Scoring OS's 2010 Prediction List

It's interesting reading, ruminations from a year ago. So, in fairness, here's the list, admissions of being wide of the mark, and a few more or less on the money.

The 2010 list

1. We had 140 bank failures in 2009, mostly small fry.  We'll have 200 in 2010, and some of the 'bigger fish' will be among them. Some will not be the classical Friday afternoon raid scenario, as it will be difficult to find anyone able to take over these sick elephants.  A lot of TARP money will be lost next year.

Missed on that one. Calculated Risk reported last week. The FDIC is probably finished closing banks for the year. The total was 157 failures in 2010, up from 140 failures in 2009. There are now 919 banks on the 'problem list', with total assets of some $407 billion. The big banks have paid back their TARP advances, and are back to business as usual. HellsBells, the credit-card come-ons have begun appearing in OS mailbox again. Just like old times. Deja vu all over again.

2.  FDIC will have to admit it's insolvent, that insurance fees from the banks that behaved won't be enough to rescue their drunken cousins.  Treasury and/or Fed will have to kick in a bunch more money, and there will be a major stink.

Perhaps premature on that one. FDIC hasn't hit a crisis point yet, and here's hoping they don't. OS takes no joy in predicting future pain.

3.  Ford will be making cars and money, GM will be making cars and losing money, and Chrysler will no longer be with us.  Ford will make most of its money where it always has, on the F-150 pickup truck, because working America has to use a pickup truck to get its work done, and there is a real attrition of F-150's.  You know, a real market, not the one Himself and Miss Nancy dream of.

True, true(by any sort of honest accounting standards), and thankfully a prediction that did not come true. The F-150 did lead the charge for Ford. GM flogged shares at $33, to allow Treasury to get some of its money back. They've got to get their customer base back, and hopefully not go underwater at less than $33.

4.  There have been two Democrats, Tennessee Blue-Dogs, who have announced they will not run next fall, in addition to an Alabama Democrat who has switched parties. (He won't be back, because he'll be trounced by a black conservative in the spring primary.) I predict another 10 Democrat House members will head for the hills rather than face a furious electorate. GOP and Independents will pick up a total of 25 House seats. Miss Nancy will have a real problem on her hands.

Whooodathunkit. 63 GOP seats picked up in the House, 6 picked up in the Senate. Could have been more, but Harry Reid pulled out a squeaker, and California remained true-blue. The bigger news is the hundreds upon hundreds of utterly pissed-off conservative who ran for state house and senate seats, and won. The Democrat gerrymander is about to go down in flames. The Tea Party took aim at the appropriate target, namely, the scuzzbags who run the GOP as a country club.

5. There will be a massive market correction by June 2010, and the Administration and Fed will desperately try to pump it up again, to maintain the illusion that all is well. It won't work, it will be transparent this time, and it will really piss the voters off.  We will end 2010 with Dow 7700, S&P 700. Pension funds will bleed, and local governments will go through convulsions, long overdue.

Well, there was a pullback in midsummer, but OS completely underestimated the determination of the Fed to print money come what may. There is no logic to the securities markets, and it feels like a huge bubble. OS dipped in and out, made a few bucks, and left. The bleeding in pension funds and local governments lies ahead. The StimulusGasm of 2009 allowed everyone to pretend one more year.

6.  There will be the exposure of at least one more major financial scandal the magnitude of Madoff. Someone, somewhere, will expose a specific money trail from Washington to Wall Street and back again, with specific people attached. That someone will go through hell as the machinery of government is turned against him, but in the end heads will roll. Don't know if anyone will go to jail like Bernie did.

Can u say WikiLeaks? The story hasn't broken, but it will. Wait for it, be patient.

7. Sadly, sometime this year, we will have some major loss-of-life terrorist attack in either the US or UK, or both. Obama and company are both unwilling and unable to look reality in the eye.  We will recover, but it will be tragic.  I hope to Heaven I am utterly wrong on this one.

