Only one problem with this plan: The unemployment rate is now higher than when Himself took office.
So says the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Hmmm.....
Got Vote?
Showing posts with label Unemployment. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Unemployment. Show all posts
Saturday, November 3, 2012
Thursday, October 11, 2012
'Never Mind...': This Week's Jobless Claims Report Was An Inaccurate Anomaly After All, Because...
California failed to report several trainloads of jobless claims in time to be included in the report.
If something appears too good to be true, it is because it is...too good to be true.
If something looks, walks and quacks like a duck...it's a duck!
If a BLS report smells like last week's Limburger cheese left in a hot car....
To quote the late great Gilda Radner: 'Never mind...'
BTW, OS managed to watch the House hearings yesterday on the Bengahzi debacle, and actually heard the PersonInCharge of embassy security worldwide (a dumpy-looking lady of not-sparkling intellect) claim that they had sufficient resources in place to defend the ambassador and the compound, to which an incredulous panel of Reps kept asking, 'So, tell me--why did our people get killed?'
The dumpy-looking lady had actually watched the attack real-time on State Department screens, which must have been agonizing. She was asked if she had any opinion at the time, or even later, whether this event was an organized assault or just a demonstration of angry Muslims pissed about some obscure YouTube video. She stated she had none then, or now. It was an amazing performance, to say the least.
The two people who had been pleading with the dumpy-looking lady for months to beef up security lest a tragedy occur detailed how they had been repeatedly ignored and denied the resources needed.
They were sitting beside the the dumpy-looking lady. She kept telling the Reps that she had done her job, that she and her superiors (whose names she reluctantly gave up) hadn't been given notice that a potential problem was brewing. When asked if she had ever been to Libya, the answer was 'No'.
It was dark, dark theatre.
Only it wasn't theatre, it was reality. Our reality.
If something appears too good to be true, it is because it is...too good to be true.
If something looks, walks and quacks like a duck...it's a duck!
If a BLS report smells like last week's Limburger cheese left in a hot car....
To quote the late great Gilda Radner: 'Never mind...'
BTW, OS managed to watch the House hearings yesterday on the Bengahzi debacle, and actually heard the PersonInCharge of embassy security worldwide (a dumpy-looking lady of not-sparkling intellect) claim that they had sufficient resources in place to defend the ambassador and the compound, to which an incredulous panel of Reps kept asking, 'So, tell me--why did our people get killed?'
The dumpy-looking lady had actually watched the attack real-time on State Department screens, which must have been agonizing. She was asked if she had any opinion at the time, or even later, whether this event was an organized assault or just a demonstration of angry Muslims pissed about some obscure YouTube video. She stated she had none then, or now. It was an amazing performance, to say the least.
The two people who had been pleading with the dumpy-looking lady for months to beef up security lest a tragedy occur detailed how they had been repeatedly ignored and denied the resources needed.
They were sitting beside the the dumpy-looking lady. She kept telling the Reps that she had done her job, that she and her superiors (whose names she reluctantly gave up) hadn't been given notice that a potential problem was brewing. When asked if she had ever been to Libya, the answer was 'No'.
It was dark, dark theatre.
Only it wasn't theatre, it was reality. Our reality.
Thursday, August 9, 2012
Calculated Risk: Note: 7.58% (SA) and 4.27% equals 11.85%
Bill McBride, the brilliant blogger at Calculated Risk, is one of OS's heroes. He is so dispassionate, so laconic, and he knows how to do simple math so as to (as Ricky Ricardo would say..) 'splain things to us Looocey.
Today, Bill 'splains a small bit of the reality of the real economy. The economy we, who do not work on The Street or in D.C. or have Ivy League MBA's or permanent sinecures at universities or state gubbermint bureaucracies, live in. The real economy.
The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties increased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 7.58 percent of all loans outstanding as of the end of the second quarter of 2012, an increase of 18 basis points from the first quarter, but a decrease of 86 basis points from one year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey.
The delinquency rate includes loans that are at least one payment past due but does not include loans in the process of foreclosure. The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started during the second quarter was 0.96 percent, unchanged from last quarter and from one year ago. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the second quarter was 4.27 percent, down 12 basis points from the first quarter and 16 basis points lower than one year ago. The serious delinquency rate, the percentage of loans that are 90 days or more past due or in the process of foreclosure, was 7.31 percent, a decrease of 13 basis points from last quarter and a decrease of 54 basis points from one year ago.
OK, fair enough, makes the eyes glaze over a bit. Then McBride does his simple math:
Today, Bill 'splains a small bit of the reality of the real economy. The economy we, who do not work on The Street or in D.C. or have Ivy League MBA's or permanent sinecures at universities or state gubbermint bureaucracies, live in. The real economy.
The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties increased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 7.58 percent of all loans outstanding as of the end of the second quarter of 2012, an increase of 18 basis points from the first quarter, but a decrease of 86 basis points from one year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey.
The delinquency rate includes loans that are at least one payment past due but does not include loans in the process of foreclosure. The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started during the second quarter was 0.96 percent, unchanged from last quarter and from one year ago. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the second quarter was 4.27 percent, down 12 basis points from the first quarter and 16 basis points lower than one year ago. The serious delinquency rate, the percentage of loans that are 90 days or more past due or in the process of foreclosure, was 7.31 percent, a decrease of 13 basis points from last quarter and a decrease of 54 basis points from one year ago.
OK, fair enough, makes the eyes glaze over a bit. Then McBride does his simple math:
7.58% (SA) and 4.27% equals 11.85%
Friday, May 4, 2012
Today's Math Lesson For The One, LittleTimmy, And Helicopter Ben
What's 522, 000 minus 115,000?
That would be 407,000, the net loss of individuals from the US workforce in April 2012.
In April, about 522,000 Americans left the labor force, making the addition of 115,000 jobs look all the more alarming. In 2011, about 2.7 million Americans left the work force while only 945,000 came in.
OS knows that Himself never did like math, cuz he was too busy thinking of ways to take over and then wreck the United States. But someone might wish to risk whispering in His ear that, with each day that passes, the November election gets one day closer.
That math he understands, cause it's all about Him.
Full article here.
That would be 407,000, the net loss of individuals from the US workforce in April 2012.
In April, about 522,000 Americans left the labor force, making the addition of 115,000 jobs look all the more alarming. In 2011, about 2.7 million Americans left the work force while only 945,000 came in.
OS knows that Himself never did like math, cuz he was too busy thinking of ways to take over and then wreck the United States. But someone might wish to risk whispering in His ear that, with each day that passes, the November election gets one day closer.
That math he understands, cause it's all about Him.
Full article here.
Thursday, September 22, 2011
Harvard Business Review Survey: Only 31% Of Execs In The US And Europe Plan New Hires Next Year
Hope 'n Change, ya'll, Hope 'n Change...
