It's a disease, I know. A exercise in narcissistic self-indulgence. A harmless diversion as well, since sitting here in my armchair, I control almost none of the events listed below. But, having read Karl Denninger's retrospective of his 2009 predictions, and he admitted scoring only 56%, I figure, 'What the hey, anybody can try this!'
So, Here we go, for 2010:
1. We had 140 bank failures in 2009, mostly small fry. We'll have 200 in 2010, and some of the 'bigger fish' will be among them. Some will not be the classical Friday afternoon raid scenario, as it will be difficult to find anyone able to take over these sick elephants. A lot of TARP money will be lost next year.
2. FDIC will have to admit it's insolvent, that insurance fees from the banks that behaved won't be enough to rescue their drunken cousins. Treasury and/or Fed will have to kick in a bunch more money, and there will be a major stink.
3. Ford will be making cars and money, GM will be making cars and losing money, and Chrysler will no longer be with us. Ford will make most of its money where it always has, on the F-150 pickup truck, because working America has to use a pickup truck to get its work done, and there is a real attrition of F-150's. You know, a real market, not the one Himself and Miss Nancy dream of.
4. There have been two Democrats, Tennessee Blue-Dogs, who have announced they will not run next fall, in addition to an Alabama Democrat who has switched parties. (He won't be back, because he'll be trounced by a black conservative in the spring primary.) I predict another 10 Democrat House members will head for the hills rather than face a furious electorate. GOP and Independents will pick up a total of 25 House seats. Miss Nancy will have a real problem on her hands.
5. There will be a massive market correction by June 2010, and the Administration and Fed will desperately try to pump it up again, to maintain the illusion that all is well. It won't work, it will be transparent this time, and it will really piss the voters off. We will end 2010 with Dow 7700, S&P 700. Pension funds will bleed, and local governments will go through convulsions, long overdue.
6. There will be the exposure of at least one more major financial scandal the magnitude of Madoff. Someone, somewhere, will expose a specific money trail from Washington to Wall Street and back again, with specific people attached. That someone will go through hell as the machinery of government is turned against him, but in the end heads will roll. Don't know if anyone will go to jail like Bernie did.
7. Sadly, sometime this year, we will have some major loss-of-life terrorist attack in either the US or UK, or both. Obama and company are both unwilling and unable to look reality in the eye. We will recover, but it will be tragic. I hope to Heaven I am utterly wrong on this one.
8. There will be a major assassination attempt staged by the Islamists, in India, Pakistan, the Emirates or Saudi Arabia. It may succeed. I hope I am wrong on this one as well.
9. Labour will be routed in the UK general election, but not before Gordon Brown attempts to impose some sort of 'state of emergency' to prevent the election from going forward. The UK electorate will finally tire of an unelected PM and unelectable government killing their country off. We can hope.
10. Obama will do nothing about Iran's nukes. The Israelis will.
11. Tiger Woods will re-emerge after his divorce deal is inked. He'll play some European tour events, accompanied by Steve his caddy, his manager, and one person tasked with the job of keeping little Tiger's pants on, tucking him alone into his bed at night. He'll play the Open at St. Andrews, will be booed by the gallery, and will miss the cut by a wide margin. He will then begin to rehab for a 2011 comeback, but the old magic will definitely be gone, even if his golf comes back. Expect the fist pump to go away.
12. Again, I hope I'm wrong, but there will be violence at the polls in some locations in November 2010. Feelings will be running very, very high. I'll be voting early.
Good wishes to all, and God preserve the United States of America.
Saturday, January 2, 2010
Wednesday, December 30, 2009
Words of Wisdom to Close Out 2009, Or Any Other Year, For That Matter
Cassandra Goldman of 'A Letter to the Times' lends real perspective, and merits a few minutes of our time.
By the way, OldSouth has learned a bunch of these lessons the hard way as well. Especially items 5, 9, 11, 12, and most especially 16... 13, 14, and 18 also are high in the running.
To quote the country song: Don't Ask Me How I Know
THINGS I HAVE WASTED A LOT OF TIME AND ENERGY LEARNING THE HARD WAY
By the way, OldSouth has learned a bunch of these lessons the hard way as well. Especially items 5, 9, 11, 12, and most especially 16... 13, 14, and 18 also are high in the running.
To quote the country song: Don't Ask Me How I Know
THINGS I HAVE WASTED A LOT OF TIME AND ENERGY LEARNING THE HARD WAY
December 1, 2009 by cassandragoldman
In which I reveal far too much about the folly of my youth.
