It's interesting reading, ruminations from a year ago. So, in fairness, here's the list, admissions of being wide of the mark, and a few more or less on the money.
The 2010 list
1. We had 140 bank failures in 2009, mostly small fry. We'll have 200 in 2010, and some of the 'bigger fish' will be among them. Some will not be the classical Friday afternoon raid scenario, as it will be difficult to find anyone able to take over these sick elephants. A lot of TARP money will be lost next year.
Missed on that one. Calculated Risk reported last week. The FDIC is probably finished closing banks for the year. The total was 157 failures in 2010, up from 140 failures in 2009. There are now 919 banks on the 'problem list', with total assets of some $407 billion. The big banks have paid back their TARP advances, and are back to business as usual. HellsBells, the credit-card come-ons have begun appearing in OS mailbox again. Just like old times. Deja vu all over again.
2. FDIC will have to admit it's insolvent, that insurance fees from the banks that behaved won't be enough to rescue their drunken cousins. Treasury and/or Fed will have to kick in a bunch more money, and there will be a major stink.
Perhaps premature on that one. FDIC hasn't hit a crisis point yet, and here's hoping they don't. OS takes no joy in predicting future pain.
3. Ford will be making cars and money, GM will be making cars and losing money, and Chrysler will no longer be with us. Ford will make most of its money where it always has, on the F-150 pickup truck, because working America has to use a pickup truck to get its work done, and there is a real attrition of F-150's. You know, a real market, not the one Himself and Miss Nancy dream of.
True, true(by any sort of honest accounting standards), and thankfully a prediction that did not come true. The F-150 did lead the charge for Ford. GM flogged shares at $33, to allow Treasury to get some of its money back. They've got to get their customer base back, and hopefully not go underwater at less than $33.
4. There have been two Democrats, Tennessee Blue-Dogs, who have announced they will not run next fall, in addition to an Alabama Democrat who has switched parties. (He won't be back, because he'll be trounced by a black conservative in the spring primary.) I predict another 10 Democrat House members will head for the hills rather than face a furious electorate. GOP and Independents will pick up a total of 25 House seats. Miss Nancy will have a real problem on her hands.
Whooodathunkit. 63 GOP seats picked up in the House, 6 picked up in the Senate. Could have been more, but Harry Reid pulled out a squeaker, and California remained true-blue. The bigger news is the hundreds upon hundreds of utterly pissed-off conservative who ran for state house and senate seats, and won. The Democrat gerrymander is about to go down in flames. The Tea Party took aim at the appropriate target, namely, the scuzzbags who run the GOP as a country club.
5. There will be a massive market correction by June 2010, and the Administration and Fed will desperately try to pump it up again, to maintain the illusion that all is well. It won't work, it will be transparent this time, and it will really piss the voters off. We will end 2010 with Dow 7700, S&P 700. Pension funds will bleed, and local governments will go through convulsions, long overdue.
Well, there was a pullback in midsummer, but OS completely underestimated the determination of the Fed to print money come what may. There is no logic to the securities markets, and it feels like a huge bubble. OS dipped in and out, made a few bucks, and left. The bleeding in pension funds and local governments lies ahead. The StimulusGasm of 2009 allowed everyone to pretend one more year.
6. There will be the exposure of at least one more major financial scandal the magnitude of Madoff. Someone, somewhere, will expose a specific money trail from Washington to Wall Street and back again, with specific people attached. That someone will go through hell as the machinery of government is turned against him, but in the end heads will roll. Don't know if anyone will go to jail like Bernie did.
Can u say WikiLeaks? The story hasn't broken, but it will. Wait for it, be patient.
7. Sadly, sometime this year, we will have some major loss-of-life terrorist attack in either the US or UK, or both. Obama and company are both unwilling and unable to look reality in the eye. We will recover, but it will be tragic. I hope to Heaven I am utterly wrong on this one.
Thank Heaven, as of this date, OS is wrong. His opinion of the Obama administration remains unchanged. The UK foiled the UPS package bomb plot. BigSis concentrated on techniques of groping passengers, and appearing to be on the job. We still have a major angel on our national shoulder, since we didn't get hit.