To get a better glimpse into where these decision makers stand at this perilous moment in history, we launched the Harvard Business Review Economic Survey earlier this month and contacted 1389 executives — the majority director level and above — from the U.S., UK/Europe, and Asia. We focused on three areas of questioning: Their confidence in the global economy this year and in the next decade, whether or not they were confident their companies would hit their revenue targets this year and next, and whether they anticipated increasing their hiring in the next fiscal year.
The news — particularly around hiring — is not good: Only 31% of respondents in the US and UK/Europe said they planned to increase their hiring efforts next fiscal year. The news out of Asia was slightly better, with 41% planning to increase hiring. This general trepidation most likely can be explained by respondents' fears of an impending second global economic recession: 70% believe another global economic recession is either somewhat or very likely in the coming months. Also telling is the respondents' estimates of their own companies' performance, with only mixed confidence in their near-term organizational performance.
It's not just folks like OS on small-town main street that says we're headed in the wrong direction at about 100 mph. The GreatAndGood at places like NBC, NYT, CNN, and the White House call us ig'nrant rednecks when we suggest things aren't going well and a change is needed. What names to they plan to call these 1389 respondents?
Actually, they won't call them any names at all. They'll simply ignore the fact that the survey was taken or published, even by HBR.
That'll make everything ok. No worries. Just keep on watching 'Dancing With The Stars'...we've got this all under control.
To get a better glimpse into where these decision makers stand at this perilous moment in history, we launched the Harvard Business Review Economic Survey earlier this month and contacted 1389 executives — the majority director level and above — from the U.S., UK/Europe, and Asia. We focused on three areas of questioning: Their confidence in the global economy this year and in the next decade, whether or not they were confident their companies would hit their revenue targets this year and next, and whether they anticipated increasing their hiring in the next fiscal year.
The news — particularly around hiring — is not good: Only 31% of respondents in the US and UK/Europe said they planned to increase their hiring efforts next fiscal year. The news out of Asia was slightly better, with 41% planning to increase hiring. This general trepidation most likely can be explained by respondents' fears of an impending second global economic recession: 70% believe another global economic recession is either somewhat or very likely in the coming months. Also telling is the respondents' estimates of their own companies' performance, with only mixed confidence in their near-term organizational performance.
It's not just folks like OS on small-town main street that says we're headed in the wrong direction at about 100 mph. The GreatAndGood at places like NBC, NYT, CNN, and the White House call us ig'nrant rednecks when we suggest things aren't going well and a change is needed. What names to they plan to call these 1389 respondents?
Actually, they won't call them any names at all. They'll simply ignore the fact that the survey was taken or published, even by HBR.
That'll make everything ok. No worries. Just keep on watching 'Dancing With The Stars'...we've got this all under control.
Friday, September 2, 2011
Zero, Zilch, Nada, Jobs Created In August--Likely Jobs Lost--Please, No More Blather About 'Jobs Saved Or Gained'
It's September 1, 2011. Obama took office two years eight months ago, plus a few days.
It's his economy, not Bush's.
From the Bureau of Labor Statistics, today:
Nonfarm payroll employment was unchanged (0) in August, and the unemployment
rate held at 9.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
Employment in most major industries changed little over the month. Health
care continued to add jobs, and a decline in information employment reflected
a strike. Government employment continued to trend down, despite the return
of workers from a partial government shutdown in Minnesota.
Household Survey Data
The number of unemployed persons, at 14.0 million, was essentially unchanged
in August, and the unemployment rate held at 9.1 percent. The rate has shown
little change since April. (See table A-1.)
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (8.9
percent), adult women (8.0 percent), teenagers (25.4 percent), whites
(8.0 percent), blacks (16.7 percent), and Hispanics (11.3 percent) showed
little or no change in August. The jobless rate for Asians was 7.1 percent,
not seasonally adjusted. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)
The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) was
about unchanged at 6.0 million in August and accounted for 42.9 percent of the
unemployed. (See table A-12.)
The labor force rose to 153.6 million in August. Both the civilian labor force
participation rate, at 64.0 percent, and the employment-population ratio, at
58.2 percent, were little changed. (See table A-1.)
Oh, by the way, the final paragraph of the report shares this gem with us:
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June was revised from
+46,000 to +20,000, and the change for July was revised from +117,000 to
+85,000.
20/46 is....43%. Thus that was a 57% miss on the estimate.
85/117 is...72%. Thus that was a 38% miss on the estimate.
There are people who went out and bought stocks based on those 'estimates'-- damn ya'll, there was euphoria in July!
November 2012 cannot arrive too quickly.
It's his economy, not Bush's.
From the Bureau of Labor Statistics, today:
Nonfarm payroll employment was unchanged (0) in August, and the unemployment
rate held at 9.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
Employment in most major industries changed little over the month. Health
care continued to add jobs, and a decline in information employment reflected
a strike. Government employment continued to trend down, despite the return
of workers from a partial government shutdown in Minnesota.
Household Survey Data
The number of unemployed persons, at 14.0 million, was essentially unchanged
in August, and the unemployment rate held at 9.1 percent. The rate has shown
little change since April. (See table A-1.)
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (8.9
percent), adult women (8.0 percent), teenagers (25.4 percent), whites
(8.0 percent), blacks (16.7 percent), and Hispanics (11.3 percent) showed
little or no change in August. The jobless rate for Asians was 7.1 percent,
not seasonally adjusted. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)
The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) was
about unchanged at 6.0 million in August and accounted for 42.9 percent of the
unemployed. (See table A-12.)
The labor force rose to 153.6 million in August. Both the civilian labor force
participation rate, at 64.0 percent, and the employment-population ratio, at
58.2 percent, were little changed. (See table A-1.)
Oh, by the way, the final paragraph of the report shares this gem with us:
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June was revised from
+46,000 to +20,000, and the change for July was revised from +117,000 to
+85,000.
20/46 is....43%. Thus that was a 57% miss on the estimate.
85/117 is...72%. Thus that was a 38% miss on the estimate.
There are people who went out and bought stocks based on those 'estimates'-- damn ya'll, there was euphoria in July!
November 2012 cannot arrive too quickly.
Monday, July 11, 2011
Greg Mankiw Calls It a 'Disappointing Recovery'
Really, that's what he said. He has the economics degrees and teaches at Harvard, so he knows some things, and this is not an effort to ridicule the gentleman.
But, then again, OS looks at the chart Dr. Mankiw published, shared below, and asks:
What recovery? What would a non-recovery look like on the chart? This looks like the behavior of a semi-deflated basketball, dropped on the gym floor from the balcony.
At what point do even the folks who live in the Harvard bubble look at reality and decide they've had enough of Obama, Pelosi and Reid? What level of suffering, in what proximity to Cambridge, Massachusetts will be required? What will the tipping point be?
(And, for all you tin-foil-hat types out there, just to be certain, this is not OS's oblique call for some nutter to do violent things to Harvard. No, no, no, no, no.)
But, then again, OS looks at the chart Dr. Mankiw published, shared below, and asks:
What recovery? What would a non-recovery look like on the chart? This looks like the behavior of a semi-deflated basketball, dropped on the gym floor from the balcony.
