The interview is here.
There is a set of unarguable verities shared by The Left. As soon as someone dares suggest those verities aren't, well, true, the serious name-calling begins.
One is: Israel Bad/Hamas Good
Then there's: There really is no problem with gubbermint borrowing 41 cents of every dollar we spend. There is an endless supply, obtained either by printing or taxation. To suggest spending even a nickel less is to advocate throwing Grandma and her walker under the bus.
And one of Himself's favorites: We gonnah' shut them big-bad ohl cumpaneez down, and run the kuntry on wind power, solar power and biofuels. We don't need no ohl, 'cuz it kills them cute liddle poler bearz.
Finally, a head of an oil company willing to push back, politely, with the truth.
There is no oil shortage in America. There is a shortage of brains and common sense among our political class, which regularly leads us back to $4 and $5 gasoline and diesel. Which, oddly enough, people like Obama and Reid think is somehow wonderful.
Enter the tall, bespectacled Mr. Watson, who a little more than a year ago stepped into the shoes of longtime CEO David O'Reilly. An economist by training, soft-spoken by nature, the 53-year-old Mr. Watson is hardly some swaggering wildcatter. Yet in a year of speeches, he has emerged as one of the industry's foremost energy realists. No "Beyond Petroleum" (BP) for him. On energy, he says, America "has a lot to learn."
Starting with the argument—so popular among greens and Democrats—that we are running out of oil. "Peak oil"—the theory that global oil production will soon hit maximum levels and begin to decline—is a favorite among this crowd, and it is one basis for their call for more biofuels and solar power. Mr. Watson doesn't dismiss the idea but explains why it remains largely irrelevant.
In theory, he says, "we've been running out of oil and gas for a long time," yet technology creates new opportunities. Mr. Watson cites a Chevron field long in decline down the road in Bakersfield—to the point that for every 100 barrels of oil "in place," the company was extracting only 10 or 20. But thanks to a new technology called steam flooding, Chevron is now getting 70 to 80 barrels. "Price creates incentive, and energy will be developed if there's demand for it at the price you can develop it," Mr. Watson says. In that sense, "oil and gas are plentiful."
Don't believe it? Over the past 30 years, even as "peak oil" was a trendy theme, the world's proven reserves of oil and natural gas increased 130%, to 2.5 trillion barrels.
And that little lie about 'alternative energy'? Well, it's...a lie.
Mr. Watson has little time for the Beltway fiction that America will soon be able to do without, or nearly without, fossil fuels. Yes, "we need all forms of energy." But the world consumes 250 million barrels of energy equivalent today, only a "tiny fraction of which" is wind and solar—and even those "are not affordable at scale," he says.
As for biofuels, "we would need to consume land the size of states" to hit the country's current ethanol targets. Chevron is investigating biofuels, but Mr. Watson says the "economics aren't there" yet. Unlike many CEOs, Mr. Watson insists on products that can prosper without federal subsidies, which he believes are costly and lacking in transparency when "consumer pockets are tight, government pockets are tight."
Bottom line: "We're going to need oil and gas and coal for a long time if America wants to keep the lights on."
Then there's deep-water drilling, the BoogeyMan of The Left:
But what about the BP Gulf spill? Mr. Watson blames the "cultural aspects and behavioral aspects" of the particular drilling rig that exploded. He roundly disagrees with the finding of Mr. Obama's spill commission that the "root causes" of the spill were "systemic" to the industry.
"There is no evidence to support that. I don't know how that conclusion was reached. I know the industry has drilled 14,000 deep water wells without having this sort of problem." As for the moratorium, "I can understand taking a pause. I can't understand shutting down a whole industry for a better part of a year."
OS can--Obama and company want to kill it off, and to punish the states that didn't knuckle under and vote for him last time. That one doesn't require an MIT degree to discern. But, then again, Mr. Watson is a gentleman, and isn't obligated to share the entire contents of his mind with an interviewer.
It's a refreshing read. It needs to be shared far and wide.
Saturday, April 16, 2011
Remember The Mantra: Israel Bad/Hamas Good, Israel Bad/Hamas Good,Israel Bad/Hamas Good--(keep going until you believe it...)
GAZA (Reuters) – Hamas found the body Friday of a pro-Palestinian Italian activist who was killed by al Qaeda sympathizers in the Gaza Strip, raising questions about Hamas's control over the beleaguered enclave. Two men were arrested and others were being sought for the abduction and killing of Vittorio Arrigoni, 36, who was found strangled in an abandoned house Friday, Hamas officials said.