8. There will be a major assassination attempt staged by the Islamists, in India, Pakistan, the Emirates or Saudi Arabia. It may succeed. I hope I am wrong on this one as well.
Happy to report OS was wrong on this one.
9. Labour will be routed in the UK general election, but not before Gordon Brown attempts to impose some sort of 'state of emergency' to prevent the election from going forward. The UK electorate will finally tire of an unelected PM and unelectable government killing their country off. We can hope.
Yep, on the money, except that Brown was too discredited by the time the election arrived to stage a crisis. Good riddance, BTW. They need to fire the EU next. Here's hoping.
10. Obama will do nothing about Iran's nukes. The Israelis will.
On the money. The software attack was a stroke of genius, the kind only the Israelis can pull off. They also just assassinated one of the Iranian wonks in charge of undoing the damage, and injured the other. Two attacks, same day. Score one for the good guys. Obama has no intention of doing anything, as he hates Israel.
11. Tiger Woods will re-emerge after his divorce deal is inked. He'll play some European tour events, accompanied by Steve his caddy, his manager, and one person tasked with the job of keeping little Tiger's pants on, tucking him alone into his bed at night. He'll play the Open at St. Andrews, will be booed by the gallery, and will miss the cut by a wide margin. He will then begin to rehab for a 2011 comeback, but the old magic will definitely be gone, even if his golf comes back. Expect the fist pump to go away.
Pretty close. He came back, much chastened, played some good golf, lost the stupid fist-pump, and began acting a bit more human. He did well at The Open, and the gallery acted with real class. If he really really really learned some life lessons from the experience, perhaps his best years are ahead. If he gets it going too quickly, and the ego and fist pump returns, he's doomed. He'll screw up again, and there will be no grace left. Golf's equivalent of Pete Rose. Let's keep a good thought for him. Life is tragic enough without that kind of tragedy playing out.
12. Again, I hope I'm wrong, but there will be violence at the polls in some locations in November 2010. Feelings will be running very, very high. I'll be voting early.
Feelings ran very high. Blessedly, OS was wrong about the violence. It is a real worry for him. Once the genie of political violence is let loose in the land, events have a way of taking horrible tragic turns. We don't want to go there. Anyone within earshot jabbering about it is someone to freaking avoid. Please.
Not a bad list, and the darkest predictions did not come true, blessedly.
Showing posts with label 2010 predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2010 predictions. Show all posts
Tuesday, December 28, 2010
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
If Brown Wins, How Will The White House and MSM Explain It?
The chart tells a dramatic story.
Scott Brown was 30 points behind in November, 17 behind at the New Year.
He's polling about 10 points ahead in some polls today.
Of course, only the real one counts, the one done tomorrow.
But, if he wins, by a distinct margin, to claim the seat vacated by Ted Kennedy, what will Hopey-Changey's people say? How will they spin this?
First and foremost:
There is always an explanation, some way of making certain it is never interpreted as a rejection of Obama or his governance.
It's the racists.
It's the teabaggers.
It's Rush and the radioheads.
It's the homophobe pro-lifer fascist zealots.
It's Bush's fault(always a favorite...).
It's Martha Coakley's fault.
It's the voters' fault--they were all duped into voting for the wrong person--we must repeat the election.
It really wasn't a legal election, 'cuz a Democrat didn't win. (Therefore he can't be seated.)
If he wins big, the exodus of Democrat incumbents headed to retirement will pick up steam.
But don't worry, the White House will assure one and all, and the MSM will echo the refrain:
It has nothing to do with Obama, and if you disagree, you must obviously be a homophobe, prolifer, teabagging, radiohead, racist Bush-lover.
It's not his fault.
It's yours.
Chin-straps on. Tomorrow will likely be ugly.
Scott Brown was 30 points behind in November, 17 behind at the New Year.
He's polling about 10 points ahead in some polls today.
Of course, only the real one counts, the one done tomorrow.
But, if he wins, by a distinct margin, to claim the seat vacated by Ted Kennedy, what will Hopey-Changey's people say? How will they spin this?
