Saturday, January 1, 2011

OldSouth's 2011 Prediction List

It's an illness, admittedly.

OS did own up to his misjudgements from a year ago, though.


Last year, he spent too much time wonking about the economy. There are better heads for that than his, like Calculated Risk, who is able to speak dispassionately.

So, for 2011, OS will try to look ahead at the culture that shapes and foreshadows the economy.

1. The Grammys will be held in 2011. No one will care, audience share will shrink.

2. The North Koreans will attempt to pick a war, and the US and China will be left to defuse the mess. Until the next time.

3. Several US orchestras, ballet companies, museums, etc., will fold, or come within a whisker of folding. The impact of Zimbabwe Ben's money printing will truly hit home. Endowment funds used to operate from a rough calculation that they could draw 5% of assets as income, and still preserve and modestly grow the fund. With T-bills well below that rate, usable income has cratered from that source, just as the need for charitable donations to keep social services alive has grown dramatically. The donor base has also shrunk, and will take a long time to rebuild, as the economy takes whatever shape it assumes from 2012 onward.

4. The November 2010 elections were only Round 1 between Obama's followers and a large, resurgently conservative/libertarian proportion of the United States. Anyone who thinks that Himself has seen the light of day is sadly mistaken. The gloves will come off at some point 2011, and the serious public trashing and private harassment of people like Paul Ryan will begin. Paul Ryan will be the first target, since he will become a new committee chair, and begin saying 'no' to the kids when they ask for the credit card.

5. The persecution of Christians in Muslim nations will become even more aggressive. Obama will see nothing, say nothing, do nothing. People will wonder why, and come to their own dark conclusions.

6. When the new EPA rules hit, enforcing cap-n-trade outside of congressional approval, and the electric bills skyrocket, there will be hell to pay, just in time for 2012.

7. Given the revolving door between the White House and Wall Street, a major financial scandal will reveal itself. What is unknown is whether it will matter to anyone, given how morally numb we have become.

8. School systems and local governments will arrive at the point where there is no more road down which the proverbial can may be kicked. There will be no bail-out money being helicoptered in from D.C. We will see a lot of stories about gnashing of teeth at the local level.

Enough already. Let's enjoy the new year, especially if we live on this side of 'the pond'. We are blessed beyond description, even with our challenges.

OldSouth's GreenShoots Award For 2010

In the non-stop flow of venality, stupidity, hatred, bigotry, religious zealotry, poverty, and cultural cheesiness that seems to define so much of life in 2010, there are some real heroes, some people and institutions that work in ways large and small to transform the world around them. They apply large doses of imagination and perspiration to the situation at hand, and great things happen, even if not lionized by the world at large. HellBells y'all--the Oprah Winfrey Network (apt acronym OWN) is about to launch! We gots'ta pay attention to Oprah!

So, here we have OS's finalists:

Geert Wilders, for standing tall and saying things that need to be heard, even at the risk of being jailed for simply saying them.

The Acton Institute, which reminds us that only free and virtuous societies can prosper, and that Christianity is the fount of that virtue. Also something that needs saying, even at the risk of being ridiculed.

Alexandra Reau, a Michigan teenage entrepreneur who took a half-acre of the family's property, had her dad plow it for a garden, and set herself up in a tidy little business of growing and selling produce for her neighbors.

You go, girl!!

MIT engineers, who have created oil-spill-eating bots with technology at hand and a lot of ingenuity. They're cheap to build and operate, can run 24/7/365, and they work! Shhhhh! Don't let the gubbermint know! They'll ban them, for all the reasons listed above. They need failure, not success, to stay on their game. If there are solutions to oil spills, then there are few reasons to keep banning oil drilling, and continuing to impoverish the Gulf Coast of the United States.

Kaziah Hancock, the Utah artist who comforts families of fallen soldiers with portraits of the loved and lost. Words fail. If you view only one link, see this one.

And the 2010 GreenShoots Award goes to (sound of drumrolls, intake of breath, and tearing envelope): Santosh Ostwal of India, who created an ingenous irrigation control system rigged from mobile phone technology that...

...triggers irrigation pumps remotely – is saving water in India and helping more than 10,000 farmers avoid several taxing, dangerous long walks a day.

It's cheap to create, easy to use, works 24/7/365, and improves the lives of millions. Again, don't let the gubbermint know--they need the Indian peasantry to starve, so they can hold ConferencesOnStarvingIndianPeasants at Swiss ski resorts.

OS's charity of choice, to which he will donate in honor of Mr. Ostwal, is Heifer International. This organizations fights poverty one family at a time, with the simple tools of sound agricultural practice.

