OS Muses On The Senate Rule Changes: Failure, Hubris and The Removal Of Restraint

While yesterday's events seem arcane to most, the Senate rules changes will change everyone's lives. Any sense of restraint, from either extreme of the political spectrum, if not already erased, will soon vaporize. Welcome to the 1850's, deja-vue-all-over-again.

Already, Tom Harkin, smelling fresh blood in the water, is calling for the removal of all restraints on legislation as well.

OS watched the replay of Senator Levin's eulogy for the Senate last night, as he warned his enthusiastic leftist colleagues that they had just won a Pyrrhic Victory. Ni modo, hombre--a mi me no importa--seems to be the response from the left. We won, we won, we won, we won...we slam-dunked Rand Paul and Ted Cruz and any and all who would stand in our way as we get what we want. We drew blood, we can beat our chests.

Levin was telegraphing to his colleagues one simple truth: What Goes Around, Comes Around. The opposition we will face in the future will not be on the model of a Lamar Alexander, Howard Baker, or Susan Collins. An entirely new breed of cat has now entered the cat-fight, with long memories about our behavior, and a completely 'don't-give-a-flying-f*** about what Missah Harry thinks, or what the Yew Nork Times writes'. Harry's old, and the Yew Nork Times is going bankrupt, circling the drain along with the Blue States upon whom the Red States are now staging cavalry raids to cherry-pick what remains of their industrial base. One day, probably soon, the tables will be turned.

Missah Harry and Massah Obama may sense that as well. While it can still be done, let's promote our friends into the lifetime sinecure of the federal bench, the ultimate patronage job. We can pull the puppets' strings long after we've been tossed from office.

After all, all of life is about Power. Pure and simple, straight-no-chaser, 100 proof, gloves-off, raw Power. It's exhilarating, it's the ultimate drug. Hubris just isn't for Greeks, you know. Besides, we know  better than those guys. We won't fall into those traps. We've got this whole thing sussed out.

OS writes these things because he can find no other explanation for what he observes.

Normal people undertake ambitious projects throughout life: Education, Marriage, Parenthood. They create businesses, works of art, institutions such as schools and churches. They undertake science to understand how the universe operates, and out of that they create useful inventions. They enter government and public life.

Failure stalks every attempt to achieve. It is an inherent part of the process. Many ventures fail. Normal people, when aventure fails, invariably reflect upon the failure. What went wrong? At what point did things go pear-shaped? Were my assumptions wrong? Did I trust the wrong people? How much of this mess was my responsibility?

And most importantly:

What can I learn from this failure that may fuel the success of the next undertaking?

How can one describe this past year's work of the Obama administration (apart from remaining in power) as anything but massive failure? Need the litany repeat?

Benghazi.
The IRS suborned as a political enforcement arm of the Democrat Party.
The chaos and bloodletting of North Africa and Egypt.
The Syrian tragedy.
The revelation of our tapping the personal cell phones of world leaders.
Snowden.
The attempt to draw us into a civil war in Syria, and the promotion of Putin thereby.
The rise of a nuclear Iran as we stand helplessly by.
The ObamaCare 'rollout', which has burned through at least 600 million dollars, and disrupted millions of lives--and we're just on the front end of that particular adventure.
The chronic unemployment that will not respond to zero interest rate policies.
The stock market bubble roars on, while more and more citizens (and non-citizens) live on Food Stamps.

All of the above fueled and explained by a constant stream of lies from the lips of the President, which corrodes what little confidence yet remains in the office.

Normal people, when confronted with this massive sort of failure, pause and reflect. It is a function of the conscience. Obama and Company drop not a beat, and press forward to gather more power unto themselves, to enable them to undertake more of their ventures. Not a moment's reflection, not a moment's hesitation, simply a push forward to the next item on what seems to be a script, a play-book. No matter what happens, move on to the next item. If we seize enough power while we can, the failures won't matter--we'll have the power, and can stuff the record of those failures down the Memory Hole.

These are not normal people. And OS fears that another group of not normal' people may arise from the Right, or from even Farther Left. He fears we are staggering toward our next Civil War, or a dictatorship, or both. Heaven only knows what tragedies await us.

Yesterday's events will serve as an accelerator of that process, but will not be a principal cause. They were symptomatic, the inevitable result of the hubris that fuels the present regime.

Calculated Risk: Note: 7.58% (SA) and 4.27% equals 11.85%

Bill McBride, the brilliant blogger at Calculated Risk, is one of OS's heroes. He is so dispassionate, so laconic, and he knows how to do simple math so as to (as Ricky Ricardo would say..) 'splain things to us Looocey.