1. Marry someone of your own class and background. Yes, I know that your DNA and his DNA have identified each other as an excellent fit, and consequently have ordered your hormones and his hormones to make beautiful music together. This will not help you five years down the road when you are having twenty trivial, insoluble and increasingly acrimonious arguments a day about things like whether paper towels make acceptable napkins or if the fact that you laughed three times during an episode of Friends is sufficient reason that you should endure an hour of the show every single week. The old joke is right: male and female is opposite enough.
2. When people say that in relationships, the most important thing they look for is “a sense of humor”, what they really mean is not that they want someone who has one, but someone who has the same kind as theirs. Two incompatible senses of humor cannot peacefully coexist under one roof.
3. Do not study occultism. Even if there is anything to it – and I think that there is a little – it is not enough to repay any significant time investment. The only exception is if you intend to make a career of telling other people about your useless but hard-won knowledge. It worked for Crowley and Leek. The market is pretty small, though; LaVey spent his last couple of decades on welfare.
4. Traditional notions of the differences between men and women exist because they are accurate. There are a very few people who are significantly gender atypical. If you are one of them, your atypicality will manifest itself with no effort on your part. If you are not, you will spend decades trying to wipe out your natural inclinations and at the end they will still be there. It wastes your time and annoys the pig. Invest your time in an endeavour more likely to succeed, such as completely eradicating dandelions from your lawn.
5. Without wishing to discourage anyone from cultivating qualities such as honesty, integrity, intelligence, and so on, I regret to inform you that unless you also acquire the skills of making a good first impression and displaying the shibboleths that will convince the people around you that you are of their tribe, very few people will ever discover that you have the former. Sure, beings with large brains “should” be able to dispense with all that. Convince the other six billion people on this planet, not merely to intellectually agree with this premise but also to act upon it, and then we can stop pretending to like the same bands as our buddies. (Note: most people will claim that they are above such petty signals. They are not.)
6. Ayn Rand was one of the great minds of history. She did not, however, have the whole story about anything. It just seems that way because today’s so-called “schools” and “colleges” and the MSM have filled themselves with so much poppycock and so well concealed the existence of most of history’s greatest minds (I did not even hear the name “Edmund Burke” until I was in my thirties) that when we encounter the one who they couldn’t cover up, due to those pesky best-selling novels, she seems to be the only person in history who ever made any sense.
7. Do not try to be an atheist. In recent years there has been a spate of books showing that belief in God comes, essentially, pre-installed on our hard drives. (Oddly, many people take this as proof that the belief is incorrect. Do they consider it impossible that the Creator would create us with the means of sensing Him?) Very few people are really capable of disbelieving; we’re just not wired for it. Most of those who claim not to believe actually spend a lot of time and energy trying to convince themselves that God does not exist. And since this disbelief is unnatural to humans, it tends to do nasty things to one’s temperament. Admit that He’s there and get on with your life.
8. While we’re on that subject, organized religion is, in fact, a good thing. If you want, you can say otherwise between the ages of 15 and 21; it will impress other people who are also between the ages of 15 and 21. After that, oh good grief read a history book. There’s way more to “organized religion” than the Inquisition. A lot of people much smarter than you have spent many centuries building up the organized religions. That these organizations have lasted so long is a pretty good indication that they’re on to something.
9. People who are mean in trivial little ways are probably also going to be mean in big important ways. If they only use their moral code in emergencies, it’s going to be rusty and unreliable.
10. Don’t eat too many carbohydrates. Limit your sugar and caffeine. Don’t try to limit your fat intake. (See Gary Taubes for why.)
11. If someone lies to you, or rewrites the history the two of you share, run. No matter how sincere and reassuring the talk the two of you have is, he (or she) will do it again.
12. Don’t try to rescue people, except from literal physical danger. People who beg you to “save” them are actually just hoping you’ll give them some company in the pits.
13. The fact that you have never fit in does not automatically confer virtue upon others who also have never fit in. They may be perfectly nice but awkward persons like yourself, but it is statistically more likely that they are speed freaks who are on the dole in between paying gigs of marginal respectability. Such people can be extraordinarily charming if you are not superficial enough or sensible enough to flee them on sight. (See #5; those instincts are so deeply ingrained for good reasons.) It is how they survive.
14. Don’t go to a therapist, and especially don’t let them mess with your biochemistry with medications (unless you are hallucinating or genuinely close to killing yourself or someone else). For one thing, psychologists and psychiatrists have spent years having their heads intensively crammed with mountains of the most absurd nonsense. For another, they go into that field in the first place because they are more screwed up than you will ever be and are trying to figure out why.