A group of strict Islamists aligned with al Qaeda, known as Salafists, had threatened Thursday to execute Arrigoni unless their leader, detained by Hamas last month, was freed.
It was an unprecedented challenge for Hamas, an Islamist group whose diehard hostility to Israel has deepened the isolation and poverty of Gaza, home to 1.5 million Palestinians.
"Gaza is safe and I want to assure all visitors to Gaza that they are safe and secure," Ismail Haniyeh, the Hamas prime minister, told a French journalist.
"The crime that took place was an isolated incident ... and we will enforce the law against the perpetrators."
Hamas vehemently opposes the Salafists who espouse a more extreme form of Islam and appear to be attracting recruits -- including from among its own ranks.
Salafists see Hamas as insufficiently zealous, have attacked Internet cafes and want Christians expelled. They deplore Hamas for considering ceasefires with Israel and exploring political accommodation with secular Palestinian rivals.
And, from Donald Sensing, a story with video just too horrifying to describe...
A group of strict Islamists aligned with al Qaeda, known as Salafists, had threatened Thursday to execute Arrigoni unless their leader, detained by Hamas last month, was freed.
It was an unprecedented challenge for Hamas, an Islamist group whose diehard hostility to Israel has deepened the isolation and poverty of Gaza, home to 1.5 million Palestinians.
"Gaza is safe and I want to assure all visitors to Gaza that they are safe and secure," Ismail Haniyeh, the Hamas prime minister, told a French journalist.
"The crime that took place was an isolated incident ... and we will enforce the law against the perpetrators."
Hamas vehemently opposes the Salafists who espouse a more extreme form of Islam and appear to be attracting recruits -- including from among its own ranks.
Salafists see Hamas as insufficiently zealous, have attacked Internet cafes and want Christians expelled. They deplore Hamas for considering ceasefires with Israel and exploring political accommodation with secular Palestinian rivals.
And, from Donald Sensing, a story with video just too horrifying to describe...
Singing Bach In The Ruins: Easter 1950 Dresden, Easter 2011 Here
A Facebook friend sent along a link to this video a few days ago, and OS has been meditating upon since seeing it. It's a 1950 recording of a German boy named Peter Schreier, singing one of the alto arias from Bach's St. John Passion--Es ist vollbracht--It is finished.
Schreier grew up, and became one of the great tenors of the twentieth century. It's easy to hear the promise in that boy's voice as he sings.
What struck OS most was not just the boy's voice. It was the boy's voice, recorded so beautifully in 1950 Dresden, still in rubble from the British fire-bombing of World War II. It was a miracle he was alive, and that Bach was still being played, sung and recorded in that place that year.
The video is worth viewing for the beauty of the music, and for the photos that pan as the music plays. The most telling is a shot of the boys choir in their cassocks, outside the church, singing in a rubble-filled street. They literally sang Bach amongst the ruins of one of the world's great cities. They kept showing up, despite the devastation around them, and the losses they had suffered, to sing Bach in church.
OS has friends who recently visited Dresden and Leipzig, and attended concerts and services in the old Lutheran churches. They came back with reports that faith and hope were alive and well in those buildings, in contrast to the weary cynicism encountered in The West.
Easter approaches, and OS wishes his readers a blessed one. We live in much more comfort, most of us, than those children in Dresden, but to hold to a Christian faith here increasingly means singing in the ruins of a culture that decided to self-destruct.
The message is--It is finished. Evil cannot possibly win in the end, because death itself has been conquered. And we will not always sing in the ruins. There is a day and time appointed when all will be set right.
Until then, though, we sing.
Lyrics:
Es ist vollbracht!
O Trost vor die gekränkten Seelen!
Die Trauernacht
Läßt nun die letzte Stunde zählen.
Der Held aus Juda siegt mit Macht
und schließt den Kampf.
Es ist vollbracht!
Translation:
It is fulfilled!
O hope for ev'ry ailing spirit!
The night of grief
Is now its final hours counting.
The man of Judah wins with might
And ends the fight.
It is fulfilled!
Schreier grew up, and became one of the great tenors of the twentieth century. It's easy to hear the promise in that boy's voice as he sings.
What struck OS most was not just the boy's voice. It was the boy's voice, recorded so beautifully in 1950 Dresden, still in rubble from the British fire-bombing of World War II. It was a miracle he was alive, and that Bach was still being played, sung and recorded in that place that year.