What a concept!

OS invites you to donate as well.

Happy New Year, ya'll. Stay sober, stay safe, and thanks for reading OS's scribble.

Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Victor Davis Hanson Rides His Bike Across Central California

This is sobering reading.

Hanson begins:

The last three weeks I have traveled about, taking the pulse of the more forgotten areas of central California. I wanted to witness, even if superficially, what is happening to a state that has the highest sales and income taxes, the most lavish entitlements, the near-worst public schools (based on federal test scores), and the largest number of illegal aliens in the nation, along with an overregulated private sector, a stagnant and shrinking manufacturing base, and an elite environmental ethos that restricts commerce and productivity without curbing consumption.

During this unscientific experiment, three times a week I rode a bike on a 20-mile trip over various rural roads in southwestern Fresno County. I also drove my car over to the coast to work, on various routes through towns like San Joaquin, Mendota, and Firebaugh. And near my home I have been driving, shopping, and touring by intent the rather segregated and impoverished areas of Caruthers, Fowler, Laton, Orange Cove, Parlier, and Selma.


OS urges you to read the balance of the essay.

Recovery and renewal can come, but if California began tomorrow to do absolutely everything right, it will take ten years to turn things around in any significant manner. Judging by November's ballot, they still lack the will to do so. OS fears that the impending attempts to bail this state's culture out with cash will only increase the long-term pain.

As things now stand, California is an object lesson for the rest of us in WhatNotToDo.

Kaziah Hancock And Her Soldier Boys: A Portrait Of Compassion

Some things just leave one speechless, and in tears.

God bless her.

Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Run, Alvin, Run!

Undaunted by his loss in the Senate race this November, South Carolina's Alvin Greene has filed to run for a newly-open House seat.

After all, he garnered 350,000 votes in the November race. There's a lot of love out there for the young man. And, just imagine the sort of contribution he could make for the Democrat caucus in D.C.!

Dream big, young man. Greatness awaits.

Scoring OS's 2010 Prediction List

It's interesting reading, ruminations from a year ago. So, in fairness, here's the list, admissions of being wide of the mark, and a few more or less on the money.

The 2010 list

1. We had 140 bank failures in 2009, mostly small fry.  We'll have 200 in 2010, and some of the 'bigger fish' will be among them. Some will not be the classical Friday afternoon raid scenario, as it will be difficult to find anyone able to take over these sick elephants.  A lot of TARP money will be lost next year.

Missed on that one. Calculated Risk reported last week. The FDIC is probably finished closing banks for the year. The total was 157 failures in 2010, up from 140 failures in 2009. There are now 919 banks on the 'problem list', with total assets of some $407 billion. The big banks have paid back their TARP advances, and are back to business as usual. HellsBells, the credit-card come-ons have begun appearing in OS mailbox again. Just like old times. Deja vu all over again.

2.  FDIC will have to admit it's insolvent, that insurance fees from the banks that behaved won't be enough to rescue their drunken cousins.  Treasury and/or Fed will have to kick in a bunch more money, and there will be a major stink.

Perhaps premature on that one. FDIC hasn't hit a crisis point yet, and here's hoping they don't. OS takes no joy in predicting future pain.

3.  Ford will be making cars and money, GM will be making cars and losing money, and Chrysler will no longer be with us.  Ford will make most of its money where it always has, on the F-150 pickup truck, because working America has to use a pickup truck to get its work done, and there is a real attrition of F-150's.  You know, a real market, not the one Himself and Miss Nancy dream of.

True, true(by any sort of honest accounting standards), and thankfully a prediction that did not come true. The F-150 did lead the charge for Ford. GM flogged shares at $33, to allow Treasury to get some of its money back. They've got to get their customer base back, and hopefully not go underwater at less than $33.

4.  There have been two Democrats, Tennessee Blue-Dogs, who have announced they will not run next fall, in addition to an Alabama Democrat who has switched parties. (He won't be back, because he'll be trounced by a black conservative in the spring primary.) I predict another 10 Democrat House members will head for the hills rather than face a furious electorate. GOP and Independents will pick up a total of 25 House seats. Miss Nancy will have a real problem on her hands.

Whooodathunkit. 63 GOP seats picked up in the House, 6 picked up in the Senate. Could have been more, but Harry Reid pulled out a squeaker, and California remained true-blue. The bigger news is the hundreds upon hundreds of utterly pissed-off conservative who ran for state house and senate seats, and won. The Democrat gerrymander is about to go down in flames. The Tea Party took aim at the appropriate target, namely, the scuzzbags who run the GOP as a country club.