Today, Bill 'splains a small bit of the reality of the real economy. The economy we, who do not work on The Street or in D.C. or have Ivy League MBA's or permanent sinecures at universities or state gubbermint bureaucracies, live in. The real economy.

The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties increased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 7.58 percent of all loans outstanding as of the end of the second quarter of 2012, an increase of 18 basis points from the first quarter, but a decrease of 86 basis points from one year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey.

The delinquency rate includes loans that are at least one payment past due but does not include loans in the process of foreclosure. The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started during the second quarter was 0.96 percent, unchanged from last quarter and from one year ago. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the second quarter was 4.27 percent, down 12 basis points from the first quarter and 16 basis points lower than one year ago. The serious delinquency rate, the percentage of loans that are 90 days or more past due or in the process of foreclosure, was 7.31 percent, a decrease of 13 basis points from last quarter and a decrease of 54 basis points from one year ago. 

OK, fair enough, makes the eyes glaze over a bit. Then McBride does his simple math:

7.58% (SA) and 4.27% equals 11.85%

That is to say, 11.85% of all mortgages are in serious trouble.  That's just short of 12%.

So, OS decided to do a bit of his own simple math, remembering the days when stock quotes were reported in 'eighths'--the old traders could do math in their heads, and keep it all straight under that system. 

100 divided by 12 comes up to 8.3. As in, one in eight mortgages in the United States is in trouble.

Here, in the real economy, this is trouble. 

Official unemployment is 8.3%. Real unemployment is close to 20%, in the aggregate. That comes out to one in five.  For young black men, it may be double that. An entire generation is in danger of being lost to the streets and the justice system, because in order to have a job, a person must have basic literacy in place, basic social skills in place, some sort of marketable skill to offer the world. We have college graduates fixing coffees at Starbucks, lots of them. Fifteen-year-olds can make coffee, as sophomores in high school. Where do they go for those first jobs if those slots are filled by twenty-five-year-olds with B.A.'s?

 

Here, in the real economy, this is trouble.

Tossing Obama and his posse will be a good and necessary start to getting back on our feet. OS knows, even if we do that, and almost everything goes right as we go forward, we are probably 5-10 years away from really being back in the saddle. 

So, someone please explain to OS why Harry Reid is obsessed with Mitt's tax returns?

Seven Billion Dollars Now The Issue: The Impasse Between House and Senate

OS is heading out for the day, brewing the coffee, and overhearing that the difference between Boehner and Reid is only seven billion dollars.

Seven billion dollars represents our interest obligation for ten days.

Does anyone sitting behind those desks understand the depth of the insanity represented by that statistic?

Clobbered In The Last Election? No Worries, Just Stop The Clock! Harry Reid Declares It's 5 January 2011

Really. In the Senate, it's January 5, 2011.

After a nearly three-week absence, the Senate is back in session Tuesday in a chamber where time has ground to a halt: It's the same legislative day there that began Jan. 5.

The ruling Democrats have effectively stopped the clock for a reason: They contend that on the Senate's first day in session, its rules can be changed with just 51 votes, rather than the 67 normally needed. And the rules they are trying to change all have to do with the minority's ultimate weapon: the filibuster.

In other words, they never adjourned the previous session of the Senate!

WTF?!

Mitch McConnell notes that it appears to be one more attempt to nullify the outcome of last November's election. Like that MotherOfAllSpendingBills that Harry Reid sprang on the Senate with less than two days' notice, demanding its passage in the December lame-duck session. The whole thing was so egregious that it didn't pass the smell test for even the Democrats--or at least for the ones who have to face the voters in 2012.

For OS's readers overseas, a few simple truths must be understood about the US Democrat party, in order to understand US politics:

Words have no meaning, being simply sounds one uses to get one's way today.

Rules are for suckers, and other guys.

Only power matters.

They exist to campaign for the next election, whenever that is. If they lose, then its the fault of the great unwashed pool of voters, and the Dems have the obligation to 'adjust' the outcomes for TheGreaterGood. They just thinkin' of us, ya'll.

Trotsky would be proud.

So, here we are, on January 25, 2011. The Senate is meeting today, on January 5, 2011. And if Harry Reid gets his way, then it will still be January 5, 2011 in November of 2012.

At which point, WeTheEnemy (that great unwashed pool of voters) get to remind him of the current date and time.

Again, OS sez it: Political violence is not an option. Once the genie is out of the bottle, and blood flows, Heaven only knows what tragedies await us. NO, NO, NO!

However, this sort of blatant abuse of power, repeated again and again, as we have experienced in the past two decades, sets the stage for just such a tragedy.

OS has children, and would like to have grandchildren some day. And hopes to have a stable, free, and peaceful America for their lifetimes. Lest the darkness fall, we must keep insisting that light prevail, while we still have time.