Thank Heaven, as of this date, OS is wrong. His opinion of the Obama administration remains unchanged. The UK foiled the UPS package bomb plot. BigSis concentrated on techniques of groping passengers, and appearing to be on the job. We still have a major angel on our national shoulder, since we didn't get hit.

8. There will be a major assassination attempt staged by the Islamists, in India, Pakistan, the Emirates or Saudi Arabia. It may succeed. I hope I am wrong on this one as well.

Happy to report OS was wrong on this one.

9.  Labour will be routed in the UK general election, but not before Gordon Brown attempts to impose some sort of 'state of emergency' to prevent the election from going forward. The UK electorate will finally tire of an unelected PM and unelectable government killing their country off. We can hope.

Yep, on the money, except that Brown was too discredited by the time the election arrived to stage a crisis. Good riddance, BTW. They need to fire the EU next. Here's hoping.

10. Obama will do nothing about Iran's nukes. The Israelis will.

On the money. The software attack was a stroke of genius, the kind only the Israelis can pull off. They also just assassinated one of the Iranian wonks in charge of undoing the damage, and injured the other. Two attacks, same day. Score one for the good guys. Obama has no intention of doing anything, as he hates Israel.

11. Tiger Woods will re-emerge after his divorce deal is inked. He'll play some European tour events, accompanied by Steve his caddy, his manager, and one person tasked with the job of keeping little Tiger's pants on, tucking him alone into his bed at night. He'll play the Open at St. Andrews, will be booed by the gallery, and will miss the cut by a wide margin. He will then begin to rehab for a 2011 comeback, but the old magic will definitely be gone, even if his golf comes back. Expect the fist pump to go away.

Pretty close. He came back, much chastened, played some good golf, lost the stupid fist-pump, and began acting a bit more human. He did well at The Open, and the gallery acted with real class. If he really really really learned some life lessons from the experience, perhaps his best years are ahead. If he gets it going too quickly, and the ego and fist pump returns, he's doomed. He'll screw up again, and there will be no grace left. Golf's equivalent of Pete Rose. Let's keep a good thought for him. Life is tragic enough without that kind of tragedy playing out.

12.  Again, I hope I'm wrong, but there will be violence at the polls in some locations in November 2010.  Feelings will be running very, very high.  I'll be voting early.

Feelings ran very high. Blessedly, OS was wrong about the violence. It is a real worry for him. Once the genie of political violence is let loose in the land, events have a way of taking horrible tragic turns. We don't want to go there. Anyone within earshot jabbering about it is someone to freaking avoid. Please.

Not a bad list, and the darkest predictions did not come true, blessedly.

It's Ryder Cup Time!

Kids wait for Santa to show up every December.

OS waits for the Masters every spring, and the Ryder Cup every other fall.

It's an event that requires the winning team to play with more intelligence and selflessness than the losing team. Athletic ability is desirable, but this game is played between the ears.

The American style of golf, e.g. 'Let's just drive the stuffing out of the ball, let someone find it in the trees and then we'll figure out what to do next' won't be rewarded on this course. Ahem--Phil, Tiger, Dustin...(That link above leads to the page with the hole descriptions and flyover views. It's pretty impressive, built for this event.)

OS predicts Europe wins by 4 at least. It won't take them long, and the Sunday afternoon single pairings are always a joy to watch.

And, please! Let's not have rules officials on the course seeking their personal fifteen minutes of fame this time. Golf needs a good, happy event, after a year of public humiliations at the hands of people who really ought to know better.

Even If You Don't Follow Golf...

...do yourself a favor, and tune in to The Open this weekend.

There is no place like St. Andrews, and it feeds the soul to see the old game played on The Old Course.

The Open website carries live video and radio if your local TV doesn't broadcast.

OS could not stay awake for the opening proceedings, (3 a.m. in this time zone), but his heart was mightily cheered this morning to see that young Rory McIlroy had tied the Open record for an opening round with 63, and is three strokes clear of the field at this point. He's only twenty-one, and it is a joy to watch him play. At the other end of the age spectrum (much closer to where OS exists), to see Tom Watson par the 18th for a round of one over is also cause for cheers, and the gallery certainly gave him a lot of well-deserved love.