At what point do even the folks who live in the Harvard bubble look at reality and decide they've had enough of Obama, Pelosi and Reid? What level of suffering, in what proximity to Cambridge, Massachusetts will be required? What will the tipping point be?
(And, for all you tin-foil-hat types out there, just to be certain, this is not OS's oblique call for some nutter to do violent things to Harvard. No, no, no, no, no.)
Sunday, July 10, 2011
Quote Of The Day: Thousands Line Up For A Shot A Job With Ford In Louisville
They line up in the rain, to fill out an application, which might be chosen in a lottery, which will lead to an initial screening for one of 1800 jobs Ford will add in Louisville, that is, 1800 less the ones they fill with UAW members already waiting in the wings.
And that quote:
“How can the wealthiest country in the world have people that are so desperate?” said Gary Wise, the employment office’s operations administrator, as he watched people fill out paperwork in the rain.
Thank you Mr. Obama, for the Hope 'n Change.
This is your economy, not George Bush's.
And that quote:
“How can the wealthiest country in the world have people that are so desperate?” said Gary Wise, the employment office’s operations administrator, as he watched people fill out paperwork in the rain.
Thank you Mr. Obama, for the Hope 'n Change.
This is your economy, not George Bush's.
Saturday, July 9, 2011
Yes, My Beloved Mrs. OS, The Man On The Radio Said 'Eighteen Thousand'
Yesterday was one of those wonderful 'day-trips' OS gets to embark upon with his beloved Mrs. OS. We're both soooooo grateful to be happily involved in work and lives that sometimes get too busy, thus it is lovely to have a day together, with a relatively light schedule.
Off we go, driving into the early morning mist with NPR news on, half-listening, when the unemployment figures for June are announced. OS sez with a start, 'Did he just say eighteen-thousand? That can't possibly be right! Gotta be a typo on his script!
Mrs. OS sez 'I heard one-hundred-eighteen-thousand.'
'OK, that's better...man, if it were only eighteen-thousand, that would be awful! The country has to generate at least 150k a month just to keep up with demographics...'
Of course, as the day wore on, the news played again, several times. And the ugly, ugly news sank in. Along with the 'revisions' that halved the numbers of jobs gained in April and May. Remember when the White House staff was crowing about the good news in April? Yep, those numbers...
Of course, we also heard from President Teleprompter, as he attempted to spin the numbers. He attributed the bad news to the fact that the House Republicans won't roll over, play dead, and raise the debt ceiling so he can spend moh munney-hunney.
(And raise taxes on employers while he's at it...)
Ahh, leadership!
Calculated Risk has the news in all its gory detail.
Off we go, driving into the early morning mist with NPR news on, half-listening, when the unemployment figures for June are announced. OS sez with a start, 'Did he just say eighteen-thousand? That can't possibly be right! Gotta be a typo on his script!
Mrs. OS sez 'I heard one-hundred-eighteen-thousand.'
'OK, that's better...man, if it were only eighteen-thousand, that would be awful! The country has to generate at least 150k a month just to keep up with demographics...'
Of course, as the day wore on, the news played again, several times. And the ugly, ugly news sank in. Along with the 'revisions' that halved the numbers of jobs gained in April and May. Remember when the White House staff was crowing about the good news in April? Yep, those numbers...
Of course, we also heard from President Teleprompter, as he attempted to spin the numbers. He attributed the bad news to the fact that the House Republicans won't roll over, play dead, and raise the debt ceiling so he can spend moh munney-hunney.
(And raise taxes on employers while he's at it...)
Ahh, leadership!
Calculated Risk has the news in all its gory detail.
Thursday, June 9, 2011
Weiner's Gonna Extend His Tenure In Congress: After All, The Median Length Of Unemployment In The US Is Now Forty Weeks
I mean, a boy's gotta eat, and what with a rumored Baby Weiner on the way, and that new car for TheMissusWeiner(an Audi A-8 is a good round number), house-complete-with-decorator-spending-money-by-the-wheelbarrow-hunney, the lawyer's fees, the potential alimony and child support....well, it adds up. 'Specially when noooooobuddy's gunna wanna pony up $2500 for the privilege of buying a seat at his dinner, and nooooobuddy's gunna wanna get within camera range of the poh' boy.
Good thing the DemSpinMachine is in high gear to save his ass. Even ABC is no longer impressed.
And, yep, that lil' ole' headwind that Austan Goolsbee assured us about is actually a gale, and a chill one at that. Austan decided to beat it back to academia while he could. Ain't nobuddy gunna wanna be around The One come late November 2012, know-whud-I-mean?
We’ve seen the headline numbers from the monthly jobs report; losing a job means a long stint without employment these days. The median period of unemployment is now at a historic high; 39.7 weeks according to the May Report. That’s the highest it has ever been in the history of the survey.
A new research report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics dug into this trend to offer new details on how long it takes to make the transition from unemployed to employed and found that 11 percent of job seekers took a year or longer to land a new job. Another off-the-chart reading.
Data included in the report shows that between 2000 – 2008 about half of all unemployed people found a job within five weeks. Last year, a little more than a third of jobseekers were able to land a new position in that amount of time.
Hope-'n-Change, ya'll!
Good thing the DemSpinMachine is in high gear to save his ass. Even ABC is no longer impressed.
And, yep, that lil' ole' headwind that Austan Goolsbee assured us about is actually a gale, and a chill one at that. Austan decided to beat it back to academia while he could. Ain't nobuddy gunna wanna be around The One come late November 2012, know-whud-I-mean?
We’ve seen the headline numbers from the monthly jobs report; losing a job means a long stint without employment these days. The median period of unemployment is now at a historic high; 39.7 weeks according to the May Report. That’s the highest it has ever been in the history of the survey.
A new research report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics dug into this trend to offer new details on how long it takes to make the transition from unemployed to employed and found that 11 percent of job seekers took a year or longer to land a new job. Another off-the-chart reading.
Data included in the report shows that between 2000 – 2008 about half of all unemployed people found a job within five weeks. Last year, a little more than a third of jobseekers were able to land a new position in that amount of time.
Hope-'n-Change, ya'll!
Saturday, February 5, 2011
The US Unemployment Rate, Sans The Spin
From Gallup Research:
Lots of chatter yesterday about how an economy the size of ours only created 36,000 jobs last month, and yet the unemployment rate dropped from 9.4% to 9%. 150,000 people enter the work force every month, net--new entries minus deaths and retirements. 36k is less than 150k, even in ObamaMath.
The short answer is, Someone may be trying to blow smoke up our skirts. Or, things are so hinky that normal means of measurement are breaking down.
If you'll hit that link above, you'll see the reality. Flat-line, 19.9% underemployment, 9.9 unemployment. Gallup isn't running for office, he's in the accuracy bidness.
Back in 1992, Bill Clinton beat George Bush Sr about the ears over a mild recession we were in, declaring it 'The Worst Recession Since World War II', and 'I Feel Your Pain'.
Bill? Why so silent? You're an elder statesman now, you can say whatever you want.
Bill?