The video is worth viewing for the beauty of the music, and for the photos that pan as the music plays. The most telling is a shot of the boys choir in their cassocks, outside the church, singing in a rubble-filled street. They literally sang Bach amongst the ruins of one of the world's great cities. They kept showing up, despite the devastation around them, and the losses they had suffered, to sing Bach in church.
OS has friends who recently visited Dresden and Leipzig, and attended concerts and services in the old Lutheran churches. They came back with reports that faith and hope were alive and well in those buildings, in contrast to the weary cynicism encountered in The West.
Easter approaches, and OS wishes his readers a blessed one. We live in much more comfort, most of us, than those children in Dresden, but to hold to a Christian faith here increasingly means singing in the ruins of a culture that decided to self-destruct.
The message is--It is finished. Evil cannot possibly win in the end, because death itself has been conquered. And we will not always sing in the ruins. There is a day and time appointed when all will be set right.
Until then, though, we sing.
Lyrics:
Es ist vollbracht!
O Trost vor die gekränkten Seelen!
Die Trauernacht
Läßt nun die letzte Stunde zählen.
Der Held aus Juda siegt mit Macht
und schließt den Kampf.
Es ist vollbracht!
Translation:
It is fulfilled!
O hope for ev'ry ailing spirit!
The night of grief
Is now its final hours counting.
The man of Judah wins with might
And ends the fight.
It is fulfilled!
Thursday, April 14, 2011
Interlude, 13 April 2011: Musings On The Meaning Of Four-Dollar Gas
OldSouth hasn't had time or energy to gather many thoughts of late--working pedal-to-the-metal, with a seemingly endless pile of tasks to accomplish in the coming six to eight weeks. It's one of 'those times', everyone goes through them.
Watching gasoline approach $4.00 the gallon in the US, and aware that we float on a sea of oil and natural gas our own government won't allow to be extracted and refined is utterly maddening. Words just fail, except to say that we are now entering about our fortieth year of willful blindness. We have waged two out-and-out wars with Iraq, started another in Libya, have had the fleet all over the Strait of Hormuz, the Med, the Indian Ocean, and everyone armed to the teeth there since about 1970 at least. Then there's Israel, who have located their own domestic sources of petroleum. Bet it won't be much of a debate about extracting and refining their own oil!
How many people have we gotten killed because we won't follow the obvious wise course?
How much treasure has been expended? How many dictators propped up?
How many jobs lost and careers curtailed because of the booms and busts that fuel price rises and falls create?
It's incalculable, but it's real. We've become so numb to it, we forget that it's an insane way to live.
We keep making stupid cultural decisions, whose consequences show up later when industries melt down.
This one is a no-brainer. Let's drill, dig, build refineries, reactors (ooh, he said the 'R' word) not constructed on major seismic faults, dams with hydro generators, coal-fired generators, gas pipelines, and anything else we can think of that will keep the lights on and the economy on the road. Let's do it now.
Let's get this done.
Watching gasoline approach $4.00 the gallon in the US, and aware that we float on a sea of oil and natural gas our own government won't allow to be extracted and refined is utterly maddening. Words just fail, except to say that we are now entering about our fortieth year of willful blindness. We have waged two out-and-out wars with Iraq, started another in Libya, have had the fleet all over the Strait of Hormuz, the Med, the Indian Ocean, and everyone armed to the teeth there since about 1970 at least. Then there's Israel, who have located their own domestic sources of petroleum. Bet it won't be much of a debate about extracting and refining their own oil!
How many people have we gotten killed because we won't follow the obvious wise course?
How much treasure has been expended? How many dictators propped up?
How many jobs lost and careers curtailed because of the booms and busts that fuel price rises and falls create?
It's incalculable, but it's real. We've become so numb to it, we forget that it's an insane way to live.
We keep making stupid cultural decisions, whose consequences show up later when industries melt down.
This one is a no-brainer. Let's drill, dig, build refineries, reactors (ooh, he said the 'R' word) not constructed on major seismic faults, dams with hydro generators, coal-fired generators, gas pipelines, and anything else we can think of that will keep the lights on and the economy on the road. Let's do it now.
Let's get this done.
Tuesday, April 12, 2011
Simon Johnson: Private Gain, Public Loss--The Real Cost Of Too-Big-To-Fail
Simon Johnson is one of those rare economists who knows how to talk about economics in Plain English. He has a breathtakingly strong resume. He does not have any particular political axe to grind. And he pulls no punches. He draws the line of direct relationship between the reckless bankers, the complicit governments, and the miseries created by both on the ground around the world.