It's a great game, with dignity and fair play woven into the very fabric of the rules and practice. OS has a colleague with an enthusiastic grade-school daughter who has embraced the game with her whole heart. Her dad just beams when he talks about his duties as her caddy, and her growth as a young lady. He's a crack pro musician, and she studies music as well. One of his proudest moments came when she connected the dots between the two disciplines.

If OS could be King For A Day, he would arrange for every child to sing in a good choir, learn a musical instrument well, and learn to love and play golf.

Who needs LeBron, when you can have sports heroes like Rory, Phil Mickleson, Vijay Singh, and Ernie Els? The bad actors, like John Daly, get to disintegrate publicly, in both game and life, occasionally showing the old magic, as he did this morning.

Mr. Woods now lives on the bubble, and both his golf and life are under scrutiny, to see if he will choose to recover. If he blows up on the course this week, it will be a long long road back. Good wishes go his way, with the hope that his really great years lie ahead.

Chasing The Dream: CBS Plows The Ground For Golf After Tiger

It's Saturday afternoon, catching up on the work that didn't get done in the aftermath of the flood, looking for a golf tournament on the tube (Mrs. OS is a saint, enduring golf on TV as she does.)

Turning to CBS, and find a one-hour special, 'Chasing the Dream', featuring the rising generation of young golf pros like Anthony Kim and Rory McIlroy.

Someone has made recent decision to plow the ground in preparation for a PGA Tour without Tiger, or featuring a much diminished role for the former Boy Wonder for a while.

It's just bidness, after all. There are numbers to make, and bills to pay. Everyone became accustomed to Tiger showing up, being himself, and everybody carting off their own wheelbarrow of money. It worked so well for ten years, who wouldn't get fat and happy?

So, let's parade the kids who can barely shave, use handheld cameras at funny angles, no shot longer than three seconds, edit that 'grainy-film' look in back at the editing suite. Let's present them as the bright boys they are, not as legends in their own time.

Let's hope this works.

OS has mixed feelings about Mr. Woods, who has a long dark trip through the tunnel of life still ahead. Tiger showed us all what is possible, if we're willing to work hard enough. He also shows how things can go totally pear-shaped if we don't pay attention to details of life. In any case, after all the money he made for everyone around him, it seems a bit churlish to throw him completely under the bus. It can't be like the folks around him didn't approximately know what was going on in his off-hours.

As someone who has failed dramatically a time or two, and felt those wheels roll over him, OS appreciates grace--a lot.

And in honor of an athlete in the same trade who is retiring at the top of her game, with grace, class and good feelings all around, here is the transcript of Lorena Ochoa's retirement announcement.

I'm making this decision because all the elements are together. You know, to start, I always said that I wanted to play for some years, around ten years. And what I wanted to do is achieve my goals and to be the No. 1 player in the world. Retiring today or being at the top, you know, today is my anniversary for three years of being at the top in the Rolex World Rankings.

The second thing I always dreamed and I always wanted to finish here in Mexico. To be able to play my last tournament in front of my crowd, and in the moment of seeing them every day, and together to watch me playing my last tournament over here.

And third, well, finally, I just I'm ready to start a new life. You know, I just want to be a normal person. I just want to live like everyday things and be home, and be back with my family all the time that we lost in the last few years.

I'm ready to move on. You know, once you achieve your goals and you are at the top, it was good to me. But there are so many other things that I'd like to do. I'm really happy today, and I'm pleased. I'm 100% complete. It’s great news and I'm super happy.

I'm thanking everyone for their support and all the fans and for the LPGA, and people that have been watching my golf and following my career.

For Miss Ochoa, the really good stuff is just beginning, 'cuz she kept her head on straight all along the way.

Three cheers for this lovely young woman, who deserves to be role model.