OS used to shop regularly at WalMart, and now tends to avoid it. He shopped there this week, as a reality check of sorts. It's disturbing to walk the isles and see so many shabby people who look completely beaten down by life. So many seem to have given up, looking to survive this month, this week, today. Homeless people are showing up in new places in Nashville, and local churches are feeding more people every month in OS's county. These are the folks responsible for the drop in the unemployment rate...they've done the Department of Labor the favor of simply dropping off the radar.
For a more dispassionate view of reality, visit Calculated Risk.
Lots of chatter yesterday about how an economy the size of ours only created 36,000 jobs last month, and yet the unemployment rate dropped from 9.4% to 9%. 150,000 people enter the work force every month, net--new entries minus deaths and retirements. 36k is less than 150k, even in ObamaMath.
The short answer is, Someone may be trying to blow smoke up our skirts. Or, things are so hinky that normal means of measurement are breaking down.
If you'll hit that link above, you'll see the reality. Flat-line, 19.9% underemployment, 9.9 unemployment. Gallup isn't running for office, he's in the accuracy bidness.
Back in 1992, Bill Clinton beat George Bush Sr about the ears over a mild recession we were in, declaring it 'The Worst Recession Since World War II', and 'I Feel Your Pain'.
Bill? Why so silent? You're an elder statesman now, you can say whatever you want.
Bill?
OS used to shop regularly at WalMart, and now tends to avoid it. He shopped there this week, as a reality check of sorts. It's disturbing to walk the isles and see so many shabby people who look completely beaten down by life. So many seem to have given up, looking to survive this month, this week, today. Homeless people are showing up in new places in Nashville, and local churches are feeding more people every month in OS's county. These are the folks responsible for the drop in the unemployment rate...they've done the Department of Labor the favor of simply dropping off the radar.
For a more dispassionate view of reality, visit Calculated Risk.
Monday, December 13, 2010
Culture/Economy, Economy/Culture: NYT Comments On Unemployment Rate For NYC's Young Black Male Population
It's all so politely phrased, but it sets OS's hair on fire to read it.
The report, written by Michelle Holder, a labor market analyst with the Community Service Society, noted that during the recession that began in December 2007, working-age black men suffered an especially large increase of unemployment. The jobless rate for that group jumped to 17.9 percent in 2009 from 9 percent in 2006. Among young men of all races, age 16 to 24, the overall jobless rate rose to 24.6 percent during the recession.
The report, entitled “Unemployment in New York City During the Recession and Early Recovery,” noted that the jobless rate for Hispanic men, age 16 to 24, rose to 24.7 percent during the recession, while their labor force participation rate was 42 percent. For all men age 16 to 24 in New York City, the jobless rate was 22.4 percent during the period studied, while the labor force participation rate was 42 percent. According to the report, women with less than a high school diploma had the lowest labor force participation rate of any group: 28 percent.
The group with the lowest jobless rate during the recession and the early part of the recovery — the recession ended in June 2009 — was Asian women, age 55 to 64. Their unemployment rate in 2009 was 4.5 percent, the report found.
The crucial bit for OS is that 'participation rate'. If 42 percent are 'participating', i.e. employed or actively in the system seeking employment, then 58 percent are off the radar. They don't have enough hope or belief in the future to participate in the above-ground economy or culture.
Contrast with the Asian women 55-64 stat.
This is not a racist rant, not at all. The difference in culture, expectations, family dynamics, etc. impact these numbers so strongly. It isn't that people with black skin or hispanic heritage are inherently incapable--but something happened along the way, and amongst their young men, the level of belief in the future has faded away.
So, where are they? Where do they go? What do they do? What does the future look like for them?
What should we be doing about this? Whatever we've done to date hasn't worked, so please--no more rants from the Left about how we should just throw more money in the direction of the NEA and Urban League.
The report, written by Michelle Holder, a labor market analyst with the Community Service Society, noted that during the recession that began in December 2007, working-age black men suffered an especially large increase of unemployment. The jobless rate for that group jumped to 17.9 percent in 2009 from 9 percent in 2006. Among young men of all races, age 16 to 24, the overall jobless rate rose to 24.6 percent during the recession.
The report, entitled “Unemployment in New York City During the Recession and Early Recovery,” noted that the jobless rate for Hispanic men, age 16 to 24, rose to 24.7 percent during the recession, while their labor force participation rate was 42 percent. For all men age 16 to 24 in New York City, the jobless rate was 22.4 percent during the period studied, while the labor force participation rate was 42 percent. According to the report, women with less than a high school diploma had the lowest labor force participation rate of any group: 28 percent.
The group with the lowest jobless rate during the recession and the early part of the recovery — the recession ended in June 2009 — was Asian women, age 55 to 64. Their unemployment rate in 2009 was 4.5 percent, the report found.
The crucial bit for OS is that 'participation rate'. If 42 percent are 'participating', i.e. employed or actively in the system seeking employment, then 58 percent are off the radar. They don't have enough hope or belief in the future to participate in the above-ground economy or culture.
Contrast with the Asian women 55-64 stat.
This is not a racist rant, not at all. The difference in culture, expectations, family dynamics, etc. impact these numbers so strongly. It isn't that people with black skin or hispanic heritage are inherently incapable--but something happened along the way, and amongst their young men, the level of belief in the future has faded away.
So, where are they? Where do they go? What do they do? What does the future look like for them?
What should we be doing about this? Whatever we've done to date hasn't worked, so please--no more rants from the Left about how we should just throw more money in the direction of the NEA and Urban League.
Saturday, December 4, 2010
Deja Vu All Over Again: Jimmy Carter Redux
Calculated Risk's chart gallery is a great resource for those who wish to cut through the verbiage and understand the challenges we face.
This recent chart is chilling: It is a chronological boom-and-bust display since 1960. (Click on the graph for a better view.)
The really bad stuff began about 1969, when Nixon abandoned reason and hard money at the same time. However, Jimmy Carter, who blessedly served only one term, left us in near-shambles, due to his ineptitude. His departure in 1981 is simultaneous to a deep recession and spike in unemployment. OS remembers those dark days much too well.
The red line is the unemployment rate. The blue is the 'participation rate', e.g. those still active in the workforce, either working or seeking employment. The black line is the percentage of total population in the active workforce.
Compare now to 1981/1982. Pretty ugly, is it not? Those who predicted Obama Term 1 would equal Carter Term 2 were actually pretty cogent.
The official unemployment rate is now 9.8%. The true rate is about double that.
Obama and the Democrat leadership remain unrepentant. Not surprising: So is Jimmy Carter.
Friday, December 3, 2010
Home Again, Thursday Evening Return From Louisville
Several happy days spent in Louisville, still a favorite town in OS's travels. He met up with friends from around the Midwest, each with a tale to tell, but the specifics will be scrubbed here sufficiently to grant them their deserved privacy.
Things in general don't seem as depressed there as on previous visits, which is welcome news. OS is not one of these guys who wishes to emulate Jonah, who preached
'The End Is Near', was heeded, and his listeners were spared. He then was cheesed off at the Almighty for not raining fire down upon the former infidels anyway, and ended up with some 'Splainin-To-Do-Lucy to his Maker.
