OldSouth's 2011 Prediction List

It's an illness, admittedly.

OS did own up to his misjudgements from a year ago, though.


Last year, he spent too much time wonking about the economy. There are better heads for that than his, like Calculated Risk, who is able to speak dispassionately.

So, for 2011, OS will try to look ahead at the culture that shapes and foreshadows the economy.

1. The Grammys will be held in 2011. No one will care, audience share will shrink.

2. The North Koreans will attempt to pick a war, and the US and China will be left to defuse the mess. Until the next time.

3. Several US orchestras, ballet companies, museums, etc., will fold, or come within a whisker of folding. The impact of Zimbabwe Ben's money printing will truly hit home. Endowment funds used to operate from a rough calculation that they could draw 5% of assets as income, and still preserve and modestly grow the fund. With T-bills well below that rate, usable income has cratered from that source, just as the need for charitable donations to keep social services alive has grown dramatically. The donor base has also shrunk, and will take a long time to rebuild, as the economy takes whatever shape it assumes from 2012 onward.

4. The November 2010 elections were only Round 1 between Obama's followers and a large, resurgently conservative/libertarian proportion of the United States. Anyone who thinks that Himself has seen the light of day is sadly mistaken. The gloves will come off at some point 2011, and the serious public trashing and private harassment of people like Paul Ryan will begin. Paul Ryan will be the first target, since he will become a new committee chair, and begin saying 'no' to the kids when they ask for the credit card.

5. The persecution of Christians in Muslim nations will become even more aggressive. Obama will see nothing, say nothing, do nothing. People will wonder why, and come to their own dark conclusions.

6. When the new EPA rules hit, enforcing cap-n-trade outside of congressional approval, and the electric bills skyrocket, there will be hell to pay, just in time for 2012.

7. Given the revolving door between the White House and Wall Street, a major financial scandal will reveal itself. What is unknown is whether it will matter to anyone, given how morally numb we have become.

8. School systems and local governments will arrive at the point where there is no more road down which the proverbial can may be kicked. There will be no bail-out money being helicoptered in from D.C. We will see a lot of stories about gnashing of teeth at the local level.

Enough already. Let's enjoy the new year, especially if we live on this side of 'the pond'. We are blessed beyond description, even with our challenges.