OS just encountered this recent address of Johnson, and it is well worth a few minutes spent viewing. He points out, for instance, that Citigroup has blown up three times in the past thirty years, each time rescued by the public sector in one way or another.
Johnson really gets going in his summation at about the 8:00 mark.
OS just encountered this recent address of Johnson, and it is well worth a few minutes spent viewing. He points out, for instance, that Citigroup has blown up three times in the past thirty years, each time rescued by the public sector in one way or another.
Johnson really gets going in his summation at about the 8:00 mark.
Sunday, April 10, 2011
Iceland Stands Tall--Banks And Depositors Must Bear Risks, Not The Taxpayers
Good for them!
By ASSOCIATED PRESS
REYKJAVIK, Iceland -- Icelandic voters appeared Sunday to have rejected a government-approved deal to repay Britain and the Netherlands $5 billion for their citizens' deposits in the failed online bank Icesave.
Partial results of a national referendum suggested the "no" side had gained more than half the votes -- a reflection of enduring anger over the economic havoc wrought by Iceland's risk-taking bankers.
Full results were not due until later Sunday. With partial results in from all six of Iceland's constituencies, the no side had almost 57 percent of the votes and the yes camp just over 43 percent.
"This is of course a disappointing result," said Prime Minister Johanna Sigurdardottir.
'...a disappointing result...'--but for whom?
The day is long overdue when the idea of 'risk' should be reintroduced to bankers, depositors, and borrowers. There is always the possibility that things might go wrong, since Murphy and his law are alive and well.
There is also the idea of 'moral hazard'. Lay the risk off to third parties, and an individual is allowed to behave recklessly. (Sound familiar?)
Here's a more formal definition:
Moral hazard arises because an individual or institution does not take the full consequences and responsibilities of its actions, and therefore has a tendency to act less carefully than it otherwise would, leaving another party to hold some responsibility for the consequences of those actions.
In this case, British and Dutch savers had lost money when IceSave bank collapsed. Their own governments made them whole (because?), and attempted to stick the Icelandic taxpayer with the bill, threatening retaliation via the EU. Given the chaos created by the Euro, exclusion from that clown circus should be a blessing.
Next on the task list: Send the Prime Minister packing, along with the geniuses who put the country through the referendum in the first place. A few prosecutions of the bankers responsible might also prove invigorating for the health of the economy in general. It's good for everyone, top to bottom, to understand the concept of risk and the dangers of moral hazard.
Here's hoping the Irish take heart, and demand their bailout terms and EU participation be put to a vote.
OS likes fish. He'll be shopping for Icelandic cod this week...
By ASSOCIATED PRESS
REYKJAVIK, Iceland -- Icelandic voters appeared Sunday to have rejected a government-approved deal to repay Britain and the Netherlands $5 billion for their citizens' deposits in the failed online bank Icesave.
Partial results of a national referendum suggested the "no" side had gained more than half the votes -- a reflection of enduring anger over the economic havoc wrought by Iceland's risk-taking bankers.
Full results were not due until later Sunday. With partial results in from all six of Iceland's constituencies, the no side had almost 57 percent of the votes and the yes camp just over 43 percent.
"This is of course a disappointing result," said Prime Minister Johanna Sigurdardottir.
'...a disappointing result...'--but for whom?
The day is long overdue when the idea of 'risk' should be reintroduced to bankers, depositors, and borrowers. There is always the possibility that things might go wrong, since Murphy and his law are alive and well.
There is also the idea of 'moral hazard'. Lay the risk off to third parties, and an individual is allowed to behave recklessly. (Sound familiar?)
Here's a more formal definition:
Moral hazard arises because an individual or institution does not take the full consequences and responsibilities of its actions, and therefore has a tendency to act less carefully than it otherwise would, leaving another party to hold some responsibility for the consequences of those actions.
In this case, British and Dutch savers had lost money when IceSave bank collapsed. Their own governments made them whole (because?), and attempted to stick the Icelandic taxpayer with the bill, threatening retaliation via the EU. Given the chaos created by the Euro, exclusion from that clown circus should be a blessing.
Next on the task list: Send the Prime Minister packing, along with the geniuses who put the country through the referendum in the first place. A few prosecutions of the bankers responsible might also prove invigorating for the health of the economy in general. It's good for everyone, top to bottom, to understand the concept of risk and the dangers of moral hazard.
Here's hoping the Irish take heart, and demand their bailout terms and EU participation be put to a vote.