When things improve, OS is genuinely happy. Restaurants had diners, even if they weren't jammed. Stores had shoppers, even if the parking lots weren't filled. The airport parking lot was well-filled. And the mood in general seemed more upbeat.
Ford Motor's survival and re-emergence will result in retooling of one of its manufacturing facilities in Louisville early next year, which is most welcome news to a city that lives off its factories.
A much-needed bridge just upriver from Louisville may well be built, funded by tolls imposed on commuter traffic across the other bridges. So, some good things appear to be in the offing.
The friends had interesting tales to share. One lives in a small Midwestern town that is working heroically to maintain good schools, churches, and civic life. He runs a still-surviving small business, but his has always been a two-income household by necessity, with kids to raise and educate. His wife is very qualified in her industry's fields of expertise, but the jobs (or rather the firms that could make use of her gifts) have just simply vanished or operate as shells of their former selves. She is one of the 99-ers, the final unemployment check came this week, and as he talked, I saw some real fear in his eyes. Never had seen that in him in all these years. Certainly not despairing, but fear has crept in, a new experience in his life. OS passed on a second-hand job lead, but it would put the spouse in another city, six hours away from the family. She's willing to do that, if that is what is required. No whining, mind you.
Another friend works with an endowment fund that does significantly good things. She reports that the fund principal was really hammered; and with the subsequent crushing of interest rates by Zimbabwe Ben, there is only half the previous income to work with, and it's becoming tough to do some of the things for which the endowment was established. The New Normal. No despair, but a grim sense of 'We're just going to have to get through this, and keep our chins up.'
OS is helping revise a vita for another friend who got caught in the political undertow at his downsizing firm. A brilliant gent who never expected to have to do this at this point of his career. The New Normal. Again, no despair, but a real sense of loss to contend with as he forges on to his new and unexpected life.
The trip out of town took a while to complete, working around the traffic. OS decided to escape southward on the Preston Highway, through the outer southern 'burbs. It was sobering to drive by the large trailer parks. Things have not been going well, and the folks there, by definition, live on the edge of the economy and culture. What happens if, Heaven forbid, things take another serious downturn? What will The New Normal look like for them? Same experience driving much of the trip home on the old 31-W. The little towns are looking even shabbier than this time last year, and they weren't doing well then.
Not despairing, not fearing, but a bit worried. What are we prepared to do to aid people so much less fortunate if the ReallyBadStuff some predict begins to happen?
The folks in the trailer parks are not a rabble. They are people, with bodies and souls.
Things in general don't seem as depressed there as on previous visits, which is welcome news. OS is not one of these guys who wishes to emulate Jonah, who preached
'The End Is Near', was heeded, and his listeners were spared. He then was cheesed off at the Almighty for not raining fire down upon the former infidels anyway, and ended up with some 'Splainin-To-Do-Lucy to his Maker.
When things improve, OS is genuinely happy. Restaurants had diners, even if they weren't jammed. Stores had shoppers, even if the parking lots weren't filled. The airport parking lot was well-filled. And the mood in general seemed more upbeat.
Ford Motor's survival and re-emergence will result in retooling of one of its manufacturing facilities in Louisville early next year, which is most welcome news to a city that lives off its factories.
A much-needed bridge just upriver from Louisville may well be built, funded by tolls imposed on commuter traffic across the other bridges. So, some good things appear to be in the offing.
The friends had interesting tales to share. One lives in a small Midwestern town that is working heroically to maintain good schools, churches, and civic life. He runs a still-surviving small business, but his has always been a two-income household by necessity, with kids to raise and educate. His wife is very qualified in her industry's fields of expertise, but the jobs (or rather the firms that could make use of her gifts) have just simply vanished or operate as shells of their former selves. She is one of the 99-ers, the final unemployment check came this week, and as he talked, I saw some real fear in his eyes. Never had seen that in him in all these years. Certainly not despairing, but fear has crept in, a new experience in his life. OS passed on a second-hand job lead, but it would put the spouse in another city, six hours away from the family. She's willing to do that, if that is what is required. No whining, mind you.
Another friend works with an endowment fund that does significantly good things. She reports that the fund principal was really hammered; and with the subsequent crushing of interest rates by Zimbabwe Ben, there is only half the previous income to work with, and it's becoming tough to do some of the things for which the endowment was established. The New Normal. No despair, but a grim sense of 'We're just going to have to get through this, and keep our chins up.'
OS is helping revise a vita for another friend who got caught in the political undertow at his downsizing firm. A brilliant gent who never expected to have to do this at this point of his career. The New Normal. Again, no despair, but a real sense of loss to contend with as he forges on to his new and unexpected life.
The trip out of town took a while to complete, working around the traffic. OS decided to escape southward on the Preston Highway, through the outer southern 'burbs. It was sobering to drive by the large trailer parks. Things have not been going well, and the folks there, by definition, live on the edge of the economy and culture. What happens if, Heaven forbid, things take another serious downturn? What will The New Normal look like for them? Same experience driving much of the trip home on the old 31-W. The little towns are looking even shabbier than this time last year, and they weren't doing well then.
Not despairing, not fearing, but a bit worried. What are we prepared to do to aid people so much less fortunate if the ReallyBadStuff some predict begins to happen?
The folks in the trailer parks are not a rabble. They are people, with bodies and souls.
Saturday, August 7, 2010
Saturday Morning, Small-Town South, August 7 2010
OS is weary, and so happy to be looking across his coffee cup at the sainted Mrs. OS, who has decided to tolerate him one more day, bless her.
OS knows a local newspaper writer, working for one of the county-seat papers. His county's experience paralleled ours. He reports that people are disgusted, and that they aimed their displeasure at the incumbents, many of whom have sat on their collective tooshies while their counties unwound around them. It may be a harbinger for November. In any case, OS breathes a bit easier in his county, with a new sheriff elected, replacing the one who more resembled the old Dixie model of a criminal with his own badge and police cruiser.
Over coffee, OS ran across this.
It's a thoughtful discussion of why the true unemployment rate may well be north of 20%, instead of south of 10%. Those figures actually correspond with OS's instincts and daily experience. The problem of the 'uncounted unemployed' has been with us a long-long time, and we may have reached an inflection point, where it is impossible to ignore.
OS, for his part, although far from rich, is so very grateful for the life he has been given. His spending habits, due to repair of flood damage from May, and necessary house and car repairs, have amounted to a one-man stimulus package for the local economy...
OS knows a local newspaper writer, working for one of the county-seat papers. His county's experience paralleled ours. He reports that people are disgusted, and that they aimed their displeasure at the incumbents, many of whom have sat on their collective tooshies while their counties unwound around them. It may be a harbinger for November. In any case, OS breathes a bit easier in his county, with a new sheriff elected, replacing the one who more resembled the old Dixie model of a criminal with his own badge and police cruiser.
Over coffee, OS ran across this.
