But, hey! Who's counting?
Showing posts with label Federal spending. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Federal spending. Show all posts
Tuesday, January 31, 2012
Friday, April 8, 2011
OldSouth Attempts To Understand The Math: This Week's Federal Budget Resolution Negotiations
The coverage has been breathless and constant--the pitched battle over whether Congress will reduce 2011 Federal budget spending by 60 billion dollars, or 30 billion dollars, or some number in between, or perhaps not at all, if DaPrez, Mr. Harry and Mizzzz Nancy had their way.
OS has been busy this week, trying to keep the plates of several unrelated projects spinning, enjoying the opening week of baseball season (Boston's zip-4-six??), and the opening day of the Masters. He has high hopes for young Mr. McIlroy, and Mrs. OS is a fan of Mr. Choi.
But, he has attempted to understand the math in the context of the emotionally charged language that is flooding the culture--e.g., 'If'n yuh don't agree wif me, yew is a scalawag of the worst kind.' As always, the Left is more practiced at spewing the poison, but there's lots of it going 'round this week. The Religious Right seems to want to score points as well. Somehow, a bankrupt United States, and the chaos, poverty and despair that would cause, is not an ethical issue in their minds. Sheeeeut.
So, with a bit of time off this evening, he began to review numbers, to see what is being talked about. After all, 60 billion dollars sounds like a boatload-o-money-hunney to a normal drudge like OS.
He decided to look up the amount of money intended to be spent by The Gubb'mint in FY 2011. The Budget that Our Beloved Leader proposed to Congress back in February of 2010, when the Dems controlled both houses, calls for spending $3.83 trillion and the federal deficit is forecast to be $1.56 trillion in 2010 and $1.27 trillion in 2011. Total debt is budgeted to increase from $11.9 trillion in FY2009, to $13.8 trillion in FY2010, and $15.1 trillion in FY2011.
That's a lot-o-munney, hunney!
OS had to call up a spreadsheet, and start attempting to type in that figure. He had to format cells for lots of digits and decimal points to make this exercise work.
So, sez-he/he-sez:
383, three hundred eighty three.
383,000 three hundred eighty three thousand. Let's add three zeros, multiplying it by a thousand. Sort of like using the spreadsheet as an abacus...know-whudd-ah-mean?
383,000,000. Three hundred eighty-three million. Let's add another three zeros...
383,000,000,000 Three hundred eighty-three billion. Let's multiply by 10, one zero.
3,830,000,000,000 Three trillion, eight hundred thirty billion. That's so many zeros, OS had to dink with the spreadsheet's cell formatting. (His laptop is beginning to smoke, by the way.)
Let's go back to the proposed reductions in spending of, say, $60 billion, which our friends at the NEA call 'right-wing lawmakers insisting on draconian cuts to critical services'. Dem Waskawy Repubwikans!
That figure looks like this: 60,000,000,000.
OS's poor head hurts looking at all those zeros, so he decided to begin removing equal numbers of zeros from both numbers, which would keep the relationship between the values of those two numbers constant.
So, if we remove, say, six zeros from each number, we end up with--
3,830,000 and 60,000. Looks like a small business now. Hmmm, subtract another zero on each side.
383,000 and 6000--looks like a mom-n-pop gas station numbers.
38,300 and 600, looks like a single person's numbers.
3830 and 60 -- a month's take-home and one tank of gas in the age of Obama.
So, what percentage of 3830 is 60?
60 divided by 3830 gives us: 0.015665796
Excel tells OS to multiply this by 100 to arrive at a percentage: 1.5665796345 percent.
Round to two decimals: 1.57 percent.
Now, in reality, they're only talking about cutting about 30 billion dollars, so let's divide 1.57 by 2: 0.785 percent. It appears Mr. Harry, Miz Nancy, Our Beloved Leader and the NEA consider a reduction in spending by 0.785 percent to be unthinkably draconian.