OS likes fish. He'll be shopping for Icelandic cod this week...
An Utter Miscarriage Of Justice: Harry Connick Nearly Gets Away With Judicial Murder, And John Thompson, His Victim, Is Denied Compensation
This story sort of floated to the surface and vanished in the furor of events in North Africa, and the soap opera staged this week by the children who inhabit elected office in Washington.
Long story short, District Attorney Harry Connick's office deliberately railroaded an innocent man toward the electric chair, both by misuse of the legal process and the witholding of exculpatory evidence.
John Thompson, his victim, tells his story at the link. The Supreme Court threw out his lawsuit (won in lower courts) for 18 million dollars, one million for every year Connick's office stole from his life; 18 years in Angola prison, Louisiana, many of them spent on death row.
OS thinks we best pay attention. It was only by the extraordinary pro-bono efforts of a law firm that Thompson is alive to tell his story. It is why OS is so very uncomfortable with the death penalty. He has been around too many lawyers in his lifetime. He has rubbed elbows with respectable attorneys, gents who sit on boards and teach Sunday School, who would gladly see an innocent person put to death, just so long as the case was won, the career advanced, and the tee time not delayed in the process.
The case of the Duke students wrongly accused of rape was chilling as well. In this case, though, the families of the boys had the resources to fight back. The case fell apart before ever making it to trial. DA Nifong ended up disbarred, discredited, filing for bankruptcy. Further lawsuits are still in litigation, and Duke paid a high price in cash payouts, loss of reputation, and more. Here's hoping the bleeding continues, until a sense of appropriate caution descends upon the institution and its faculty.
(Would any sane mother send her son to Duke, aware that most of that school's administration and faculty are still in place? Would any sane person move to Durham, knowing the investigators, and assistant DA's are still in circulation?)
In this case, the stakes were so much higher, and Thompson did not have those resources. How many more innocents has Connick killed or sent to Angola to live out their days? We'll not likely know, but we do know that of 30 allegations of prosecutorial misconduct brought against Connick, 19 acquittals have resulted.
Hmmm...
Juries are supposed to be the counterweight to prosecutors. But if juries are misled by prosecutors, that safeguard goes away. It is obvious that this conviction was deliberately, fraudulently obtained, with the death of the defendant as the outcome sought. Isn't that a definition of conspiracy to murder, even attempted murder? Why shouldn't the prosecutors, police and judges be required to put their law licenses, careers, wealth and houses on the line when they prosecute felonies, especially death penalty cases?
Would it not encourage a certain sobriety?
Again, OS repeats: It is very common to create a highly educated, effective, literate, articulate adult who can take the bar exam, without ever taking care to ensure a conscience takes hold. Such a person can hold public office. He can get innocent people killed, one-by-one in the case of Mr. Connick, or by the boxcar load in the case of a Himmler.
The Supreme Court (Ivy League lawyers all...) failed to see, once again, what happens to small people ground under by a large government.
More detailed analysis from Atlantic Magazine here.
Long story short, District Attorney Harry Connick's office deliberately railroaded an innocent man toward the electric chair, both by misuse of the legal process and the witholding of exculpatory evidence.
John Thompson, his victim, tells his story at the link. The Supreme Court threw out his lawsuit (won in lower courts) for 18 million dollars, one million for every year Connick's office stole from his life; 18 years in Angola prison, Louisiana, many of them spent on death row.
OS thinks we best pay attention. It was only by the extraordinary pro-bono efforts of a law firm that Thompson is alive to tell his story. It is why OS is so very uncomfortable with the death penalty. He has been around too many lawyers in his lifetime. He has rubbed elbows with respectable attorneys, gents who sit on boards and teach Sunday School, who would gladly see an innocent person put to death, just so long as the case was won, the career advanced, and the tee time not delayed in the process.
The case of the Duke students wrongly accused of rape was chilling as well. In this case, though, the families of the boys had the resources to fight back. The case fell apart before ever making it to trial. DA Nifong ended up disbarred, discredited, filing for bankruptcy. Further lawsuits are still in litigation, and Duke paid a high price in cash payouts, loss of reputation, and more. Here's hoping the bleeding continues, until a sense of appropriate caution descends upon the institution and its faculty.
(Would any sane mother send her son to Duke, aware that most of that school's administration and faculty are still in place? Would any sane person move to Durham, knowing the investigators, and assistant DA's are still in circulation?)