It's a thoughtful discussion of why the true unemployment rate may well be north of 20%, instead of south of 10%. Those figures actually correspond with OS's instincts and daily experience. The problem of the 'uncounted unemployed' has been with us a long-long time, and we may have reached an inflection point, where it is impossible to ignore.
OS, for his part, although far from rich, is so very grateful for the life he has been given. His spending habits, due to repair of flood damage from May, and necessary house and car repairs, have amounted to a one-man stimulus package for the local economy...
Tuesday, August 3, 2010
Right On Target, And Missing The Point: Krugman's 'Defining Prosperity Down'
Paul Krugman, that Lion of The Left, The One's Personal Homeboy, Never Saw A Gubbermint Spending Program Too Lavish--that guy--has contributed a well-written essay to the current debate on OS's favorite subject--the culture that shapes the economy.
And, to lead off, he is exactly on point:
I’m starting to have a sick feeling about prospects for American workers — but not, or not entirely, for the reasons you might think.
Yes, growth is slowing, and the odds are that unemployment will rise, not fall, in the months ahead. That’s bad. But what’s worse is the growing evidence that our governing elite just doesn’t care — that a once-unthinkable level of economic distress is in the process of becoming the new normal.
And I worry that those in power, rather than taking responsibility for job creation, will soon declare that high unemployment is “structural,” a permanent part of the economic landscape — and that by condemning large numbers of Americans to long-term joblessness, they’ll turn that excuse into dismal reality.
He is dead-on, and expresses so well OS has been attempting to verbalize in his halting fashion. (That's why Krugman gets paid well for his words, and OS still writes as a hobby...craft matters.)
OS spent a week on business in Northern Kentucky and Louisville, which are favored places in his world. Heartbreakingly beautiful is the description that comes to mind about the scenery and small towns on the south side of the Ohio River. And yet, there is another sort of hearbreak that overtakes him as he visits: It is evident that these towns were once profoundly prosperous, and have been gutted over time, by one recession after the other, each one playing a cruel game of musical chairs with the souls that inhabit them. The music stops, and another slice of people become the 'structurally unemployed', living in subsidized housing or trailers, shopping at the Walmart and Dollar Tree-type stores with their SNAP cards, because no new businesses arose from the ashes of the ones that died. They raise children who eke by in the public school, and seem adrift. OS had to make a late-night trip to Walmart, and was struck by the number of kids just 'hanging out', at their poor physical and mental condition. Depressing. One town on the route in particular, Carrollton, featured lovely Victorian homes with dismal trailers next door, empty storefronts in a downtown that had once obviously thrived. The connector road to the interstate completed the scene with trailer parks, a closed car dealership, weedy lots, etc. It's like the wind just died in the sails.
Krugman is right. The powers-that-be may have decided this is just the way things will be, with a very prosperous layer shopping-til-they-drop at St. Matthews Mall on Louisville's east end, and a vast semi-underclass huddled together in neighborhoods not too far removed, hanging on for dear life, hoping the music doesn't stop for them as well.
But then, bless him, he proposes that the solution is to have the gubbermint increase the pace of its borrowing and spending, as if much more of the same policy since January '09 will put the economy back up on its feet.
What's needed are businesses. In order to have businesses, entreprenuers are required, willing to risk. If they turn profits by meeting needs, they create wealth, which is distributed to the owners.
Gubbermint can't do that. It's not set up to do that. It can't be in the wealth-creation business. It's in the taxing and making rules business. That doesn't create wealth, and tends to destroy it over the long haul.
Still, Mr. Krugman is well worth the time invested, if for no other reason than to see how the liberal mind functions.
And, to lead off, he is exactly on point:
I’m starting to have a sick feeling about prospects for American workers — but not, or not entirely, for the reasons you might think.
Yes, growth is slowing, and the odds are that unemployment will rise, not fall, in the months ahead. That’s bad. But what’s worse is the growing evidence that our governing elite just doesn’t care — that a once-unthinkable level of economic distress is in the process of becoming the new normal.
And I worry that those in power, rather than taking responsibility for job creation, will soon declare that high unemployment is “structural,” a permanent part of the economic landscape — and that by condemning large numbers of Americans to long-term joblessness, they’ll turn that excuse into dismal reality.
He is dead-on, and expresses so well OS has been attempting to verbalize in his halting fashion. (That's why Krugman gets paid well for his words, and OS still writes as a hobby...craft matters.)
OS spent a week on business in Northern Kentucky and Louisville, which are favored places in his world. Heartbreakingly beautiful is the description that comes to mind about the scenery and small towns on the south side of the Ohio River. And yet, there is another sort of hearbreak that overtakes him as he visits: It is evident that these towns were once profoundly prosperous, and have been gutted over time, by one recession after the other, each one playing a cruel game of musical chairs with the souls that inhabit them. The music stops, and another slice of people become the 'structurally unemployed', living in subsidized housing or trailers, shopping at the Walmart and Dollar Tree-type stores with their SNAP cards, because no new businesses arose from the ashes of the ones that died. They raise children who eke by in the public school, and seem adrift. OS had to make a late-night trip to Walmart, and was struck by the number of kids just 'hanging out', at their poor physical and mental condition. Depressing. One town on the route in particular, Carrollton, featured lovely Victorian homes with dismal trailers next door, empty storefronts in a downtown that had once obviously thrived. The connector road to the interstate completed the scene with trailer parks, a closed car dealership, weedy lots, etc. It's like the wind just died in the sails.
Krugman is right. The powers-that-be may have decided this is just the way things will be, with a very prosperous layer shopping-til-they-drop at St. Matthews Mall on Louisville's east end, and a vast semi-underclass huddled together in neighborhoods not too far removed, hanging on for dear life, hoping the music doesn't stop for them as well.
But then, bless him, he proposes that the solution is to have the gubbermint increase the pace of its borrowing and spending, as if much more of the same policy since January '09 will put the economy back up on its feet.
What's needed are businesses. In order to have businesses, entreprenuers are required, willing to risk. If they turn profits by meeting needs, they create wealth, which is distributed to the owners.
Gubbermint can't do that. It's not set up to do that. It can't be in the wealth-creation business. It's in the taxing and making rules business. That doesn't create wealth, and tends to destroy it over the long haul.
Still, Mr. Krugman is well worth the time invested, if for no other reason than to see how the liberal mind functions.
Monday, July 5, 2010
Weekend Insight Into The Unemployment Numbers
It has become a ritual.
The 'numbers' are published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics at the end of every month. They suck. By any reasonable standard, they just, well, suck. OS can tell you tales of his unemployed/underemployed friends and family; highly accomplished, energetic, ambitious people who now struggle in a culture and economy that has gone as limp as a sails on a windless day. But, you know those same people. You're surrounded by them. Perhaps you are one of them.
So, instead, OS has another story to tell. He has struck a friendship with a family in his small town that has opened a little restaurant, and blessedly, it is doing well. These folks have three generations of 'little restaurant' in their background, so they know the drill. It's wonderful to see.