5. There will be a massive market correction by June 2010, and the Administration and Fed will desperately try to pump it up again, to maintain the illusion that all is well. It won't work, it will be transparent this time, and it will really piss the voters off.  We will end 2010 with Dow 7700, S&P 700. Pension funds will bleed, and local governments will go through convulsions, long overdue.

Well, there was a pullback in midsummer, but OS completely underestimated the determination of the Fed to print money come what may. There is no logic to the securities markets, and it feels like a huge bubble. OS dipped in and out, made a few bucks, and left. The bleeding in pension funds and local governments lies ahead. The StimulusGasm of 2009 allowed everyone to pretend one more year.

6.  There will be the exposure of at least one more major financial scandal the magnitude of Madoff. Someone, somewhere, will expose a specific money trail from Washington to Wall Street and back again, with specific people attached. That someone will go through hell as the machinery of government is turned against him, but in the end heads will roll. Don't know if anyone will go to jail like Bernie did.

Can u say WikiLeaks? The story hasn't broken, but it will. Wait for it, be patient.

7. Sadly, sometime this year, we will have some major loss-of-life terrorist attack in either the US or UK, or both. Obama and company are both unwilling and unable to look reality in the eye.  We will recover, but it will be tragic.  I hope to Heaven I am utterly wrong on this one.

Thank Heaven, as of this date, OS is wrong. His opinion of the Obama administration remains unchanged. The UK foiled the UPS package bomb plot. BigSis concentrated on techniques of groping passengers, and appearing to be on the job. We still have a major angel on our national shoulder, since we didn't get hit.

8. There will be a major assassination attempt staged by the Islamists, in India, Pakistan, the Emirates or Saudi Arabia. It may succeed. I hope I am wrong on this one as well.

Happy to report OS was wrong on this one.

9.  Labour will be routed in the UK general election, but not before Gordon Brown attempts to impose some sort of 'state of emergency' to prevent the election from going forward. The UK electorate will finally tire of an unelected PM and unelectable government killing their country off. We can hope.

Yep, on the money, except that Brown was too discredited by the time the election arrived to stage a crisis. Good riddance, BTW. They need to fire the EU next. Here's hoping.

10. Obama will do nothing about Iran's nukes. The Israelis will.

On the money. The software attack was a stroke of genius, the kind only the Israelis can pull off. They also just assassinated one of the Iranian wonks in charge of undoing the damage, and injured the other. Two attacks, same day. Score one for the good guys. Obama has no intention of doing anything, as he hates Israel.

11. Tiger Woods will re-emerge after his divorce deal is inked. He'll play some European tour events, accompanied by Steve his caddy, his manager, and one person tasked with the job of keeping little Tiger's pants on, tucking him alone into his bed at night. He'll play the Open at St. Andrews, will be booed by the gallery, and will miss the cut by a wide margin. He will then begin to rehab for a 2011 comeback, but the old magic will definitely be gone, even if his golf comes back. Expect the fist pump to go away.

Pretty close. He came back, much chastened, played some good golf, lost the stupid fist-pump, and began acting a bit more human. He did well at The Open, and the gallery acted with real class. If he really really really learned some life lessons from the experience, perhaps his best years are ahead. If he gets it going too quickly, and the ego and fist pump returns, he's doomed. He'll screw up again, and there will be no grace left. Golf's equivalent of Pete Rose. Let's keep a good thought for him. Life is tragic enough without that kind of tragedy playing out.

12.  Again, I hope I'm wrong, but there will be violence at the polls in some locations in November 2010.  Feelings will be running very, very high.  I'll be voting early.

Feelings ran very high. Blessedly, OS was wrong about the violence. It is a real worry for him. Once the genie of political violence is let loose in the land, events have a way of taking horrible tragic turns. We don't want to go there. Anyone within earshot jabbering about it is someone to freaking avoid. Please.

Not a bad list, and the darkest predictions did not come true, blessedly.

Sunday, December 26, 2010

New York String Orchestra: Green Shoots Nominee

Music teaching in much of the United States consists of the following:

Mom-n-Dad, with a child eager to learn music(sometimes, sometimes not), engage a teacher with a good local reputation. Teacher teaches Junior some technique, and begins putting him/her through his Rota of favored pieces. That Rota ensures that both Teacher and Junior look good for Mom-n-Dad, who happily write checks. That Rota tends to omit any and all material that might expose weaknesses in Junior's technique and Teacher's grasp of musical styles.

Usually, Junior graduates from high school, heads to University and other interests, and can call up bits of pieces from the rota in the future. Junior marries, has children, and the process begins again.