First and foremost:
There is always an explanation, some way of making certain it is never interpreted as a rejection of Obama or his governance.
It's the racists.
It's the teabaggers.
It's Rush and the radioheads.
It's the homophobe pro-lifer fascist zealots.
It's Bush's fault(always a favorite...).
It's Martha Coakley's fault.
It's the voters' fault--they were all duped into voting for the wrong person--we must repeat the election.
It really wasn't a legal election, 'cuz a Democrat didn't win. (Therefore he can't be seated.)
If he wins big, the exodus of Democrat incumbents headed to retirement will pick up steam.
But don't worry, the White House will assure one and all, and the MSM will echo the refrain:
It has nothing to do with Obama, and if you disagree, you must obviously be a homophobe, prolifer, teabagging, radiohead, racist Bush-lover.
It's not his fault.
It's yours.
Chin-straps on. Tomorrow will likely be ugly.
Wednesday, January 6, 2010
We're Making Progress! Dodd And Dorgan Hit The Road
News this morning that Chris Dodd Democrat of Connecticut, and Byron Dorgan of North Dakota announced this morning that they will not seek re-election.
Reality is settling in on the Senators who followed Himself over the cliff. The voters back home are not amused.
Chris Dodd, especially, would be facing questions about why he took a sweetheart deal from Countrywide Mortgage, one of the most notorious of the subprime operators. The Wall Street Journal covered his 'disclosure' of the deal last February, in which reporters were allowed to view, but not copy or carry away any portion of, what he purported to be the documents attached to the sweetheart loan.
'Heck, we'd all love the kind of courtesy that would have saved Mr. Dodd $75,000 over the life of the two loans he refinanced to the tune of $800,000, according to an analysis by Portfolio magazine. The savings came from rock-bottom interest rates and a free "float-down" -- the right to borrow at a lower rate if interest rates fall before you've closed on the loan.'
The shame of it all is that the questions won't be coming from a federal prosecutor--Prez HopeyChangey's Justice Department has his back on that problem, so long as he votes the party line until retirement.
As for Senator Dorgan--well, North Dakota is a huge piece of real estate with not many people. And the people that do live there are a hearty, self reliant lot. On a state-wide level, they avoided many of the sins of the past twenty/thirty years, and have come through the Great Recession relatively intact, with oil drilling now underway in many parts of the state. The good Senator would have great trouble justifying his support of the banksters and an administration that would love nothing more than to shutter the entire oil industry. Look for a Republican to replace him.
And, speaking of Republicans to replace someone in the Senate, there is still time to send a few shekels in the direction of Scott Brown, the GOP candidate who appears to be closing on the presumed Democrat heir to Chappaquiddick Teddy's seat.
If Brown wins, Prez HopeyChangey loses his sixtieth vote for the health-care monstrosity, and cap-and-trade, and the next round of bail-outs, and the next stimulus, and the confirmation of Helicopter Ben, etc. etc... Senator Brown could be a game changer, at least until the Dems finish suborning GOP Senator Snowe of Maine.
Even if he comes close, Teddy's heir will have to be looking over her shoulder at an electorate that could easily turn on her. Every little bit helps!
The Republican National Committee has been, let us say, lukewarm in its participation and support of Mr. Brown. His win or very strong showing could help encourage a housecleaning in that corrupt organization, as well.
The special election in Massachusetts is January 19.
Reality is settling in on the Senators who followed Himself over the cliff. The voters back home are not amused.
Chris Dodd, especially, would be facing questions about why he took a sweetheart deal from Countrywide Mortgage, one of the most notorious of the subprime operators. The Wall Street Journal covered his 'disclosure' of the deal last February, in which reporters were allowed to view, but not copy or carry away any portion of, what he purported to be the documents attached to the sweetheart loan.
'Heck, we'd all love the kind of courtesy that would have saved Mr. Dodd $75,000 over the life of the two loans he refinanced to the tune of $800,000, according to an analysis by Portfolio magazine. The savings came from rock-bottom interest rates and a free "float-down" -- the right to borrow at a lower rate if interest rates fall before you've closed on the loan.'