The twenty-something son, who is a kid OS would adopt in a heartbeat, shared a story over breakfast Saturday:
He has a friend with a successful small business that provides a very good service throughout the South. It employs a lot of people, because it's one of those enterprises that requires a lot of people to run. In other words, this guy's firm is a job engine, and it can't be outsourced to Mexico or China.
He could expand his business by 50% next week, except--he's looked at the tax code. He's reached the limit of earnings he can take home from his business. Every dollar past what he's doing essentially goes away in taxes. In addition, his payroll costs, workman's comp, Social Security and Medicare costs, health and liability insurance costs, and his administrative costs and complications soar. If he expands, he exposes himself to a lot of risk, and almost no reward.
Soooo...that jobs engine sits idling.
Lather, rinse, repeat. Replicate his story a few thousand times in every state of the Union, stir gently, and you get the BLS numbers at the end of every month.
And you get to watch Christina Romer or some other flack from ObamaLand cheerily assure you that things aren't all that bad, and besides they're getting better, and if they suck it's because those mean Republicans won't let us borrow another trillion to drop from the helicopter and you're being mean by pointing out that we promised this wouldn't happen and you aren't smart enough to understand what I'm saying anyway 'cuz you didn't go to Harvard like I did and we know how to take care of little unwashed people like you I've got to go now and talk to someone else and tell them the same things see you at the end of next month.
The 'numbers' are published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics at the end of every month. They suck. By any reasonable standard, they just, well, suck. OS can tell you tales of his unemployed/underemployed friends and family; highly accomplished, energetic, ambitious people who now struggle in a culture and economy that has gone as limp as a sails on a windless day. But, you know those same people. You're surrounded by them. Perhaps you are one of them.
So, instead, OS has another story to tell. He has struck a friendship with a family in his small town that has opened a little restaurant, and blessedly, it is doing well. These folks have three generations of 'little restaurant' in their background, so they know the drill. It's wonderful to see.
The twenty-something son, who is a kid OS would adopt in a heartbeat, shared a story over breakfast Saturday:
He has a friend with a successful small business that provides a very good service throughout the South. It employs a lot of people, because it's one of those enterprises that requires a lot of people to run. In other words, this guy's firm is a job engine, and it can't be outsourced to Mexico or China.
He could expand his business by 50% next week, except--he's looked at the tax code. He's reached the limit of earnings he can take home from his business. Every dollar past what he's doing essentially goes away in taxes. In addition, his payroll costs, workman's comp, Social Security and Medicare costs, health and liability insurance costs, and his administrative costs and complications soar. If he expands, he exposes himself to a lot of risk, and almost no reward.
Soooo...that jobs engine sits idling.
Lather, rinse, repeat. Replicate his story a few thousand times in every state of the Union, stir gently, and you get the BLS numbers at the end of every month.
And you get to watch Christina Romer or some other flack from ObamaLand cheerily assure you that things aren't all that bad, and besides they're getting better, and if they suck it's because those mean Republicans won't let us borrow another trillion to drop from the helicopter and you're being mean by pointing out that we promised this wouldn't happen and you aren't smart enough to understand what I'm saying anyway 'cuz you didn't go to Harvard like I did and we know how to take care of little unwashed people like you I've got to go now and talk to someone else and tell them the same things see you at the end of next month.
Friday, June 4, 2010
The Great Obama Top-Kill Fail: May 2010 Jobs Report
Remember the Great Stimulus Porkgasm of 2009? The One arrived in Washington in January 2009 with The Mother Of All Spending Bills already written (Golly, Beaver--how did that happen? Maybe His posse already had their lists made up?), and demanded its passage. As in--ya'll don't need to read it, ya'll just need to pass it. Trust Me. Oprah does, and you can too.
If they didn't pass it, why unemployment would approach (gasp!) 10%. If they did, The One promised it wouldn't crack 8%, and The One knows about these things.
In the main, a Congress starved for fresh pork did just that. They never read it, and they passed it.
It didn't work.
Not even close, and even TurboTax Timmy admits it. (Big HT to innocentbystanders. net, by the way)
From Reuters this morning:
The Labor Department said on Friday payrolls rose 431,000 as the government hired 411,000 workers to conduct the population count. That was the largest monthly increase since March 2000 and marked a fifth straight month of gains.
But private employment, a barometer of labor market strength, increased just 41,000 after rising 218,000 in April, as employers opted to increase hours rather than hire new workers. The average workweek rose to 34.2 hours from 34.1 hours in April.
(Think about that second paragraph for a moment. This means that net fewer employees, since retirements and resignations aren't being replaced, are being required to take on more responsibilities, with no increase in compensation. Ya'll know that feeling: The sense that you're now doing the work of three people, instead of one ten or fifteen years ago. It's not just you--it is the reality of our Brave New Economy. And when you burn out, fifteen people stand in line to shoulder your load. It's a wonderful life, here in the land of YesWeCan.)
As many sane voices quietly attempted to explain, it was not going to work, because mathematically, it couldn't work. After almost eighty years of massive governmental interventions and tinkering in the economy and culture, and massive growth of debt, more debt and more intervention proved futile. Debt and intervention are the problem, not the solution.
It was the governmental equivalent of BP's ill-fated attempt to 'top-kill' the infamous oil leak a mile below the surface of the Gulf of Mexico. It was a noble effort, but no pump has been built that could push that much oil and gas back down into the ground. If it weren't a major gusher in the first place, the oil rig would still be quietly beavering away, and no one would have given any of it a second thought.
There is no amount of debt and money printing we can engage in that can refloat an economy crippled by debt and money printing. You can't cure a drunk with another case of Jack Daniels--that just accelerates the liver damage. As one old recovered drunk succinctly stated: 'The solution ain't in the problem. The solution's in the solution!'
The analogies break down past a certain point, obviously. But at the points they disintegrate, it only makes us as a culture look more foolish. It isn't like we weren't warned decades ago that the massive growth of government could only end in tears. It isn't like we didn't have the lessons of history at hand, ancient and modern, that demonstrated that only free market/free society/small government models survive, that top-down models always crash, because they must.
And now, as OleSouth prepares to treat the sainted Mrs. OS to breakfast at the local cafe, he is greeted with the visage of Cristina Romer, one of The One's White House shills, cheerfully assuring us all that we just have to give the stimulus programs time to work, etc. etc. etc., that all will be well and all manner of things will be well.
After all, The One is in charge. Trust us. Oprah does.
The interviewer is incredulous.
She doesn't look like she believes it, either, as she engages in verbal Top-Kill.
We now wait to see if the equity markets begin to finally respond realistically to reality. All those fools who bought long for too long are now about to experience the old 'wash-and-rinse', to borrow a favorite phrase from the wonderful Arthur Cutten.
If they didn't pass it, why unemployment would approach (gasp!) 10%. If they did, The One promised it wouldn't crack 8%, and The One knows about these things.
In the main, a Congress starved for fresh pork did just that. They never read it, and they passed it.
It didn't work.
