war on terrorism” consume us. We can’t let our country become just The United States of Fighting Terrorism and nothing more. We are the people of July 4th — not Sept. 11th.
But even if we do all that, no laws or walls we put up will ever be sufficient to protect us unless the Arab and Muslim societies from whence these suicide bombers emerge erect political, religious and moral restraints as well — starting by shaming suicide bombers and naming their actions “murder,” not “martyrdom.”
Finally, finally, someone from MSM/ObamaLand is saying what the rest of us have been saying for a long, long time: There is a big problem out there in IslamWorld, and until they put their house in order, this thing will not end peacefully.
Finally.
The Not-Ugly American
With so many of us living with one foot in each place via business and family, this is a good read:
The first thing I ever heard about Americans was that they all carried guns. Then, when I came across people who’d had direct contact with this ferocious-sounding tribe, I learned that they were actually rather friendly. At university, friends who had traveled in the United States came back with more detailed stories, not just of the friendliness of Americans but also of their hospitality (which, in our quaint English way, was translated into something close to gullibility). When I finally got to America myself, I found that not only were the natives friendly and hospitable, they were also incredibly polite. No one tells you this about Americans, but once you notice it, it becomes one of their defining characteristics, especially when they’re abroad.
The entire piece here. Enjoy.
And, ya'll come back and see us, ya heah?
We're Making Progress! Dodd And Dorgan Hit The Road
Reality is settling in on the Senators who followed Himself over the cliff. The voters back home are not amused.
Chris Dodd, especially, would be facing questions about why he took a sweetheart deal from Countrywide Mortgage, one of the most notorious of the subprime operators. The Wall Street Journal covered his 'disclosure' of the deal last February, in which reporters were allowed to view, but not copy or carry away any portion of, what he purported to be the documents attached to the sweetheart loan.
'Heck, we'd all love the kind of courtesy that would have saved Mr. Dodd $75,000 over the life of the two loans he refinanced to the tune of $800,000, according to an analysis by Portfolio magazine. The savings came from rock-bottom interest rates and a free "float-down" -- the right to borrow at a lower rate if interest rates fall before you've closed on the loan.'
The shame of it all is that the questions won't be coming from a federal prosecutor--Prez HopeyChangey's Justice Department has his back on that problem, so long as he votes the party line until retirement.
As for Senator Dorgan--well, North Dakota is a huge piece of real estate with not many people. And the people that do live there are a hearty, self reliant lot. On a state-wide level, they avoided many of the sins of the past twenty/thirty years, and have come through the Great Recession relatively intact, with oil drilling now underway in many parts of the state. The good Senator would have great trouble justifying his support of the banksters and an administration that would love nothing more than to shutter the entire oil industry. Look for a Republican to replace him.
And, speaking of Republicans to replace someone in the Senate, there is still time to send a few shekels in the direction of Scott Brown, the GOP candidate who appears to be closing on the presumed Democrat heir to Chappaquiddick Teddy's seat.
If Brown wins, Prez HopeyChangey loses his sixtieth vote for the health-care monstrosity, and cap-and-trade, and the next round of bail-outs, and the next stimulus, and the confirmation of Helicopter Ben, etc. etc... Senator Brown could be a game changer, at least until the Dems finish suborning GOP Senator Snowe of Maine.
Even if he comes close, Teddy's heir will have to be looking over her shoulder at an electorate that could easily turn on her. Every little bit helps!
The Republican National Committee has been, let us say, lukewarm in its participation and support of Mr. Brown. His win or very strong showing could help encourage a housecleaning in that corrupt organization, as well.
The special election in Massachusetts is January 19.
A Modest, But Effective Idea--Move Your Money To Your Community Bank
This movement seems to be gaining legs, as one way families and small businesses can push back against the banksters.
More on this later, but here's the video promoting the idea.
Tuesday, January 5, 2010
If Ten Percent is Good Enough For Jesus...
An inspired 2:50 from Ray Stevens, comic poet laureate of country music.
The scary bit is--he first released this song in the early 1990's!
Enjoy.
Splurge. Borrow. Repeat. And Consider The Source
This editorial from the January 3 Chicago Tribune is especially sobering.
It addresses the Illinois voter bluntly:
You're a deadbeat, an astonishing $4.9 billion overdue in paying your bills. You owe much of that for services that were provided many months ago by people who, day in and day out, care for your ailing, handicapped and often helpless fellow citizens.
You're also -- sorry to be blunt -- inept. You repeatedly spend more than you earn and borrow to fill the gap. This year you'll outspend your income by some $12 billion.
In the process you've embraced debts that could plague your descendants after you're dead and gone. Examples: You've bizarrely promised your workers some $80 billion more in pension payouts than you can afford. What's more, you've promised them additional billions that you don't have for their health care after they retire.
And that's just the opening bits!
But, as we watch this drama unfold in Illinois, once the envy of the world, as it experiences the slow-motion car wreck of a state headed toward bankruptcy, it is a moment to reflect:
Where do The People In Charge hail from?
Who sat in the Illinois Senate a few years ago and helped hasten the day the state now faces?
Why did we turn governance of this country over to the people who created this disaster in Illinois?
What were we, collectively, thinking?
What should we, collectively, do next?