15. Smart people are not necessarily more ethical than stupid people. There is limited correlation, because higher intelligence goes with a greater future time orientation, so smart people count consequences more, but a lot of the time smart people just figure out sneakier ways to harm others.
16. Never assume that anyone else has the same sense of honor and fair play that you do. Don’t put yourself at the mercy of anyone else’s ethics. Odds are, they don’t have any.
17. Free love is neither.
18. That which does not kill you will not necessarily make you stronger. Just as likely, it’ll soften you up so that whatever comes next will kill you. Bear in mind that the man who originated that fine-sounding quotation ended his days in a lunatic asylum.
19. Do not attempt to tell any of this to people who have not already figured it out for themselves.
1. Marry someone of your own class and background. Yes, I know that your DNA and his DNA have identified each other as an excellent fit, and consequently have ordered your hormones and his hormones to make beautiful music together. This will not help you five years down the road when you are having twenty trivial, insoluble and increasingly acrimonious arguments a day about things like whether paper towels make acceptable napkins or if the fact that you laughed three times during an episode of Friends is sufficient reason that you should endure an hour of the show every single week. The old joke is right: male and female is opposite enough.
2. When people say that in relationships, the most important thing they look for is “a sense of humor”, what they really mean is not that they want someone who has one, but someone who has the same kind as theirs. Two incompatible senses of humor cannot peacefully coexist under one roof.
3. Do not study occultism. Even if there is anything to it – and I think that there is a little – it is not enough to repay any significant time investment. The only exception is if you intend to make a career of telling other people about your useless but hard-won knowledge. It worked for Crowley and Leek. The market is pretty small, though; LaVey spent his last couple of decades on welfare.
4. Traditional notions of the differences between men and women exist because they are accurate. There are a very few people who are significantly gender atypical. If you are one of them, your atypicality will manifest itself with no effort on your part. If you are not, you will spend decades trying to wipe out your natural inclinations and at the end they will still be there. It wastes your time and annoys the pig. Invest your time in an endeavour more likely to succeed, such as completely eradicating dandelions from your lawn.
5. Without wishing to discourage anyone from cultivating qualities such as honesty, integrity, intelligence, and so on, I regret to inform you that unless you also acquire the skills of making a good first impression and displaying the shibboleths that will convince the people around you that you are of their tribe, very few people will ever discover that you have the former. Sure, beings with large brains “should” be able to dispense with all that. Convince the other six billion people on this planet, not merely to intellectually agree with this premise but also to act upon it, and then we can stop pretending to like the same bands as our buddies. (Note: most people will claim that they are above such petty signals. They are not.)
6. Ayn Rand was one of the great minds of history. She did not, however, have the whole story about anything. It just seems that way because today’s so-called “schools” and “colleges” and the MSM have filled themselves with so much poppycock and so well concealed the existence of most of history’s greatest minds (I did not even hear the name “Edmund Burke” until I was in my thirties) that when we encounter the one who they couldn’t cover up, due to those pesky best-selling novels, she seems to be the only person in history who ever made any sense.
7. Do not try to be an atheist. In recent years there has been a spate of books showing that belief in God comes, essentially, pre-installed on our hard drives. (Oddly, many people take this as proof that the belief is incorrect. Do they consider it impossible that the Creator would create us with the means of sensing Him?) Very few people are really capable of disbelieving; we’re just not wired for it. Most of those who claim not to believe actually spend a lot of time and energy trying to convince themselves that God does not exist. And since this disbelief is unnatural to humans, it tends to do nasty things to one’s temperament. Admit that He’s there and get on with your life.
8. While we’re on that subject, organized religion is, in fact, a good thing. If you want, you can say otherwise between the ages of 15 and 21; it will impress other people who are also between the ages of 15 and 21. After that, oh good grief read a history book. There’s way more to “organized religion” than the Inquisition. A lot of people much smarter than you have spent many centuries building up the organized religions. That these organizations have lasted so long is a pretty good indication that they’re on to something.
9. People who are mean in trivial little ways are probably also going to be mean in big important ways. If they only use their moral code in emergencies, it’s going to be rusty and unreliable.
10. Don’t eat too many carbohydrates. Limit your sugar and caffeine. Don’t try to limit your fat intake. (See Gary Taubes for why.)
11. If someone lies to you, or rewrites the history the two of you share, run. No matter how sincere and reassuring the talk the two of you have is, he (or she) will do it again.
12. Don’t try to rescue people, except from literal physical danger. People who beg you to “save” them are actually just hoping you’ll give them some company in the pits.