0.785 percent. That is what is being fought over. Or perhaps, what is being fought over is the idea that spending should be restrained at all. Somehow, it will all be paid for, by the rich perhaps. Or we'll just borrow the difference, and leave it for the grandchildren to pay.
Now, let's look at another ratio: If we are running a 1.56 trillion deficit on a 3.83 trillion budget, that means we're borrowing 1.56 trillion a year. What's that percentage?
1.56/3.83=40.73%
The Treasury is borrowing (in our name) almost 41 cents on every dollar Duh Gubbermint is spending on the Federal level. We owe upwards of 15 trillion dollars, after decades of this behavior.
Lessee, OS has to reset his spreadsheet again. If we cut spending by 30 billion, what percentage of the national debt have we potentially shaved off?
Pull as many zeros as we can from both numbers and it looks like 1500 and 3.
3 divided by 1500=.002
Multiply by 100 to determine percentage: .2 percent. Two-tenths of one percent shaved from a debt of 15 trillion dollars.
Now, if we owe 15 trillion dollars, what's our interest payment obligation? Right now, interest rates are at an unhistorical low. Everything reverts to the mean, so let's say the day comes when the market decides it wants us to pay a nice round number, say 5% on our borrowed money, per annum.
15,000,000,000,000 times .05=750,000,000 Seven hundred fifty billion, which must be paid, lest we default. If we default, the dollar soon ceases to be recognized as a medium of exchange anywhere. Think Argentina...
What if we end up having to pay 750 billion dollars of interest on an annual budget of 3.8 trillion? That would mean 19.6% percent of the annual expenditure would be on interest payments alone. Not principal paydown, just interest. Wonder how long it would be until the market decides they'd like 8% on their money to compensate for the level of risk that 19.6% represents. Hmmm...that could get ugly, quickly.
Think Greece, Portugal, Spain, Argentina....
Gotta go, OS's laptop is smoking again!
Besides, it's bottom of the 7th, the Orioles are beating up on the Tigers 9-5. Two on, two outs, count is 1 and 2. Those are manageable, understandable numbers.
OS has been busy this week, trying to keep the plates of several unrelated projects spinning, enjoying the opening week of baseball season (Boston's zip-4-six??), and the opening day of the Masters. He has high hopes for young Mr. McIlroy, and Mrs. OS is a fan of Mr. Choi.
But, he has attempted to understand the math in the context of the emotionally charged language that is flooding the culture--e.g., 'If'n yuh don't agree wif me, yew is a scalawag of the worst kind.' As always, the Left is more practiced at spewing the poison, but there's lots of it going 'round this week. The Religious Right seems to want to score points as well. Somehow, a bankrupt United States, and the chaos, poverty and despair that would cause, is not an ethical issue in their minds. Sheeeeut.
So, with a bit of time off this evening, he began to review numbers, to see what is being talked about. After all, 60 billion dollars sounds like a boatload-o-money-hunney to a normal drudge like OS.
He decided to look up the amount of money intended to be spent by The Gubb'mint in FY 2011. The Budget that Our Beloved Leader proposed to Congress back in February of 2010, when the Dems controlled both houses, calls for spending $3.83 trillion and the federal deficit is forecast to be $1.56 trillion in 2010 and $1.27 trillion in 2011. Total debt is budgeted to increase from $11.9 trillion in FY2009, to $13.8 trillion in FY2010, and $15.1 trillion in FY2011.
That's a lot-o-munney, hunney!
OS had to call up a spreadsheet, and start attempting to type in that figure. He had to format cells for lots of digits and decimal points to make this exercise work.
So, sez-he/he-sez:
383, three hundred eighty three.
383,000 three hundred eighty three thousand. Let's add three zeros, multiplying it by a thousand. Sort of like using the spreadsheet as an abacus...know-whudd-ah-mean?
383,000,000. Three hundred eighty-three million. Let's add another three zeros...
383,000,000,000 Three hundred eighty-three billion. Let's multiply by 10, one zero.
3,830,000,000,000 Three trillion, eight hundred thirty billion. That's so many zeros, OS had to dink with the spreadsheet's cell formatting. (His laptop is beginning to smoke, by the way.)
