...you believe in the Great Pumpkin.
Chin-straps on, ya'll. This could get eventful.
Robert Peston provides a more droll summation of the conundrum:
The maths goes like this. After a recently approved expansion, the EFSF has €440bn to disburse. But €133bn of this has already been allocated to propping up Greece, Ireland and Portugal. And as I mentioned yesterday, yet more EFSF money may have to go to Greece to prevent it defaulting.
Turn away now
So right now there is just under €290bn left in the EFSF kitty. Which could go down to less than €250bn if Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy draw on it to recapitalise their respective banks.
If you don't want to be scared, turn away now.
Italy needs to borrow €250bn next year just to refinance its existing debts that are coming due for repayment - and not including the new money it will need to borrow.
Or to put it another way, if Italy is shut out of markets - which is not impossible - then the EFSF in its current form will not have even enough money to tide Italy over, let alone keep alive any other eurozone governments that run into difficulties.
Which is why it is so vitally important, as I've been banging on about, for the resources of the EFSF to be massively increased.
And that is why the failure of eurozone governments, and Germany and France in particular, to agree on how to expand the EFSF is so troubling.
So as you can presumably now see, a full-scale eurozone financial crisis can't be averted by any individual initiative but requires a whole package of remedial measures, of which strengthening the banks and enlarging the bailout fund are the two most crucial.
It requires, in other words, a level of cooperation that would be difficult to achieve amongst nations ruled by saints.
Monday, October 24, 2011
Sunday, October 23, 2011
And Now, A Word From Our Friendly Despot To The South, Mourning Ghaddafi's 'Martyrdom'
The chaotic images, with glimpses of the bloodied and dazed old man, sensing that he has run through his last ally, in the hands of those who despise him, and with just minutes to live, have flashed across the screens of the world repeatedly. It was a real-world re-enactment of the final minutes of Richard the Third, with the defeated king pleading for a horse to escape the inevitable: 'A horse! A horse! My kingdom for a horse!' As if, by that point, he had a kingdom to grant.
Not everyone, naturally, welcomes such news. The Russians bleated a protest about the illegality of it all. They were stone silent in 1988 when Mohamar sent his agent to blow up a PanAm flight with hundreds of innocents aboard, but OS digresses...
On a hunch, OS looked up references in the Venuezuelan press to the week's events, and he was not disappointed. Chavez, Ghaddafi's home-boy, issued a vigorous condemnation of his buddy's demise, translated below by Google.
One has to wonder how well Hugo is sleeping these days, as he contemplates these images. He can keep the Gulfstream fueled, but there are fewer places to land with his buddy Muammar no longer available.
Not everyone, naturally, welcomes such news. The Russians bleated a protest about the illegality of it all. They were stone silent in 1988 when Mohamar sent his agent to blow up a PanAm flight with hundreds of innocents aboard, but OS digresses...
On a hunch, OS looked up references in the Venuezuelan press to the week's events, and he was not disappointed. Chavez, Ghaddafi's home-boy, issued a vigorous condemnation of his buddy's demise, translated below by Google.
Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez said on Thursday, counter to the majority of opinions around the world, Muammar Gaddafi's death was an "outrage" to life and said the ousted leader will be remembered as a Libyan "martyr. "
Gaddafi was killed by Libyan fighters he called "rats" for injuries suffered, some apparently after his capture at the Battle of Sirte, his hometown and last bastion of support.
Chavez, who on Thursday claimed to have overcome cancer that was detected four months ago, maintained a friendly relationship with the Libyan leader characterized by his military background, leftist economic ideas, antagonistic relations with the United States and membership in OPEC.
"A Gaddafi was murdered, is an outrage is more to life (...) remember him as a fighter, a revolutionary and good, as a martyr," Chavez said in the western state of Tachira, where he went to thank a picture of Christ for his speedy recovery.
"This story is just beginning in Libya because there's a village, no dignity, rule yankee (United States) can not dominate this world," said the president.
Gaddafi was overthrown by rebel forces on 23 August, a week before the 42 th anniversary of the coup that brought him to power in 1969.
Gaddafi's death itself became perhaps the most dramatic since the riots of spring that have toppled Arab rulers in neighboring Tunisia and Egypt and threatening to the leaders of Syria and Yemen.