13. The fact that you have never fit in does not automatically confer virtue upon others who also have never fit in. They may be perfectly nice but awkward persons like yourself, but it is statistically more likely that they are speed freaks who are on the dole in between paying gigs of marginal respectability. Such people can be extraordinarily charming if you are not superficial enough or sensible enough to flee them on sight. (See #5; those instincts are so deeply ingrained for good reasons.) It is how they survive.
14. Don’t go to a therapist, and especially don’t let them mess with your biochemistry with medications (unless you are hallucinating or genuinely close to killing yourself or someone else). For one thing, psychologists and psychiatrists have spent years having their heads intensively crammed with mountains of the most absurd nonsense. For another, they go into that field in the first place because they are more screwed up than you will ever be and are trying to figure out why.
15. Smart people are not necessarily more ethical than stupid people. There is limited correlation, because higher intelligence goes with a greater future time orientation, so smart people count consequences more, but a lot of the time smart people just figure out sneakier ways to harm others.
16. Never assume that anyone else has the same sense of honor and fair play that you do. Don’t put yourself at the mercy of anyone else’s ethics. Odds are, they don’t have any.
17. Free love is neither.
18. That which does not kill you will not necessarily make you stronger. Just as likely, it’ll soften you up so that whatever comes next will kill you. Bear in mind that the man who originated that fine-sounding quotation ended his days in a lunatic asylum.
19. Do not attempt to tell any of this to people who have not already figured it out for themselves.
Thursday, December 17, 2009
And The US Doesn't Crack Down On The Mexican Border Because?...
Does Congress need any more convincing proof that illegal immigration from Mexico is a very dangerous phenomenon?
If Congress wants to pay for job creation via public works projects--there is a fence that needs to be finished.
Four And Counting
Michael Barone opines on the departure of the first four Democrat members of Congress, Dennis Moore (Kansas 3), John Tanner (Tennessee 8), Brian Baird (Washington 3) and Bart Gordon (Tennessee 6).
He's much kinder than most should be...
It will be interesting to see if the remaining Honorable Members exit in an orderly fashion, or if the stampede begins in earnest early next year.
He's much kinder than most should be...
It will be interesting to see if the remaining Honorable Members exit in an orderly fashion, or if the stampede begins in earnest early next year.
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
The Tale of Detroit--A Cultural Post-Mortem
With news that Detroit's unemployment rate may now be nearing 50%, I hope this will provide an opportunity for reflection.
Simply, how did this happen? If Detroit were a deceased party on the coroner's cold slab, what would the examination reveal?
What confluence of decisions taken and not taken on the ground in this city, combined with events outside of local control, created this debacle?
What was it about the culture of Detroit, the assumptions everyone lived with, that created such tragedy?
Time Magazine made an attempt of sorts in March of this year, with the unemployment rated listed at 13%.
Are we replicating those conditions in other parts of the country? In our own neck of the woods? In our own businesses and families?
This is no time to gloat. It is a time to ponder the past, the present, and the future.
It is time to look in the mirror, all of us, one person at a time, to learn from this tragedy.
Simply, how did this happen? If Detroit were a deceased party on the coroner's cold slab, what would the examination reveal?
What confluence of decisions taken and not taken on the ground in this city, combined with events outside of local control, created this debacle?
What was it about the culture of Detroit, the assumptions everyone lived with, that created such tragedy?
Time Magazine made an attempt of sorts in March of this year, with the unemployment rated listed at 13%.
Are we replicating those conditions in other parts of the country? In our own neck of the woods? In our own businesses and families?
This is no time to gloat. It is a time to ponder the past, the present, and the future.
It is time to look in the mirror, all of us, one person at a time, to learn from this tragedy.
The Retailers Have Blinked
The Wall Street Journal wondered out loud on the 10th of December who would blink first: the retailer or the consumer.
It's the 15th, and the retailers have blinked.
Nieman Marcus
Kohl's
Macy's
Coldwater Creek
Sears
Toys-R-Us
If you're in the mood to shop, there's plenty of inventory, and parking.
Of course, if you wait until Monday, there will still be plenty of parking, and the inventory will still be plentiful.
And cheaper.
It's the 15th, and the retailers have blinked.
Nieman Marcus
Kohl's
Macy's
Coldwater Creek
Sears
Toys-R-Us
If you're in the mood to shop, there's plenty of inventory, and parking.
Of course, if you wait until Monday, there will still be plenty of parking, and the inventory will still be plentiful.
And cheaper.
Another TN Democrat Congressman Flees 2010
Joining John Tanner in the rush for the exits, Bart Gordon looked at a district that had grudgingly returned him to office while otherwise voting overwhelmingly Republican, both houses of the Tennessee legislature solidly in Republican hands, thousands of extremely upset (and motivated) voters who greeted him at his town hall meetings, and the sure knowledge that the wheels are coming off the Obama administration.