The Reid Bend-The-Culture-Over-The-Table Omnibus Bill Appears To Be Dead. For Now.

Here's hoping the report is accurate.

Reported by National Review this evening:

Speaking now on the Senate floor, Majority Leader Harry Reid (D., Nev.) says he is “sorry and disappointed” to announce that he does not have the votes for the omnibus spending package. Instead, he will work with Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.) to draft a temporary continuing resolution to fund the government into early next year.

Reid says nine Republican senators approached him today to tell him that while they would like to see the bill passed, they could not vote for it. He did not reveal the names of the nine. A top Senate source tells National Review Online that “it looks like Harry Reid buckled under the threat of Republicans reading [the bill] aloud.”

Reid says he intends to file cloture tonight on the DREAM Act and repeal of Don’t Ask Don’t Tell, with an aim toward holding up-or-down votes on Saturday.

It's difficult to know how to begin to describe the magnitude of the outrage this bill was, how it was dropped upon the Senate with no notice, with the demand that yet another 2000-page (plus hundreds of pages of technical specs) be voted on without the chance to be read or debated. Over 1 trillion dollars. Pork projects stretching to the horizon.

The word 'reckless' comes to mind.

'Juvenile'. 'Cynical'. 'Shameless'. 'Dangerous'. 'Evil'.

It was, at heart, a legislative attempt to nullify the November election. Had it passed, Obama would have signed it in a heartbeat, rendering the new Congress in great part powerless to carry out the reforms and reductions in spending demanded by the electorate. A 60+ seat swing in the House in a mid-term is a powerful correction. Add several seats gained by conservatives in the Senate, and it is a clear indication of the mood of the electorate.

OS does not advocate violence, but he fears it may yet occur (and in this instance may have occurred), if the Administration and its fellow travelers attempt to nullify the effect of elections via the legislative process, the regulatory process, and the veto.

When people come to believe that their votes (and electoral efforts, such as donations and canvassing) are futile, cultures tend to boil over. Once the political violence genie is loosed from its captivity, things have a way of going in all manner of unexpected and tragic directions. 1861-65 should remain fresh in our minds. It is unnerving to see the scenes from Athens and London as well. We're not immune here, ya'll.

Please, for the love of God and country, we don't want to go that route. Kudos to Mitch McConnell, Tom Coburn, and so many others who stood tall this week. Shame on GOP senators like Snowe and Collins of Maine and Bennett of Utah, who would have unblinkingly voted for this tragedy. Bennett's gone with this Congress, and someone-somewhere in Maine, please challenge for those seats in the primary at next opportunity.

Even if you aren't the perfect candidate--it doesn't require a genius to stand up and vote 'NO' when ridiculous bills come up.

The Great Lame-Duck Porkulous Omnibus Push The Country Over The Cliff Budget Bill

Introduced today, Dec. 14, 2010, at 12:15 pm.

The take-it-or-leave-it, no-need-to-debate-it, bend-the-country-over-the-table, Mother-of-all-spending-bills.

Including:

$277,000 for potato pest management in Wisconsin
$246,000 for bovine tuberculosis in Michigan and Minnesota
$522,000 for cranberry and blueberry disease and breeding in New Jersey
$500,000 for oyster safety in Florida
$349,000 for swine waste management in North Carolina
$413,000 for peanut research in Alabama
$247,000 for virus free wine grapes in Washington
$208,000 beaver management in North Carolina
$94,000 for blackbird management in Louisiana
$165,000 for maple syrup research in Vermont
$235,000 for noxious weed management in Nevada
$100,000 for the Edgar Allen Poe Cottage Visitor’s Center in New York
$300,000 for the Polynesian Voyaging Society in Hawaii
$400,000 for solar parking canopies and plug-in electric stations in Kansas

And that's just one recital of a few of the items, taken from a cursory glance...

And we wonder why the world is beginning to run the hell away from our Treasury debt?

Hmm...University Of Texas Begins To Hedge Its Portfolio With Gold

This peeks above the radar from Inside Higher Ed.

News that the investment arm of the University of Texas has started buying up gold is validating the concerns of some analysts who fear high inflation and increasing U.S. debt will wreak havoc on other more commonly held endowment securities, such as bonds.

The University of Texas Investment Management Company (UTIMCO) announced last month that it would move $500 million into gold. While that constitutes just 3 percent of the $22.3 billion in assets UTIMCO controls, it’s a marked shift in strategy for a management company that had no gold in its portfolio a year ago.

(and later in the article)

Given the fact that a gold investment strategy is predicated on the idea that the dollar is declining and the nation is too deep in debt, some have described the gaga for gold trend gripping the conservative movement – see Glenn Beck – as ideologically driven.