In this case, the stakes were so much higher, and Thompson did not have those resources. How many more innocents has Connick killed or sent to Angola to live out their days? We'll not likely know, but we do know that of 30 allegations of prosecutorial misconduct brought against Connick, 19 acquittals have resulted.
Hmmm...
Juries are supposed to be the counterweight to prosecutors. But if juries are misled by prosecutors, that safeguard goes away. It is obvious that this conviction was deliberately, fraudulently obtained, with the death of the defendant as the outcome sought. Isn't that a definition of conspiracy to murder, even attempted murder? Why shouldn't the prosecutors, police and judges be required to put their law licenses, careers, wealth and houses on the line when they prosecute felonies, especially death penalty cases?
Would it not encourage a certain sobriety?
Again, OS repeats: It is very common to create a highly educated, effective, literate, articulate adult who can take the bar exam, without ever taking care to ensure a conscience takes hold. Such a person can hold public office. He can get innocent people killed, one-by-one in the case of Mr. Connick, or by the boxcar load in the case of a Himmler.
The Supreme Court (Ivy League lawyers all...) failed to see, once again, what happens to small people ground under by a large government.
More detailed analysis from Atlantic Magazine here.
Saturday, April 9, 2011
Just When You Think The Rhetoric Can't Become More Poisonous...:Louise Slaughter's Rant This Week
Even for a reckless 'say-anything-I-think-will-juice-the-crowd' sort of politician, this latest rant scrapes a new bottom of the septic tank.
In a way, it may not matter who 'wins' or 'loses' the standoff tonight. The well is becoming so poisoned that it may be very difficult for anything to get done on any decision that needs to be made for the rest of the year.
In a way, it may not matter who 'wins' or 'loses' the standoff tonight. The well is becoming so poisoned that it may be very difficult for anything to get done on any decision that needs to be made for the rest of the year.
Friday, April 8, 2011
OldSouth Attempts To Understand The Math: This Week's Federal Budget Resolution Negotiations
The coverage has been breathless and constant--the pitched battle over whether Congress will reduce 2011 Federal budget spending by 60 billion dollars, or 30 billion dollars, or some number in between, or perhaps not at all, if DaPrez, Mr. Harry and Mizzzz Nancy had their way.
OS has been busy this week, trying to keep the plates of several unrelated projects spinning, enjoying the opening week of baseball season (Boston's zip-4-six??), and the opening day of the Masters. He has high hopes for young Mr. McIlroy, and Mrs. OS is a fan of Mr. Choi.
But, he has attempted to understand the math in the context of the emotionally charged language that is flooding the culture--e.g., 'If'n yuh don't agree wif me, yew is a scalawag of the worst kind.' As always, the Left is more practiced at spewing the poison, but there's lots of it going 'round this week. The Religious Right seems to want to score points as well. Somehow, a bankrupt United States, and the chaos, poverty and despair that would cause, is not an ethical issue in their minds. Sheeeeut.
So, with a bit of time off this evening, he began to review numbers, to see what is being talked about. After all, 60 billion dollars sounds like a boatload-o-money-hunney to a normal drudge like OS.
He decided to look up the amount of money intended to be spent by The Gubb'mint in FY 2011. The Budget that Our Beloved Leader proposed to Congress back in February of 2010, when the Dems controlled both houses, calls for spending $3.83 trillion and the federal deficit is forecast to be $1.56 trillion in 2010 and $1.27 trillion in 2011. Total debt is budgeted to increase from $11.9 trillion in FY2009, to $13.8 trillion in FY2010, and $15.1 trillion in FY2011.
That's a lot-o-munney, hunney!
OS had to call up a spreadsheet, and start attempting to type in that figure. He had to format cells for lots of digits and decimal points to make this exercise work.
So, sez-he/he-sez:
383, three hundred eighty three.
383,000 three hundred eighty three thousand. Let's add three zeros, multiplying it by a thousand. Sort of like using the spreadsheet as an abacus...know-whudd-ah-mean?
383,000,000. Three hundred eighty-three million. Let's add another three zeros...
383,000,000,000 Three hundred eighty-three billion. Let's multiply by 10, one zero.
3,830,000,000,000 Three trillion, eight hundred thirty billion. That's so many zeros, OS had to dink with the spreadsheet's cell formatting. (His laptop is beginning to smoke, by the way.)
Let's go back to the proposed reductions in spending of, say, $60 billion, which our friends at the NEA call 'right-wing lawmakers insisting on draconian cuts to critical services'. Dem Waskawy Repubwikans!
That figure looks like this: 60,000,000,000.