One has to wonder how well Hugo is sleeping these days, as he contemplates these images. He can keep the Gulfstream fueled, but there are fewer places to land with his buddy Muammar no longer available.
Wednesday, October 19, 2011
Please, Rick Perry, Go Back To Texas And Leave Us Alone
OS has played the night owl tonight--too much coffee, too much writing and the mind still buzzes. CNN is carrying the debate from Las Vegas.
Rick Perry has no business outside of Texas. Shrill, arrogant, angry, insufferable, bickering, alternately going for the jugular and running for cover, taking his venom out on Romney, mainly.
In other words, a horse's ass. Not anyone who should be allowed near the White House.
Go home, Rick.
Stay home.
Take Michelle Bachmann with you...holy cow...
Rick Perry has no business outside of Texas. Shrill, arrogant, angry, insufferable, bickering, alternately going for the jugular and running for cover, taking his venom out on Romney, mainly.
In other words, a horse's ass. Not anyone who should be allowed near the White House.
Go home, Rick.
Stay home.
Take Michelle Bachmann with you...holy cow...
Sunday, October 16, 2011
Why OS Misses Margaret Thatcher, In Less Than Ninety Seconds
This gem from PMQ's--in which The Iron Lady slays Labour--declaring 'they have no competence on money', and battling against any encroachment of the EU upon British sovereignity.
Her words were prophetic. Had she been heeded, we would not be witnessing Europe coming apart at the economic seams.
Where is her successor? Cameron is a failure and a fraud, and we need a strong Great Britain as never before.
Daniel Hannan, step forward. Please.
Her words were prophetic. Had she been heeded, we would not be witnessing Europe coming apart at the economic seams.
Where is her successor? Cameron is a failure and a fraud, and we need a strong Great Britain as never before.
Daniel Hannan, step forward. Please.
Herman Cain's 9-9-9: Denninger Does Math, OS Does Brunch
There is an increasing public conversation about Herman Cain's proposal for a radical restructuring of the US Tax Code, known as 9-9-9: 9% personal rate and corporate rate, 9% capital gains rate, 9% national sales tax.
The reaction to Cain ranges from the dismissive to the hysterical, but Denninger discusses the math.
To be sure, this gent gets wound up about everything, but get past that, and he makes sense, because he does know how to do math.
OS thinks this approach holds much promise, if coupled with dramatic reductions in government expenditure.
And, on a visceral level: OS loves his country, and knows that it takes money to run it. That's why we should levy taxes--to raise money to run the country. The present tax code is so completely Byzantine that when OS signs on the line above the phrase 'Under penalty of perjury, etc.', he honestly does not know with complete certainty whether the return is truly correct or no. All he can do is make his best effort and hope. It eats up days of productive time each year, and creates huges worries.
President Cain could sign 9-9-9 into law, and OS would cheer. Every time OS has money arrive, he can multiply the income by .9, and send that much in to Uncle Sam.
A one page tax-return is all that would be required.
If 9-9-9 isn't enough, make it 10-10-10, or 12-12-12. Just take our money, spend it wisely, and leave us alone otherwise. We'll all prosper thereby, as OS was relating to his young friend the RestaurantOwner, over brunch this morning...
RestaurantOwner employs twelve people, and has other business interests as well. The Federal gubbmint is beating him around the ears financially, while proclaiming 'it's all about job creation, yadda-yadda-yadda.' RestaurantOwner is attracted to Cain as well, because it will allow him to work and expand his business, and have time for his wife and family.
Increasingly, OS thinks Cain laps the field of the other candidates. His ideas are long overdue. We're headed over the cliff unless we change direction.
The reaction to Cain ranges from the dismissive to the hysterical, but Denninger discusses the math.
To be sure, this gent gets wound up about everything, but get past that, and he makes sense, because he does know how to do math.
OS thinks this approach holds much promise, if coupled with dramatic reductions in government expenditure.
And, on a visceral level: OS loves his country, and knows that it takes money to run it. That's why we should levy taxes--to raise money to run the country. The present tax code is so completely Byzantine that when OS signs on the line above the phrase 'Under penalty of perjury, etc.', he honestly does not know with complete certainty whether the return is truly correct or no. All he can do is make his best effort and hope. It eats up days of productive time each year, and creates huges worries.
