It's a disease, I know. A exercise in narcissistic self-indulgence. A harmless diversion as well, since sitting here in my armchair, I control almost none of the events listed below. But, having read Karl Denninger's retrospective of his 2009 predictions, and he admitted scoring only 56%, I figure, 'What the hey, anybody can try this!'
So, Here we go, for 2010:
1. We had 140 bank failures in 2009, mostly small fry. We'll have 200 in 2010, and some of the 'bigger fish' will be among them. Some will not be the classical Friday afternoon raid scenario, as it will be difficult to find anyone able to take over these sick elephants. A lot of TARP money will be lost next year.
2. FDIC will have to admit it's insolvent, that insurance fees from the banks that behaved won't be enough to rescue their drunken cousins. Treasury and/or Fed will have to kick in a bunch more money, and there will be a major stink.
3. Ford will be making cars and money, GM will be making cars and losing money, and Chrysler will no longer be with us. Ford will make most of its money where it always has, on the F-150 pickup truck, because working America has to use a pickup truck to get its work done, and there is a real attrition of F-150's. You know, a real market, not the one Himself and Miss Nancy dream of.
4. There have been two Democrats, Tennessee Blue-Dogs, who have announced they will not run next fall, in addition to an Alabama Democrat who has switched parties. (He won't be back, because he'll be trounced by a black conservative in the spring primary.) I predict another 10 Democrat House members will head for the hills rather than face a furious electorate. GOP and Independents will pick up a total of 25 House seats. Miss Nancy will have a real problem on her hands.
5. There will be a massive market correction by June 2010, and the Administration and Fed will desperately try to pump it up again, to maintain the illusion that all is well. It won't work, it will be transparent this time, and it will really piss the voters off. We will end 2010 with Dow 7700, S&P 700. Pension funds will bleed, and local governments will go through convulsions, long overdue.
6. There will be the exposure of at least one more major financial scandal the magnitude of Madoff. Someone, somewhere, will expose a specific money trail from Washington to Wall Street and back again, with specific people attached. That someone will go through hell as the machinery of government is turned against him, but in the end heads will roll. Don't know if anyone will go to jail like Bernie did.
7. Sadly, sometime this year, we will have some major loss-of-life terrorist attack in either the US or UK, or both. Obama and company are both unwilling and unable to look reality in the eye. We will recover, but it will be tragic. I hope to Heaven I am utterly wrong on this one.
8. There will be a major assassination attempt staged by the Islamists, in India, Pakistan, the Emirates or Saudi Arabia. It may succeed. I hope I am wrong on this one as well.
9. Labour will be routed in the UK general election, but not before Gordon Brown attempts to impose some sort of 'state of emergency' to prevent the election from going forward. The UK electorate will finally tire of an unelected PM and unelectable government killing their country off. We can hope.
10. Obama will do nothing about Iran's nukes. The Israelis will.
11. Tiger Woods will re-emerge after his divorce deal is inked. He'll play some European tour events, accompanied by Steve his caddy, his manager, and one person tasked with the job of keeping little Tiger's pants on, tucking him alone into his bed at night. He'll play the Open at St. Andrews, will be booed by the gallery, and will miss the cut by a wide margin. He will then begin to rehab for a 2011 comeback, but the old magic will definitely be gone, even if his golf comes back. Expect the fist pump to go away.
12. Again, I hope I'm wrong, but there will be violence at the polls in some locations in November 2010. Feelings will be running very, very high. I'll be voting early.
Good wishes to all, and God preserve the United States of America.
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