The shame of it all is that the questions won't be coming from a federal prosecutor--Prez HopeyChangey's Justice Department has his back on that problem, so long as he votes the party line until retirement.
As for Senator Dorgan--well, North Dakota is a huge piece of real estate with not many people. And the people that do live there are a hearty, self reliant lot. On a state-wide level, they avoided many of the sins of the past twenty/thirty years, and have come through the Great Recession relatively intact, with oil drilling now underway in many parts of the state. The good Senator would have great trouble justifying his support of the banksters and an administration that would love nothing more than to shutter the entire oil industry. Look for a Republican to replace him.
And, speaking of Republicans to replace someone in the Senate, there is still time to send a few shekels in the direction of Scott Brown, the GOP candidate who appears to be closing on the presumed Democrat heir to Chappaquiddick Teddy's seat.
If Brown wins, Prez HopeyChangey loses his sixtieth vote for the health-care monstrosity, and cap-and-trade, and the next round of bail-outs, and the next stimulus, and the confirmation of Helicopter Ben, etc. etc... Senator Brown could be a game changer, at least until the Dems finish suborning GOP Senator Snowe of Maine.
Even if he comes close, Teddy's heir will have to be looking over her shoulder at an electorate that could easily turn on her. Every little bit helps!
The Republican National Committee has been, let us say, lukewarm in its participation and support of Mr. Brown. His win or very strong showing could help encourage a housecleaning in that corrupt organization, as well.
The special election in Massachusetts is January 19.
Saturday, January 2, 2010
OldSouth's 2010 List
It's a disease, I know. A exercise in narcissistic self-indulgence. A harmless diversion as well, since sitting here in my armchair, I control almost none of the events listed below. But, having read Karl Denninger's retrospective of his 2009 predictions, and he admitted scoring only 56%, I figure, 'What the hey, anybody can try this!'
So, Here we go, for 2010:
1. We had 140 bank failures in 2009, mostly small fry. We'll have 200 in 2010, and some of the 'bigger fish' will be among them. Some will not be the classical Friday afternoon raid scenario, as it will be difficult to find anyone able to take over these sick elephants. A lot of TARP money will be lost next year.
2. FDIC will have to admit it's insolvent, that insurance fees from the banks that behaved won't be enough to rescue their drunken cousins. Treasury and/or Fed will have to kick in a bunch more money, and there will be a major stink.
3. Ford will be making cars and money, GM will be making cars and losing money, and Chrysler will no longer be with us. Ford will make most of its money where it always has, on the F-150 pickup truck, because working America has to use a pickup truck to get its work done, and there is a real attrition of F-150's. You know, a real market, not the one Himself and Miss Nancy dream of.
4. There have been two Democrats, Tennessee Blue-Dogs, who have announced they will not run next fall, in addition to an Alabama Democrat who has switched parties. (He won't be back, because he'll be trounced by a black conservative in the spring primary.) I predict another 10 Democrat House members will head for the hills rather than face a furious electorate. GOP and Independents will pick up a total of 25 House seats. Miss Nancy will have a real problem on her hands.
5. There will be a massive market correction by June 2010, and the Administration and Fed will desperately try to pump it up again, to maintain the illusion that all is well. It won't work, it will be transparent this time, and it will really piss the voters off. We will end 2010 with Dow 7700, S&P 700. Pension funds will bleed, and local governments will go through convulsions, long overdue.
6. There will be the exposure of at least one more major financial scandal the magnitude of Madoff. Someone, somewhere, will expose a specific money trail from Washington to Wall Street and back again, with specific people attached. That someone will go through hell as the machinery of government is turned against him, but in the end heads will roll. Don't know if anyone will go to jail like Bernie did.
7. Sadly, sometime this year, we will have some major loss-of-life terrorist attack in either the US or UK, or both. Obama and company are both unwilling and unable to look reality in the eye. We will recover, but it will be tragic. I hope to Heaven I am utterly wrong on this one.
8. There will be a major assassination attempt staged by the Islamists, in India, Pakistan, the Emirates or Saudi Arabia. It may succeed. I hope I am wrong on this one as well.