Sunday Afternoon At Augusta: Reason To Cheer

It OS's ritual, and his bride indulges him, and sometimes even watches with him. She really loves him, to endure an afternoon of TV golf.

There are no cheers in sport like the cheers at Augusta; lusty, happy, enthusiastic roars ring across the course on Sunday afternoon. Some of the best television in television is CBS's coverage of Sunday afternoon in Augusta. Jim Nantz can tell the tale, and Nick Faldo knows how to explain the game from the point of view of someone who has won the event three times. The producer and director know how to create a narrative out of the slow progress of the pairs of golfers, doing things that look arcane to those who don't follow this strange sport.

Phil gets the Green Jacket this year, thankfully. A Good Guy wins, instead of the Bad Boy. He began and ended his round with 3-wood tee shots, emblematic of a hard-earned humility. His wife, battling cancer, and family were assembled to greet him, regardless of the score. It was a win, no matter what the scorecard read.

But there were a number of others who walked off 18 smiling ear to ear. Anthony Kim played the round of his young life, and beamed. Tom Watson exuded class, and greeted the cheers with his warm, wry smile. Freddie Couples, in his slippers without socks, came so close to winning, but never forgot to enjoy every moment. Lee Westwood did his country proud, hopefully will be on his best game for The Open. Sixteen-year-old Matteo Manassero, the young player to ever make the cut, won low amateur, and was sweet and gracious in his victory.

Tiger scowled, berated himself in public for not winning, didn't bother to thank the fans who cheered him on, or the tournament organizers who could have understandably let him know he was unwelcome this year. He cryptically noted he didn't know when he would play the next tournament. Even had he won by five strokes, the joyless visage would have been the same, because he hadn't won by seven.

He just doesn't Get It.

Sometimes, The Less Said, The Better: That Creepy Tiger Woods Ad

Perhaps one of the worst ideas for an ad in the history of the world:



In the few public statements and appearances young Mr. Woods has made since the Great Tiger Woods Turkey-Day Beat-Down, the message has been: Leave my family out of it! That part's private! I'm not going to talk about it, and if you do, you're a tasteless dolt.

It can be argued that the legs have just been kicked out from under that approach, by intoning the voice of Earl Woods, The-World's-Most-Famous-Dad, voiced over the mournful visage of his son.

And, to be fair, the 'this was my failure, leave my family alone' approach was actually a good one. His aging mother (who did at least as much as Earl, just less publicly), and his infant children don't need to be the object of the public's appetites. His wife needs space and time to decide what the rest of her life might look like, because it was forever altered by young Mr. Woods entering her world. She has two children to raise.

All gone.

The narcissism that fueled the self-destructive behavior is very much alive and well at TW Inc.

One of the great things about golf is that the actions of the game are played in silence. Even when words are spoken between the ropes, voices are low. It's a great life lesson.

Sometimes, the less said, the better.

While The Media Obsess About Tiger Woods...

The students of Iran put their lives on the line in opposition to the regime.

These are posts sent from Iran, they seem authentic, but of course I can't verify them up to any real journalist's standard. So readers will have to judge for themselves.

The 'Basiji' referenced appear to be para-military/private-army types in service of the regime. It's not entirely clear from my reading, but they appear to be imports from Palestine, e.g. Hezbollah personnel, not native Persians.

It's hard to know what the students are seeking long-term, if anything. But it is clear they are deeply unhappy with the current regime.

I Miss Arnie and Jack, Ben and Byron, Gary and Lee

Here's why.

David and Goliath

Congrats to Mr. Yang, winner of the PGA Championship just ended this afternoon, over Tiger Woods.

It marks the first time in fifteen occurrences that Tiger stepped onto the first tee with the lead on Sunday, and didn't win.

Mr. Yang remained patient, kept his courage, and in the process won the gallery over to his cause. He never allowed Tiger's presence to rattle him.

South Korea, and all of Asia, have a genuine hero.

We'll see him again in years to come, with a long exemption status on the PGA tour, invitations to the Masters and the Open, etc.

Here's to many more inspiring afternoons with Mr. Yang.