President Cain could sign 9-9-9 into law, and OS would cheer. Every time OS has money arrive, he can multiply the income by .9, and send that much in to Uncle Sam.
A one page tax-return is all that would be required.
If 9-9-9 isn't enough, make it 10-10-10, or 12-12-12. Just take our money, spend it wisely, and leave us alone otherwise. We'll all prosper thereby, as OS was relating to his young friend the RestaurantOwner, over brunch this morning...
RestaurantOwner employs twelve people, and has other business interests as well. The Federal gubbmint is beating him around the ears financially, while proclaiming 'it's all about job creation, yadda-yadda-yadda.' RestaurantOwner is attracted to Cain as well, because it will allow him to work and expand his business, and have time for his wife and family.
Increasingly, OS thinks Cain laps the field of the other candidates. His ideas are long overdue. We're headed over the cliff unless we change direction.
Friday, October 14, 2011
US Boots On The Ground In Uganda: Isn't This How Vietnam Got Going?
W. T. F.???
Obama is committing troops to chasing down a war-lord in the interior of Africa. But, don't worry, it's just 100 'advisors', no worries.
President Barack Obama is sending about 100 U.S. troops to Africa to help hunt down the leaders of the notoriously violent Lord's Resistance Army in and around Uganda.
"I have authorized a small number of combat-equipped U.S. forces to deploy to central Africa to provide assistance to regional forces that are working toward the removal of Joseph Kony from the battlefield," Obama said in letter sent Friday to House Speaker John Boehner and Daniel Inouye, the president pro tempore of the Senate. Kony is the head of the Lord's Resistance Army.
U.S. military personnel advising regional forces working to target Kony and other senior leaders will not engage Kony's forces "unless necessary for self-defense," Obama said.
"I believe that deploying these U.S. armed forces furthers U.S. national security interests and foreign policy and will be a significant contribution toward counter-LRA efforts in central Africa."
One hundred troops on the ground in Central Africa requires naval support, air support, signals support, intelligence support, resupply by helicopter, vehicles, medical team, on and on it goes--just to keep the one hundred fed, protected, and able to do some sort of work in pursuance of a mission hundreds of miles from anywhere.
Isn't Uganda a former British colony? Isn't this their bailiwick, since they would know the country, the culture, the terrain, the people much better than a hundred SEALS or Rangers dropped in by chopper?
Where did this nonsense come from? This sort of move has to be planned ahead, which probably means we've had boots on the ground, in secret, for some months now.
Yes, the warlord in question is a brutal, horrible, bad actor. Does this justify us putting troops into Uganda? Saddam Hussein was a small-time Stalin, and OS remembers The Left howling that this did not justify our involvement.
Will the streets now fill with indignant peace marchers over the opening of yet another war by TheWinnerOfTheNobelPeacePrize?
Anyone got an answer?
(Sound of crickets chirping...)
Obama is committing troops to chasing down a war-lord in the interior of Africa. But, don't worry, it's just 100 'advisors', no worries.
President Barack Obama is sending about 100 U.S. troops to Africa to help hunt down the leaders of the notoriously violent Lord's Resistance Army in and around Uganda.
"I have authorized a small number of combat-equipped U.S. forces to deploy to central Africa to provide assistance to regional forces that are working toward the removal of Joseph Kony from the battlefield," Obama said in letter sent Friday to House Speaker John Boehner and Daniel Inouye, the president pro tempore of the Senate. Kony is the head of the Lord's Resistance Army.
U.S. military personnel advising regional forces working to target Kony and other senior leaders will not engage Kony's forces "unless necessary for self-defense," Obama said.
"I believe that deploying these U.S. armed forces furthers U.S. national security interests and foreign policy and will be a significant contribution toward counter-LRA efforts in central Africa."
One hundred troops on the ground in Central Africa requires naval support, air support, signals support, intelligence support, resupply by helicopter, vehicles, medical team, on and on it goes--just to keep the one hundred fed, protected, and able to do some sort of work in pursuance of a mission hundreds of miles from anywhere.
Isn't Uganda a former British colony? Isn't this their bailiwick, since they would know the country, the culture, the terrain, the people much better than a hundred SEALS or Rangers dropped in by chopper?