9. Labour will be routed in the UK general election, but not before Gordon Brown attempts to impose some sort of 'state of emergency' to prevent the election from going forward. The UK electorate will finally tire of an unelected PM and unelectable government killing their country off. We can hope.
10. Obama will do nothing about Iran's nukes. The Israelis will.
11. Tiger Woods will re-emerge after his divorce deal is inked. He'll play some European tour events, accompanied by Steve his caddy, his manager, and one person tasked with the job of keeping little Tiger's pants on, tucking him alone into his bed at night. He'll play the Open at St. Andrews, will be booed by the gallery, and will miss the cut by a wide margin. He will then begin to rehab for a 2011 comeback, but the old magic will definitely be gone, even if his golf comes back. Expect the fist pump to go away.
12. Again, I hope I'm wrong, but there will be violence at the polls in some locations in November 2010. Feelings will be running very, very high. I'll be voting early.
Good wishes to all, and God preserve the United States of America.
So, Here we go, for 2010:
1. We had 140 bank failures in 2009, mostly small fry. We'll have 200 in 2010, and some of the 'bigger fish' will be among them. Some will not be the classical Friday afternoon raid scenario, as it will be difficult to find anyone able to take over these sick elephants. A lot of TARP money will be lost next year.
2. FDIC will have to admit it's insolvent, that insurance fees from the banks that behaved won't be enough to rescue their drunken cousins. Treasury and/or Fed will have to kick in a bunch more money, and there will be a major stink.
3. Ford will be making cars and money, GM will be making cars and losing money, and Chrysler will no longer be with us. Ford will make most of its money where it always has, on the F-150 pickup truck, because working America has to use a pickup truck to get its work done, and there is a real attrition of F-150's. You know, a real market, not the one Himself and Miss Nancy dream of.
4. There have been two Democrats, Tennessee Blue-Dogs, who have announced they will not run next fall, in addition to an Alabama Democrat who has switched parties. (He won't be back, because he'll be trounced by a black conservative in the spring primary.) I predict another 10 Democrat House members will head for the hills rather than face a furious electorate. GOP and Independents will pick up a total of 25 House seats. Miss Nancy will have a real problem on her hands.
5. There will be a massive market correction by June 2010, and the Administration and Fed will desperately try to pump it up again, to maintain the illusion that all is well. It won't work, it will be transparent this time, and it will really piss the voters off. We will end 2010 with Dow 7700, S&P 700. Pension funds will bleed, and local governments will go through convulsions, long overdue.
6. There will be the exposure of at least one more major financial scandal the magnitude of Madoff. Someone, somewhere, will expose a specific money trail from Washington to Wall Street and back again, with specific people attached. That someone will go through hell as the machinery of government is turned against him, but in the end heads will roll. Don't know if anyone will go to jail like Bernie did.
7. Sadly, sometime this year, we will have some major loss-of-life terrorist attack in either the US or UK, or both. Obama and company are both unwilling and unable to look reality in the eye. We will recover, but it will be tragic. I hope to Heaven I am utterly wrong on this one.
8. There will be a major assassination attempt staged by the Islamists, in India, Pakistan, the Emirates or Saudi Arabia. It may succeed. I hope I am wrong on this one as well.
9. Labour will be routed in the UK general election, but not before Gordon Brown attempts to impose some sort of 'state of emergency' to prevent the election from going forward. The UK electorate will finally tire of an unelected PM and unelectable government killing their country off. We can hope.
10. Obama will do nothing about Iran's nukes. The Israelis will.
11. Tiger Woods will re-emerge after his divorce deal is inked. He'll play some European tour events, accompanied by Steve his caddy, his manager, and one person tasked with the job of keeping little Tiger's pants on, tucking him alone into his bed at night. He'll play the Open at St. Andrews, will be booed by the gallery, and will miss the cut by a wide margin. He will then begin to rehab for a 2011 comeback, but the old magic will definitely be gone, even if his golf comes back. Expect the fist pump to go away.
12. Again, I hope I'm wrong, but there will be violence at the polls in some locations in November 2010. Feelings will be running very, very high. I'll be voting early.
Good wishes to all, and God preserve the United States of America.
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