Let's go back to the proposed reductions in spending of, say, $60 billion, which our friends at the NEA call 'right-wing lawmakers insisting on draconian cuts to critical services'. Dem Waskawy Repubwikans!
That figure looks like this: 60,000,000,000.
OS's poor head hurts looking at all those zeros, so he decided to begin removing equal numbers of zeros from both numbers, which would keep the relationship between the values of those two numbers constant.
So, if we remove, say, six zeros from each number, we end up with--
3,830,000 and 60,000. Looks like a small business now. Hmmm, subtract another zero on each side.
383,000 and 6000--looks like a mom-n-pop gas station numbers.
38,300 and 600, looks like a single person's numbers.
3830 and 60 -- a month's take-home and one tank of gas in the age of Obama.
So, what percentage of 3830 is 60?
60 divided by 3830 gives us: 0.015665796
Excel tells OS to multiply this by 100 to arrive at a percentage: 1.5665796345 percent.
Round to two decimals: 1.57 percent.
Now, in reality, they're only talking about cutting about 30 billion dollars, so let's divide 1.57 by 2: 0.785 percent. It appears Mr. Harry, Miz Nancy, Our Beloved Leader and the NEA consider a reduction in spending by 0.785 percent to be unthinkably draconian.
0.785 percent. That is what is being fought over. Or perhaps, what is being fought over is the idea that spending should be restrained at all. Somehow, it will all be paid for, by the rich perhaps. Or we'll just borrow the difference, and leave it for the grandchildren to pay.
Now, let's look at another ratio: If we are running a 1.56 trillion deficit on a 3.83 trillion budget, that means we're borrowing 1.56 trillion a year. What's that percentage?
1.56/3.83=40.73%
The Treasury is borrowing (in our name) almost 41 cents on every dollar Duh Gubbermint is spending on the Federal level. We owe upwards of 15 trillion dollars, after decades of this behavior.
Lessee, OS has to reset his spreadsheet again. If we cut spending by 30 billion, what percentage of the national debt have we potentially shaved off?
Pull as many zeros as we can from both numbers and it looks like 1500 and 3.
3 divided by 1500=.002
Multiply by 100 to determine percentage: .2 percent. Two-tenths of one percent shaved from a debt of 15 trillion dollars.
Now, if we owe 15 trillion dollars, what's our interest payment obligation? Right now, interest rates are at an unhistorical low. Everything reverts to the mean, so let's say the day comes when the market decides it wants us to pay a nice round number, say 5% on our borrowed money, per annum.
15,000,000,000,000 times .05=750,000,000 Seven hundred fifty billion, which must be paid, lest we default. If we default, the dollar soon ceases to be recognized as a medium of exchange anywhere. Think Argentina...
What if we end up having to pay 750 billion dollars of interest on an annual budget of 3.8 trillion? That would mean 19.6% percent of the annual expenditure would be on interest payments alone. Not principal paydown, just interest. Wonder how long it would be until the market decides they'd like 8% on their money to compensate for the level of risk that 19.6% represents. Hmmm...that could get ugly, quickly.
Think Greece, Portugal, Spain, Argentina....
Gotta go, OS's laptop is smoking again!
Besides, it's bottom of the 7th, the Orioles are beating up on the Tigers 9-5. Two on, two outs, count is 1 and 2. Those are manageable, understandable numbers.
Thursday, March 17, 2011
OldSouth's One Irish Joke For The Day: Paddy And Mick Go Hunting
Great jokes often are great parables, which is why they survive the years. This one has been around quite a while, in different guises.
Paddy and Mick flew to Canada on a hunting trip. They chartered a small plane to take them into the Rockies for a week of hunting moose.
They managed to bag six moose. As they were loading the plane to return, the pilot said the plane could take only four moose.
The two lads objected strongly. "Last year we shot six. The pilot let us take them all and he had the same plane as yours."
Reluctantly, the pilot gave in and all six were loaded. The plane took off.