Not even close, and even TurboTax Timmy admits it. (Big HT to innocentbystanders. net, by the way)
From Reuters this morning:
The Labor Department said on Friday payrolls rose 431,000 as the government hired 411,000 workers to conduct the population count. That was the largest monthly increase since March 2000 and marked a fifth straight month of gains.
But private employment, a barometer of labor market strength, increased just 41,000 after rising 218,000 in April, as employers opted to increase hours rather than hire new workers. The average workweek rose to 34.2 hours from 34.1 hours in April.
(Think about that second paragraph for a moment. This means that net fewer employees, since retirements and resignations aren't being replaced, are being required to take on more responsibilities, with no increase in compensation. Ya'll know that feeling: The sense that you're now doing the work of three people, instead of one ten or fifteen years ago. It's not just you--it is the reality of our Brave New Economy. And when you burn out, fifteen people stand in line to shoulder your load. It's a wonderful life, here in the land of YesWeCan.)
As many sane voices quietly attempted to explain, it was not going to work, because mathematically, it couldn't work. After almost eighty years of massive governmental interventions and tinkering in the economy and culture, and massive growth of debt, more debt and more intervention proved futile. Debt and intervention are the problem, not the solution.
It was the governmental equivalent of BP's ill-fated attempt to 'top-kill' the infamous oil leak a mile below the surface of the Gulf of Mexico. It was a noble effort, but no pump has been built that could push that much oil and gas back down into the ground. If it weren't a major gusher in the first place, the oil rig would still be quietly beavering away, and no one would have given any of it a second thought.
There is no amount of debt and money printing we can engage in that can refloat an economy crippled by debt and money printing. You can't cure a drunk with another case of Jack Daniels--that just accelerates the liver damage. As one old recovered drunk succinctly stated: 'The solution ain't in the problem. The solution's in the solution!'
The analogies break down past a certain point, obviously. But at the points they disintegrate, it only makes us as a culture look more foolish. It isn't like we weren't warned decades ago that the massive growth of government could only end in tears. It isn't like we didn't have the lessons of history at hand, ancient and modern, that demonstrated that only free market/free society/small government models survive, that top-down models always crash, because they must.
And now, as OleSouth prepares to treat the sainted Mrs. OS to breakfast at the local cafe, he is greeted with the visage of Cristina Romer, one of The One's White House shills, cheerfully assuring us all that we just have to give the stimulus programs time to work, etc. etc. etc., that all will be well and all manner of things will be well.
After all, The One is in charge. Trust us. Oprah does.
The interviewer is incredulous.
She doesn't look like she believes it, either, as she engages in verbal Top-Kill.
We now wait to see if the equity markets begin to finally respond realistically to reality. All those fools who bought long for too long are now about to experience the old 'wash-and-rinse', to borrow a favorite phrase from the wonderful Arthur Cutten.
Tuesday, March 2, 2010
Massaging The Bad News In Advance
Reuters reports that Larry Summers, the White House economic advisor, is already spinning this Friday's unemployment report by saying it will be 'distorted' by the winter blizzards.
Hmm...it could lead one to believe that the numbers will be very ugly.
Now, if April through June bring us glorious weather, and there is a sudden surge in employment, will that be attributed to the weather? Or will Himself be found shouting from the rooftops, 'See, my insane spending programs worked! You AstroTurferClimateDeniersRightWingRadicals were all wrong!'?
What do you think?
OS smells an unemployment rate well north of 10% on Friday.
At some point, reality has to set in for the financial markets. Someone will finally head for the exits, and the liquidation will begin. It's like watching a train wreck from five miles away: You know those two trains are closing on one another quickly, but from a distance, it almost appears to be slow-motion.
And you can't do a blessed thing about it.
It's gonna be ugly.
Hmm...it could lead one to believe that the numbers will be very ugly.
Now, if April through June bring us glorious weather, and there is a sudden surge in employment, will that be attributed to the weather? Or will Himself be found shouting from the rooftops, 'See, my insane spending programs worked! You AstroTurferClimateDeniersRightWingRadicals were all wrong!'?
What do you think?
OS smells an unemployment rate well north of 10% on Friday.
At some point, reality has to set in for the financial markets. Someone will finally head for the exits, and the liquidation will begin. It's like watching a train wreck from five miles away: You know those two trains are closing on one another quickly, but from a distance, it almost appears to be slow-motion.
And you can't do a blessed thing about it.
It's gonna be ugly.
Monday, February 22, 2010
Saturday Morning, Small-Town South
The workload is enormous at OldSouth's international corporate HQ (and if you believe he works from a corner office, then he has such investment opportunities for you! You see, we buy up all these dodgy mortgages, slice them into teeny-tiny pieces, and sell bonds backed up by all those teeny-tiny pieces. And, if anything goes wrong, the taxpayers make you whole, 100 cents on the dollar....well, never mind....).
No really, Saturday morning, we had to get out of the house, and treat ourselves to breakfast at a little family-owned place in town. Called the daughter in grad school, to see if she wanted to join us, no answer, oh well. Drove into our little town, past the increasingly vacant little office buildings, the vacant car dealership, the 'for sale' and 'for rent' signs.
We walk in the restaurant, and hear the daughter's voice: 'What are my parents doing here?' Great minds think alike, she's escaped to breakfast with her best friend from high-school, unemployed by the Great Recession. College education, industrious, attractive, bright sense of humor, papering her world with job applications. Usually, not even an acknowledgment of receipt of the application. Unemployment benefits still running, but of course no heath coverage. Living at home again. Some days, she says, she just doesn't want to leave the house.
Any number of thoughts come to mind. This young lady is now at least a year now from establishing a separate household for herself, even if she finds a good job next week. Marriage, family not on the horizon, and she's now twenty-five. This does not bode well for real-estate over the next five years or so around here.
She's not untypical, except she has the college degree.
OS is concerned that we are witnessing an entire group of young people slowly becoming marooned.
(Hmm...millions upon millions of jobs saved or created.)
No really, Saturday morning, we had to get out of the house, and treat ourselves to breakfast at a little family-owned place in town. Called the daughter in grad school, to see if she wanted to join us, no answer, oh well. Drove into our little town, past the increasingly vacant little office buildings, the vacant car dealership, the 'for sale' and 'for rent' signs.
We walk in the restaurant, and hear the daughter's voice: 'What are my parents doing here?' Great minds think alike, she's escaped to breakfast with her best friend from high-school, unemployed by the Great Recession. College education, industrious, attractive, bright sense of humor, papering her world with job applications. Usually, not even an acknowledgment of receipt of the application. Unemployment benefits still running, but of course no heath coverage. Living at home again. Some days, she says, she just doesn't want to leave the house.
Any number of thoughts come to mind. This young lady is now at least a year now from establishing a separate household for herself, even if she finds a good job next week. Marriage, family not on the horizon, and she's now twenty-five. This does not bode well for real-estate over the next five years or so around here.
She's not untypical, except she has the college degree.
OS is concerned that we are witnessing an entire group of young people slowly becoming marooned.
(Hmm...millions upon millions of jobs saved or created.)
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