Where did this nonsense come from? This sort of move has to be planned ahead, which probably means we've had boots on the ground, in secret, for some months now.
Yes, the warlord in question is a brutal, horrible, bad actor. Does this justify us putting troops into Uganda? Saddam Hussein was a small-time Stalin, and OS remembers The Left howling that this did not justify our involvement.
Will the streets now fill with indignant peace marchers over the opening of yet another war by TheWinnerOfTheNobelPeacePrize?
Anyone got an answer?
(Sound of crickets chirping...)
Uncertain As To Which Percentile I Belong To
A blog by a thirteen-year old has attracted a lot of attention, and the responses have been varied, from vitriol to adulation.
She creates her own responses to the Occupy Wall Street folks, writes them on a legal pad, posts them, and waits for the fur to fly. And it does.
OS emailed her as well, but in the interests of time, publishes his thoughts here.
I’m not certain which percentile I belong to, the 1% or the 99% or the 53%. I do not like crowds, so I’m not a candidate for attendance at anyone’s rally.
I don’t think I can ‘let the hatred flow’, although I do understand your sentiments. It is frustrating to work as hard as you do, and see people marching, demanding that your earnings be seized from your family and given to them. It may be time to think your response through just a bit. When you're thirteen, everything is concrete, nothing is nuanced. Believe me, these lessons will come later. In the meantime, a few thoughts to share with you.
I am so grateful to live here, in America. On its worst days it beats places like Zimbabwe and Poland, Venezuela and Cuba (on their best days) to pieces.
I have been poor here, and prosperous, and prosperous is better. It’s a potty little life, but my dear bride and I love it, even though it feels like all we do is work in order to have it. Only in America (and a few other places still) is this possible, and America is the best of the lot, still.
I am so grateful for my family, my church, my little town, my state, my friends, my work, my health, my hobbies, all of them imperfect and very modest. We drive old cars, and are grateful for our mechanic. I am grateful for the books and music and mutts and kitties that grace our little house. I am grateful we live in a society that allows people to gather in places like Wall Street, bang drums and act silly without fear of being put in a train to a camp far away. I am grateful we have a Constitution, and work to keep it in place with my votes and contributions, even though it means silly stuff happens from time to time.
I have seen friends struggle, and friends of our children struggle as well, and it is difficult to watch. None of them are hippies, I assure you. They did not create the lunacy that brought everything crashing down. I can’t call them names because they got caught in the downdraft.
Perhaps you should rethink doing this as well, just saying.
God bless.
She creates her own responses to the Occupy Wall Street folks, writes them on a legal pad, posts them, and waits for the fur to fly. And it does.
OS emailed her as well, but in the interests of time, publishes his thoughts here.
I’m not certain which percentile I belong to, the 1% or the 99% or the 53%. I do not like crowds, so I’m not a candidate for attendance at anyone’s rally.
I don’t think I can ‘let the hatred flow’, although I do understand your sentiments. It is frustrating to work as hard as you do, and see people marching, demanding that your earnings be seized from your family and given to them. It may be time to think your response through just a bit. When you're thirteen, everything is concrete, nothing is nuanced. Believe me, these lessons will come later. In the meantime, a few thoughts to share with you.
I am so grateful to live here, in America. On its worst days it beats places like Zimbabwe and Poland, Venezuela and Cuba (on their best days) to pieces.
I have been poor here, and prosperous, and prosperous is better. It’s a potty little life, but my dear bride and I love it, even though it feels like all we do is work in order to have it. Only in America (and a few other places still) is this possible, and America is the best of the lot, still.
I am so grateful for my family, my church, my little town, my state, my friends, my work, my health, my hobbies, all of them imperfect and very modest. We drive old cars, and are grateful for our mechanic. I am grateful for the books and music and mutts and kitties that grace our little house. I am grateful we live in a society that allows people to gather in places like Wall Street, bang drums and act silly without fear of being put in a train to a camp far away. I am grateful we have a Constitution, and work to keep it in place with my votes and contributions, even though it means silly stuff happens from time to time.
I have seen friends struggle, and friends of our children struggle as well, and it is difficult to watch. None of them are hippies, I assure you. They did not create the lunacy that brought everything crashing down. I can’t call them names because they got caught in the downdraft.