Sometimes, Junior thinks that music will be a great profession. Junior enters a good conservatory/university music school, and is confronted by a Professor who sez: 'Let's hear a D harmonic minor scale, two octaves, please', and Junior sez: 'What's that?'. The Theory Graduate Assistant sez, 'Please write an A-major scale in both treble and bass clefs, and Junior sez: 'What's that?'.  The Orchestra Professor places a middle Haydn symphony on Junior's stand, and Junior sez: 'Who's that?'.

Two years of pain and torment follow, and Junior either survives the Trial By Fire (because Teacher's rota turns out to have been a house of cards), or heads off to pre-med or business, or worse, the Music Education major. On that track, Junior may well end up as a Teacher with a Rota...

If Junior joins the local Youth Orchestra, he/she is run through a standard Rota of about a dozen nineteenth-century Russian pieces, which sound impressive, and neglect such inconveniences as learning how to perform Bach, Mozart, or even get familiar with Beethoven and Bartok. That comes later, in the Trial By Fire, the reasoning goes. The immediate idea is to keep Mom-n-Dad writing checks, and everyone feeling good about themselves.

One effort, quietly underway since the late 1960's, runs counter to that grim march over the cultural cliff, The New York String Orchestra.

The New York Times reviewed its Christmas Eve concert, and the news is heartening. They were performing Mozart and Mendellssohn, not Rimsky-Korsakov and Shostakovich 5.


Green Shoots nominee. A donation link is found at the first link above.

If only we had about twenty such efforts in a nation of 380,000,000 people...

In Hoc Anno Domini: Vermont C. Royster

HT to Jesse, who as always, seems to have the wisest words to share:

Royster wrote for the Wall Street Journal from 1936-1971, with a break in the 1940's to captain a destroyer in the Pacific campaign. He was the long-time editor of the opinion page.

Royster was an extraordinary man from an extraordinary family, an encouraging fact which should remind us of the powerful influence we can all wield from our humble homes.

OS hopes you enjoy and appreciate Mr. Royster's message as much as he does, and that you will find it worthy to pass along to those you love.

In Hoc Anno Domini
By Vermont C. Royster
December 24, 1949

When Saul of Tarsus set out on his journey to Damascus the whole of the known world lay in bondage. There was one state, and it was Rome. There was one master for it all, and he was Tiberius Caesar.

Everywhere there was civil order, for the arm of the Roman law was long. Everywhere there was stability, in government and in society, for the centurions saw that it was so.

But everywhere there was something else, too. There was oppression -- for those who were not the friends of Tiberius Caesar. There was the tax gatherer to take the grain from the fields and the flax from the spindle to feed the legions or to fill the hungry treasury from which divine Caesar gave largess to the people. There was the impressor to find recruits for the circuses. There were executioners to quiet those whom the Emperor proscribed. What was a man for but to serve Caesar?

There was the persecution of men who dared think differently, who heard strange voices or read strange manuscripts. There was enslavement of men whose tribes came not from Rome, disdain for those who did not have the familiar visage. And most of all, there was everywhere a contempt for human life. What, to the strong, was one man more or less in a crowded world?

Then, of a sudden, there was a light in the world, and a man from Galilee saying, Render unto Caesar the things which are Caesar's and unto God the things that are God's.

And the voice from Galilee, which would defy Caesar, offered a new Kingdom in which each man could walk upright and bow to none but his God. Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my brethren, ye have done it unto me. And he sent this gospel of the Kingdom of Man into the uttermost ends of the earth.

So the light came into the world and the men who lived in darkness were afraid, and they tried to lower a curtain so that man would still believe salvation lay with the leaders.

But it came to pass for a while in divers places that the truth did set man free, although the men of darkness were offended and they tried to put out the light. The voice said, Haste ye. Walk while you have the light, lest darkness come upon you, for he that walketh in darkness knoweth not whither he goeth.

Along the road to Damascus the light shone brightly. But afterward Paul of Tarsus, too, was sore afraid. He feared that other Caesars, other prophets, might one day persuade men that man was nothing save a servant unto them, that men might yield up their birthright from God for pottage and walk no more in freedom.

Then might it come to pass that darkness would settle again over the lands and there would be a burning of books and men would think only of what they should eat and what they should wear, and would give heed only to new Caesars and to false prophets. Then might it come to pass that men would not look upward to see even a winter's star in the East, and once more, there would be no light at all in the darkness.

And so Paul, the apostle of the Son of Man, spoke to his brethren, the Galatians, the words he would have us remember afterward in each of the years of his Lord:

Stand fast therefore in the liberty wherewith Christ has made us free and be not entangled again with the yoke of bondage.