But you don’t have to be a conservative talk show host to see the merits of UTIMCO’s position, said Sandy Leeds, a senior lecturer of finance at the University of Texas at Austin’s McCombs School of Business. Leeds was so fired up by the news of UTIMCO’s strategy that he wrote an op-ed on the subject for The Houston Chronicle, which originally reported on a public meeting where the investments were discussed.

“While unstated by UTIMCO, we should consider the possibility that they are hedging against a U.S. meltdown,” Leeds wrote.

Leed's op-ed is well worth reading.

The financial problems we face are immense. In addition to our trillion-dollar deficit, our total debt is approaching 85 percent of gross domestic product. A recent academic study by Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff suggested that a debt level above 90 percent of GDP is a tipping point that results in slower growth.

In reality, I would be ecstatic if our debt level was only 90 percent of GDP. The real issue is that we have approximately $50 trillion of unfunded liabilities - Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. This is a daunting liability. Public investors such as mutual funds, pension funds, endowments, hedge funds, foreign governments and individuals have all combined to loan the United States approximately $8.5 trillion to fund our accumulated deficits. If we wanted to be fully funded in today's dollars, we would need to issue another $50 trillion of debt.

Now, if OS may break into the local patios:

Ya'll, these are grownups who have to be in charge of the endowments of major universities, unlike the clown circus who run the White House and Congress. University of Texas existed long before this crew ever got together, and intends to be in business long after they have left to write their mutually-incriminating biographies.

These people ain't no AstroTurf, or TeaParty TeaBaggers, or Glenn Beck devotees, or secessionists, or Klan members, or any of that stuff. These are serious, sober, boring respectable people who have to make sure the alma mater is still in business for their grandchildren.

They are voting with their investment decisions, and they ain't endorsing The One, TurboTax Timmy, and Helicopter Ben, Miz Nancy and Mr. Harry, and Rahmbo. They are distancing themselves from this crowd, and trying to keep their corner of the world intact when things begin to come unwound.

No Worries, Senator Reid: You'll Win In A Walkover

Really, honest.

Those 10,000 or so people who showed up in your hometown to launch Sharron Angle's Senate campaign won't be donating to her, or paying attention to this campaign.

Since then, you know, the economy's doing soooo much better, and all the numbers released by the CBO confirm that that health-care-thangy you rammed through will save the guv'mint kajillions of dollars, not cost anybody anything, and deliver free care to everybody. And that national debt thang--some 15 trillion or so--no one's paying attention. And that little ole' oil leak that yoh' President is doing such a great job addressing, well, that'll all be patched up soon, and you can join him for the photo op in late October, cuz that's how long it's probably gonna be before BP really has that thang under control, and you can take credit for it. Everbody'll believe it was you who pulled it off.

And that 'continue to spend like a drunken sailor' thang, by calling absolutely everything an emergency...why nobody's gonna pay attention to that, neither.

They won't mind when you arrange to send hundreds of billions to Illinois, Kuhlifornia and New York, just to keep the Democrat machine propped up in those blue states. HellsBells, Senator, with 15 trillion in debt, 100 billion is just a rounding error, ain't no big thang.

And that housing and banks thang...it's all ok now. Don'chew worry your old gray head one little tiny bit, Senator, it's allll gonna be jus' fine.

All those people who turned out to get Miz Angle nominated...no worries. They just a buncha teabaggin' hicks. She's only got her husband, one press secretary, and her kitchen table to work with! She ain't nooooo problem at all. She ain't got no PR firms, or pollsters, or PACs, or union thugs, or ability to spend guv'mint money to buy no votes, none of that. She's toast.

Yew jus' go-on back to sleep now, MisterHarry. This ain't nothing to worry yoh' head about. We'll wake you up after it's all over. And, no, don'chew be taking no phone calls from that Specter clown. He don't know nuthin' 'bout this sort of thang...

Searchlight, Nevada: Harry Reid's Hometown, Or What CNN Can't Report

CNN, it is reported, claimed a few dozen protesters showed up in Searchlight, Nevada for a Tea Party event. Since that is Harry Reid's hometown, it would be embarrassing if perhaps 10,000 people were to materialize to express their opinion of the man.

Yesterday's online print story did say the event happened, but never got around to mentioning how many folks showed up.

So, in the spirit of public service, OS found a picture or two of the event. One shows the length of the caravan through the desert to Searchlight, and an overhead shot around the stage is also informative.
Really, it's tough to get one's job done when there is so much fawning over the President to do.
Jes' trahyin' to be neighborly, helpful, and all, ya'll.

No worries, Senator Reid.
No worries, Mr. President.

These people aren't motivated to actually do anything come November.

Honest. Ya'll just go on back to your offices, now. It'll all be all right.