OS's poor head hurts looking at all those zeros, so he decided to begin removing equal numbers of zeros from both numbers, which would keep the relationship between the values of those two numbers constant.
So, if we remove, say, six zeros from each number, we end up with--
3,830,000 and 60,000. Looks like a small business now. Hmmm, subtract another zero on each side.
383,000 and 6000--looks like a mom-n-pop gas station numbers.
38,300 and 600, looks like a single person's numbers.
3830 and 60 -- a month's take-home and one tank of gas in the age of Obama.
So, what percentage of 3830 is 60?
60 divided by 3830 gives us: 0.015665796
Excel tells OS to multiply this by 100 to arrive at a percentage: 1.5665796345 percent.
Round to two decimals: 1.57 percent.
Now, in reality, they're only talking about cutting about 30 billion dollars, so let's divide 1.57 by 2: 0.785 percent. It appears Mr. Harry, Miz Nancy, Our Beloved Leader and the NEA consider a reduction in spending by 0.785 percent to be unthinkably draconian.
0.785 percent. That is what is being fought over. Or perhaps, what is being fought over is the idea that spending should be restrained at all. Somehow, it will all be paid for, by the rich perhaps. Or we'll just borrow the difference, and leave it for the grandchildren to pay.
Now, let's look at another ratio: If we are running a 1.56 trillion deficit on a 3.83 trillion budget, that means we're borrowing 1.56 trillion a year. What's that percentage?
1.56/3.83=40.73%
The Treasury is borrowing (in our name) almost 41 cents on every dollar Duh Gubbermint is spending on the Federal level. We owe upwards of 15 trillion dollars, after decades of this behavior.
Lessee, OS has to reset his spreadsheet again. If we cut spending by 30 billion, what percentage of the national debt have we potentially shaved off?
Pull as many zeros as we can from both numbers and it looks like 1500 and 3.
3 divided by 1500=.002
Multiply by 100 to determine percentage: .2 percent. Two-tenths of one percent shaved from a debt of 15 trillion dollars.
Now, if we owe 15 trillion dollars, what's our interest payment obligation? Right now, interest rates are at an unhistorical low. Everything reverts to the mean, so let's say the day comes when the market decides it wants us to pay a nice round number, say 5% on our borrowed money, per annum.
15,000,000,000,000 times .05=750,000,000 Seven hundred fifty billion, which must be paid, lest we default. If we default, the dollar soon ceases to be recognized as a medium of exchange anywhere. Think Argentina...
What if we end up having to pay 750 billion dollars of interest on an annual budget of 3.8 trillion? That would mean 19.6% percent of the annual expenditure would be on interest payments alone. Not principal paydown, just interest. Wonder how long it would be until the market decides they'd like 8% on their money to compensate for the level of risk that 19.6% represents. Hmmm...that could get ugly, quickly.
Think Greece, Portugal, Spain, Argentina....
Gotta go, OS's laptop is smoking again!
Besides, it's bottom of the 7th, the Orioles are beating up on the Tigers 9-5. Two on, two outs, count is 1 and 2. Those are manageable, understandable numbers.
OS has been busy this week, trying to keep the plates of several unrelated projects spinning, enjoying the opening week of baseball season (Boston's zip-4-six??), and the opening day of the Masters. He has high hopes for young Mr. McIlroy, and Mrs. OS is a fan of Mr. Choi.
But, he has attempted to understand the math in the context of the emotionally charged language that is flooding the culture--e.g., 'If'n yuh don't agree wif me, yew is a scalawag of the worst kind.' As always, the Left is more practiced at spewing the poison, but there's lots of it going 'round this week. The Religious Right seems to want to score points as well. Somehow, a bankrupt United States, and the chaos, poverty and despair that would cause, is not an ethical issue in their minds. Sheeeeut.
So, with a bit of time off this evening, he began to review numbers, to see what is being talked about. After all, 60 billion dollars sounds like a boatload-o-money-hunney to a normal drudge like OS.
He decided to look up the amount of money intended to be spent by The Gubb'mint in FY 2011. The Budget that Our Beloved Leader proposed to Congress back in February of 2010, when the Dems controlled both houses, calls for spending $3.83 trillion and the federal deficit is forecast to be $1.56 trillion in 2010 and $1.27 trillion in 2011. Total debt is budgeted to increase from $11.9 trillion in FY2009, to $13.8 trillion in FY2010, and $15.1 trillion in FY2011.
That's a lot-o-munney, hunney!