However, while attempting to cross some mountains even on full power the little plane couldn't handle the load and went down.
Somehow, surrounded by the moose bodies, only Paddy and Mick survived the crash.
After climbing out of the wreckage, Paddy asks Mick, "Any idea where we are, lad?"
Mick replied, "I think we're pretty close to where we crashed last year."
U.S. Federal Deficit for February 2011 is $223 billion.
The annual Federal deficit was $248 billion in 2006.
Paddy-n-Mick, ya'll.
Paddy and Mick flew to Canada on a hunting trip. They chartered a small plane to take them into the Rockies for a week of hunting moose.
They managed to bag six moose. As they were loading the plane to return, the pilot said the plane could take only four moose.
The two lads objected strongly. "Last year we shot six. The pilot let us take them all and he had the same plane as yours."
Reluctantly, the pilot gave in and all six were loaded. The plane took off.
However, while attempting to cross some mountains even on full power the little plane couldn't handle the load and went down.
Somehow, surrounded by the moose bodies, only Paddy and Mick survived the crash.
After climbing out of the wreckage, Paddy asks Mick, "Any idea where we are, lad?"
Mick replied, "I think we're pretty close to where we crashed last year."
U.S. Federal Deficit for February 2011 is $223 billion.
The annual Federal deficit was $248 billion in 2006.
Paddy-n-Mick, ya'll.
Thursday, February 17, 2011
Tuesday, February 15, 2011
Sense of Events: How deep is our debt hole?
Sense of Events: How deep is our debt hole?
Donald Sensing, at Sense of Events, has a wonderful ability to get to the point, quickly.
He shares this video with us:
Obama's proposal of 'we'll just freeze spending and it'll all be alright' is simply not credible. He knows it. Congress knows it. Congress knows that he knows it. He knows that Congress knows....etc....
HellsBells, ya'll! Not even the Washington Post is willing to drink the Kool-Aid anymore. These people never met an entitlement they didn't love, and they ain't buyin' it.
They call Himself The Punter In Chief. Oprah called Him 'The One', and the Nobel Committee award him the Peace Prize. Chris Matthews felt that famous 'thrill up my leg'...reality is beginning to set in.
He is completely out of his depth, and it is just dimly dawning upon him that he has done immense damage to this culture. Now, many contend, including OS, that this was His intent all along. He just didn't realize how shitty it would feel, and that he would be blamed, and instead of appearing to be The One, or a modern-day savior, he is on the way to joining James Buchanan and Jimmy Carter on the list of WorstPresidentsEver.
In the mid-1990s, and in the 1980's, a spending freeze+economic growth plan might have worked. But every time it was proposed, the Left and their homeboyz in the media would immediately begin the demagoguery about 'cuts', how children would starve and old people would freeze.
Well, ya'll on The Left--yah got'cher way. Economic growth has been stabbed in the liver, and expenditures and unfunded obligations are ToTheMoonAlice. The Cloward-Piven Moment approaches.
Time to let the grownups take over, and see if we can't steer this ship away from the rocks.
Donald Sensing, at Sense of Events, has a wonderful ability to get to the point, quickly.
He shares this video with us:
Obama's proposal of 'we'll just freeze spending and it'll all be alright' is simply not credible. He knows it. Congress knows it. Congress knows that he knows it. He knows that Congress knows....etc....
HellsBells, ya'll! Not even the Washington Post is willing to drink the Kool-Aid anymore. These people never met an entitlement they didn't love, and they ain't buyin' it.
They call Himself The Punter In Chief. Oprah called Him 'The One', and the Nobel Committee award him the Peace Prize. Chris Matthews felt that famous 'thrill up my leg'...reality is beginning to set in.
He is completely out of his depth, and it is just dimly dawning upon him that he has done immense damage to this culture. Now, many contend, including OS, that this was His intent all along. He just didn't realize how shitty it would feel, and that he would be blamed, and instead of appearing to be The One, or a modern-day savior, he is on the way to joining James Buchanan and Jimmy Carter on the list of WorstPresidentsEver.