Perhaps you should rethink doing this as well, just saying.
God bless.
Thursday, October 13, 2011
Happy Birthday, Margaret Thatcher!
Classy, courageous, patriotic, fearless, eloquent.
Oh that we had fifty more of her for our time.
Oh that we had fifty more of her for our time.
Hank Williams 'Keep The Change': An Object Lesson For TheGreatAndGood
...that lesson being, 'Don't screw with someone like Hank Jr., who has a large and loyal audience, deep pockets, a good business team, the ability to write good songs quickly, and access to recording studios. He'll kick you in the behonkus. Every time.'
Far from harming Paris, Tennessee's most famous citizen, the brouhaha stirred up by Fox News and ESPN has put Hank's career on afterburners.
Whew, lawdy--do not tick this man off!
Far from harming Paris, Tennessee's most famous citizen, the brouhaha stirred up by Fox News and ESPN has put Hank's career on afterburners.
Whew, lawdy--do not tick this man off!
Wednesday, October 12, 2011
October 12, 2011--Little Shortages Here, Firesale Prices There...
OS is in the midst of several deadlines, so he hasn't had time to think, much less write, anything he feels is worth any of his loyal readers.
But, anecdotes here and there are instructive regarding where we seem to be just now.
A routine visit to the mechanic yesterday, oil change and service for Mrs. OS's auto. The mechanic (CamShaftBob) is a small-shop guy, has cared for the fleet for years, old-school. OS drove his pickup truck over for the transport of the second driver home, and was chatting with CamShatBob, who spotted the old truck with its recently installed set of tires and mused--'I hope those tires last you a long time on that truck, the last set ran 60,000 miles, and I can't get any more for you. They stopped making them.'
Late last week, listening in on an NPR program discussing shortages of medicines reported by hospitals, including some chemotherapy treatments.
Earlier this year, chatting with the vet about arthritis treatment for OS's venerable old dog, and was told the pharmaceutical that has worked so well is now out of manufacture. OS bought up the practice's entire inventory on the spot. The vet reported that his staff spends more time each month attempting to keep medicines stocked than ever before.
Don't know if it's a huge pattern, but shortages seem to be appearing here and there, in unexpected places. And some prices are beginning to spike, like milk, bottled water, bread.
On the other hand, merchandise shows up at Marshall's, a secondary retailer of last year's LatestAndGreatest that OS would never expect to see, at prices that are profoundly discounted. Coldwater Creek and Chico's are pushing merch on sale to Mrs. OS at deep-deep-deep discount, free shipping, and not last season's items, either.
It's like the hands reaching across the table of the market are having a hard time locating one another...
Again, not a 'global view', but something seems afoot.
But, anecdotes here and there are instructive regarding where we seem to be just now.
A routine visit to the mechanic yesterday, oil change and service for Mrs. OS's auto. The mechanic (CamShaftBob) is a small-shop guy, has cared for the fleet for years, old-school. OS drove his pickup truck over for the transport of the second driver home, and was chatting with CamShatBob, who spotted the old truck with its recently installed set of tires and mused--'I hope those tires last you a long time on that truck, the last set ran 60,000 miles, and I can't get any more for you. They stopped making them.'
Late last week, listening in on an NPR program discussing shortages of medicines reported by hospitals, including some chemotherapy treatments.
Earlier this year, chatting with the vet about arthritis treatment for OS's venerable old dog, and was told the pharmaceutical that has worked so well is now out of manufacture. OS bought up the practice's entire inventory on the spot. The vet reported that his staff spends more time each month attempting to keep medicines stocked than ever before.
Don't know if it's a huge pattern, but shortages seem to be appearing here and there, in unexpected places. And some prices are beginning to spike, like milk, bottled water, bread.
On the other hand, merchandise shows up at Marshall's, a secondary retailer of last year's LatestAndGreatest that OS would never expect to see, at prices that are profoundly discounted. Coldwater Creek and Chico's are pushing merch on sale to Mrs. OS at deep-deep-deep discount, free shipping, and not last season's items, either.
It's like the hands reaching across the table of the market are having a hard time locating one another...
Again, not a 'global view', but something seems afoot.
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