OS had to call up a spreadsheet, and start attempting to type in that figure. He had to format cells for lots of digits and decimal points to make this exercise work.
So, sez-he/he-sez:
383, three hundred eighty three.
383,000 three hundred eighty three thousand. Let's add three zeros, multiplying it by a thousand. Sort of like using the spreadsheet as an abacus...know-whudd-ah-mean?
383,000,000. Three hundred eighty-three million. Let's add another three zeros...
383,000,000,000 Three hundred eighty-three billion. Let's multiply by 10, one zero.
3,830,000,000,000 Three trillion, eight hundred thirty billion. That's so many zeros, OS had to dink with the spreadsheet's cell formatting. (His laptop is beginning to smoke, by the way.)
Let's go back to the proposed reductions in spending of, say, $60 billion, which our friends at the NEA call 'right-wing lawmakers insisting on draconian cuts to critical services'. Dem Waskawy Repubwikans!
That figure looks like this: 60,000,000,000.
OS's poor head hurts looking at all those zeros, so he decided to begin removing equal numbers of zeros from both numbers, which would keep the relationship between the values of those two numbers constant.
So, if we remove, say, six zeros from each number, we end up with--
3,830,000 and 60,000. Looks like a small business now. Hmmm, subtract another zero on each side.
383,000 and 6000--looks like a mom-n-pop gas station numbers.
38,300 and 600, looks like a single person's numbers.
3830 and 60 -- a month's take-home and one tank of gas in the age of Obama.
So, what percentage of 3830 is 60?
60 divided by 3830 gives us: 0.015665796
Excel tells OS to multiply this by 100 to arrive at a percentage: 1.5665796345 percent.
Round to two decimals: 1.57 percent.
Now, in reality, they're only talking about cutting about 30 billion dollars, so let's divide 1.57 by 2: 0.785 percent. It appears Mr. Harry, Miz Nancy, Our Beloved Leader and the NEA consider a reduction in spending by 0.785 percent to be unthinkably draconian.
0.785 percent. That is what is being fought over. Or perhaps, what is being fought over is the idea that spending should be restrained at all. Somehow, it will all be paid for, by the rich perhaps. Or we'll just borrow the difference, and leave it for the grandchildren to pay.
Now, let's look at another ratio: If we are running a 1.56 trillion deficit on a 3.83 trillion budget, that means we're borrowing 1.56 trillion a year. What's that percentage?
1.56/3.83=40.73%
The Treasury is borrowing (in our name) almost 41 cents on every dollar Duh Gubbermint is spending on the Federal level. We owe upwards of 15 trillion dollars, after decades of this behavior.
Lessee, OS has to reset his spreadsheet again. If we cut spending by 30 billion, what percentage of the national debt have we potentially shaved off?
Pull as many zeros as we can from both numbers and it looks like 1500 and 3.
3 divided by 1500=.002
Multiply by 100 to determine percentage: .2 percent. Two-tenths of one percent shaved from a debt of 15 trillion dollars.
Now, if we owe 15 trillion dollars, what's our interest payment obligation? Right now, interest rates are at an unhistorical low. Everything reverts to the mean, so let's say the day comes when the market decides it wants us to pay a nice round number, say 5% on our borrowed money, per annum.
15,000,000,000,000 times .05=750,000,000 Seven hundred fifty billion, which must be paid, lest we default. If we default, the dollar soon ceases to be recognized as a medium of exchange anywhere. Think Argentina...
What if we end up having to pay 750 billion dollars of interest on an annual budget of 3.8 trillion? That would mean 19.6% percent of the annual expenditure would be on interest payments alone. Not principal paydown, just interest. Wonder how long it would be until the market decides they'd like 8% on their money to compensate for the level of risk that 19.6% represents. Hmmm...that could get ugly, quickly.
Think Greece, Portugal, Spain, Argentina....
Gotta go, OS's laptop is smoking again!
Besides, it's bottom of the 7th, the Orioles are beating up on the Tigers 9-5. Two on, two outs, count is 1 and 2. Those are manageable, understandable numbers.
Thursday, April 7, 2011
Seven Billion Dollars Now The Issue: The Impasse Between House and Senate
OS is heading out for the day, brewing the coffee, and overhearing that the difference between Boehner and Reid is only seven billion dollars.
Seven billion dollars represents our interest obligation for ten days.
Does anyone sitting behind those desks understand the depth of the insanity represented by that statistic?
Seven billion dollars represents our interest obligation for ten days.
Does anyone sitting behind those desks understand the depth of the insanity represented by that statistic?
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