He decided to get out while the going was good.
We're making progress here! Gone is one more creepy guy who tells everyone back in the district just what a conservative man of the people he is, and otherwise generally does what Miss Nancy orders him to do, like voting for climate-change legislation, bail-outs, and any other mischief that gets sent to his desk.
Next!
He decided to get out while the going was good.
We're making progress here! Gone is one more creepy guy who tells everyone back in the district just what a conservative man of the people he is, and otherwise generally does what Miss Nancy orders him to do, like voting for climate-change legislation, bail-outs, and any other mischief that gets sent to his desk.
Next!
Monday, December 14, 2009
But On The Other Hand...
Pat Buchanan chronicles the destruction of City University of New York, once a gateway for the best and brightest of modest means.
In D.C., nearly half of all black and Latino students drop out. Of those who graduate, nearly half are reading and doing math at seventh-, eighth- and ninth-grade levels. D.C. academic achievement ranks 51st, last in the U.S.
Yet last week came a report from New York that makes D.C look like M.I.T. Some 200 students, in their first math class at City University of New York, were tested on their basic math skills. Ninety percent could not do basic algebra. One-third could not convert a decimal into a fraction.
If this was a representative sampling, nine in 10 CUNY students not only do not belong in college, they do not qualify for their high school diplomas. As for that third who can't do decimals and fractions, they should not have been allowed into high school until they could do sixth-grade math.
On the other hand:
The good news imbedded in all this bad news is...
A very well-prepared young person is a joy to admissions committees and academic faculties.
Maths, English, Languages.
English, Maths, Languages,
Languages, English, Maths.
Need to hear it again, Moms and Dads and kids?
Now, get back to work...the world needs competent people, recession or no.
Governor Palin Wins A Round
Hats off to the Governor for not letting a Hollywood gasbag get away with his BS.
He's not likely to try it again...and you notice, she did her recitation from memory!
The Nippert Gift To Cincinnati
In an overwhelmingly generous and unexpected gift, 98-year-old Louise Nippert has placed $85 million of capital underneath the performing arts organizations that have in great part defined Cincinnati as a city.
A deep love of classical music prompted arts patron and philanthropist Louise Nippert to announce a gift of $85 million on Thursday to preserve music at the highest possible quality in Greater Cincinnati.
The Louise Dieterle Nippert Musical Arts Fund will help maintain the Cincinnati Symphony Orchestra as a major, full-time professional orchestra. It also will allow Cincinnati Opera to continue a 90-year collaboration with the Cincinnati Symphony in its pit, and allow dancers to pirouette to live music at Cincinnati Ballet well into the future. It is the largest single gift by an individual to a Cincinnati arts organization and one of the two or three largest ever to a U.S. symphony orchestra.
A classically trained singer who was a soloist in Mahler's Symphony No. 4 with the Cincinnati Symphony in 1957, Nippert has shunned the limelight as a philanthropist. In 1995, she told The Enquirer that her motivation behind charitable contributions was simple: "Giving is enough - you see how it affects everything, and you don't have to sit back and pat yourself on the back."
Did you read that last sentence? 'Giving is enough...'
Giving is enough. No need for publicity, fanfare, the public giving of alms.
Green Shoots Award Finalist, not only for the size, location and timing of the gift, but primarily for the attitude of the donor.
Giving is enough.
A deep love of classical music prompted arts patron and philanthropist Louise Nippert to announce a gift of $85 million on Thursday to preserve music at the highest possible quality in Greater Cincinnati.
The Louise Dieterle Nippert Musical Arts Fund will help maintain the Cincinnati Symphony Orchestra as a major, full-time professional orchestra. It also will allow Cincinnati Opera to continue a 90-year collaboration with the Cincinnati Symphony in its pit, and allow dancers to pirouette to live music at Cincinnati Ballet well into the future. It is the largest single gift by an individual to a Cincinnati arts organization and one of the two or three largest ever to a U.S. symphony orchestra.
A classically trained singer who was a soloist in Mahler's Symphony No. 4 with the Cincinnati Symphony in 1957, Nippert has shunned the limelight as a philanthropist. In 1995, she told The Enquirer that her motivation behind charitable contributions was simple: "Giving is enough - you see how it affects everything, and you don't have to sit back and pat yourself on the back."
Did you read that last sentence? 'Giving is enough...'
Giving is enough. No need for publicity, fanfare, the public giving of alms.
Green Shoots Award Finalist, not only for the size, location and timing of the gift, but primarily for the attitude of the donor.
Giving is enough.
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