In the mid-1990s, and in the 1980's, a spending freeze+economic growth plan might have worked. But every time it was proposed, the Left and their homeboyz in the media would immediately begin the demagoguery about 'cuts', how children would starve and old people would freeze.
Well, ya'll on The Left--yah got'cher way. Economic growth has been stabbed in the liver, and expenditures and unfunded obligations are ToTheMoonAlice. The Cloward-Piven Moment approaches.
Time to let the grownups take over, and see if we can't steer this ship away from the rocks.
Thursday, February 10, 2011
Well, It's A Beginning: The First Round Of Proposed Spending Cuts
The House Appropriations Committee published their proposed cuts, yesterday.
Unlike the Dems, they actually published well ahead of time, and will allow time for amendments and debate.
It's a beginning. Amongst the NannyState devotees, there will be outraged cries declaring how cruel these cuts are. They'll also scoff that the cuts are too small to matter, etc. etc.
It's a beginning. A highlights include:
Department of Treasury -$268M
Internal Revenue Service -$593M
International Trade Administration -$93M
Economic Development Assistance -$16M
Minority Business Development Agency -$2M
Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services -$96M
LIHEAP Contingency fund -$400M
Community Services Block Grant -$405M
High Speed Rail -$1B
FAA Next Gen -$234M
Amtrak -$224M
HUD Community Development Fund -$530M
Unlike the Dems, they actually published well ahead of time, and will allow time for amendments and debate.
It's a beginning. Amongst the NannyState devotees, there will be outraged cries declaring how cruel these cuts are. They'll also scoff that the cuts are too small to matter, etc. etc.
It's a beginning. A highlights include:
Department of Treasury -$268M
Internal Revenue Service -$593M
International Trade Administration -$93M
Economic Development Assistance -$16M
Minority Business Development Agency -$2M
Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services -$96M
LIHEAP Contingency fund -$400M
Community Services Block Grant -$405M
High Speed Rail -$1B
FAA Next Gen -$234M
Amtrak -$224M
HUD Community Development Fund -$530M
Friday, May 8, 2009
So, What Does One Hundred Million Dollars Really Look Like?
One hundred million dollars is a lot of money to most mere mortals.
President Obama and friends are hoping that you never get past that initial emotional reaction.
One hundred million dollars!
That's like winning the Super Lotto five times in a row!
That's three Manny Ramirez salaries--at least when's he's not imbibing in performance-enhancing drugs...
That's, that's...more Ferrari's than can be driven in a lifetime!
But what is it, in proportion to the US Federal budget?
A clever young man has given us the best demonstration of all.
Gruff old Senator Everett Dirksen once growled during a 1960's budget debate, 'A few billion here, a few billion there, and pretty soon, it adds up to real money!'
Indeed it does.
And Obama plans to exponentially expand spending.
We are looking at 50 Trillion (with a T!--that means 'thousand billion') in unfunded obligations, with Medicare, Social Security, and further entitlements. Spending already promised, already in the pipeline.
So, how much is one hundred million dollars?
Just enough to insult our intelligence.
President Obama and friends are hoping that you never get past that initial emotional reaction.
One hundred million dollars!
That's like winning the Super Lotto five times in a row!
That's three Manny Ramirez salaries--at least when's he's not imbibing in performance-enhancing drugs...
That's, that's...more Ferrari's than can be driven in a lifetime!
But what is it, in proportion to the US Federal budget?
A clever young man has given us the best demonstration of all.
Gruff old Senator Everett Dirksen once growled during a 1960's budget debate, 'A few billion here, a few billion there, and pretty soon, it adds up to real money!'
Indeed it does.
And Obama plans to exponentially expand spending.
We are looking at 50 Trillion (with a T!--that means 'thousand billion') in unfunded obligations, with Medicare, Social Security, and further entitlements. Spending already promised, already in the pipeline.
So, how much is one hundred million dollars?
Just enough to insult our intelligence.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)